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Has digital photography reached a plateau?......
- Thread starter joyclick
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tex
Veteran Member
I'd say probably there will be some "exponential growth" in terms of capabilities, but maybe not coming quite as fast as before. This last 10 years has been pretty extraordinary in the history of photo tech, imo.
But I think we have reached a plateau in terms of users' needs and capabilities. In the former area, most decent cameras today, and many phones, satisfy most users' needs. In the latter, a decade ago it may have been that many cameras, if not most, were less capable than most experienced enthusiasts and pros. I don't think this is true anymore, rather the reverse.
But I think we have reached a plateau in terms of users' needs and capabilities. In the former area, most decent cameras today, and many phones, satisfy most users' needs. In the latter, a decade ago it may have been that many cameras, if not most, were less capable than most experienced enthusiasts and pros. I don't think this is true anymore, rather the reverse.
MoreorLess
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With current tech things have definitely slowed down, the big potential shift I'd guess will be if a sensor design that doesn't just read one colour per pixel and interpolate like Sigma's is really able to push performance.
In the near future cameras will have ISET. Shutter, AF sensors, Focus shift, Tilt, Shift, AE, HDR, Built-in graduated filters, Stabilzation, WB and of course Image capture and Capture orientation.
New inventions never imagined will be incorporated mainly to the sensors.
In-Sensor-Every-Thiing. Only Iris actuation will be left out for the lens. Everything else will be performed in and by the sensor with the help of numerous processors. That's why the present and the future belongs to the electronic firms.
"More pixels" will be forever, why not! Better, faster, quieter will be too. Plateaus will come and go.
Regards
New inventions never imagined will be incorporated mainly to the sensors.
In-Sensor-Every-Thiing. Only Iris actuation will be left out for the lens. Everything else will be performed in and by the sensor with the help of numerous processors. That's why the present and the future belongs to the electronic firms.
"More pixels" will be forever, why not! Better, faster, quieter will be too. Plateaus will come and go.
Regards
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canonvaggio
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MoreorLess
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Again I think the big shift will be full spectrum colour readouts per pixel and perhaps that recent concept of pixels that "reset" when "full". Better resolution, noise performance boosted a couple of stops and unlimted DR.
Not sure it will happen quickly though if it does at all, my guess would be at least 5-10 years down the line.
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mostlyboringphotog
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My vote would be, if the fill well can be reset when saturated, during the exposure, a high MP small size sensor can have lower base ISO and greater DR. Each reset can be counted and be added to the signal processing.
Bill Donnell
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Not much with DSLRs but growth in mirrorless.
Gato Amarillo
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Yes and no. I think the conventional Bayer-array sensor is near it's maximum potential. I am sure there will be something new in the future but it is likely a couple of years away from the market, at least.
In the meantime I expect improvements in image processing for refinements (though not great leaps) in image quality.
I see two big changes: Smaller cameras with fast, long zooms making interchangeable lenses less and less necessary, and continued merging of smart phone and camera features. I expect the serious camera of the (near) future will be something like a 1-inch sensor super-zoom with built-in smart phone and tablet functions. Larger cameras and "systems" will be reserved for well-off amateurs and the relatively tiny number of professionals who really need the big sensors.
Just my guess.
Gato
In the meantime I expect improvements in image processing for refinements (though not great leaps) in image quality.
I see two big changes: Smaller cameras with fast, long zooms making interchangeable lenses less and less necessary, and continued merging of smart phone and camera features. I expect the serious camera of the (near) future will be something like a 1-inch sensor super-zoom with built-in smart phone and tablet functions. Larger cameras and "systems" will be reserved for well-off amateurs and the relatively tiny number of professionals who really need the big sensors.
Just my guess.
Gato
I don't think any of these have peaked, though I can't see any of them really holding back the shots that most people want to take. One thing to consider is that new abilities often transfer into new expectations. The people harping for yet lower light cameras and faster lenses are shooting in darker conditions than any sane person would have tried with film.
I'm not sure we ever saw it. If we did, the coefficient was pretty small.
Limburger
Veteran Member
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The proper term is "matured."
And yes, digital camera technology has mostly matured. Most of the improvements moving forward will be incremental, not exponential. It's been this way for a few years now.
Brad Bohland
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“The industry and the state of technology is evolving or developing so quickly I frankly cannot guess what will be five years from now. I am not certain if you’d asked me this during January 2014 I could have predicted the state of affairs today, Dec 1, 2014, just one year later.” stated Henry Posner, Director of Corporate Communications at B&H Photo Video Pro Audio in NYC.
http://www.thephoblographer.com/201...k-manufacturers-envision-future/#.Vg1SAW7wBM4
How can image sensors - the most complicated and expensive part of a digital camera - be made cheaper and less complex? Easy: take the lid off a memory chip and use that instead. All very clever, you might say, but why would anyone want to do that? The answer is that the two types of sensor chips used in today's digital cameras store the brightness of each pixel as an analogue signal. To translate this into a form that can be stored digitally, they need complex, bulky, noise-inducing circuitry....A memory chip needs none of this conversion circuitry, as it creates digital data directly. As a result, says Vetterli, the memory cell will always be 100 times smaller than CMOS sensor cells... http://www.computerweekly.com/feature/The-future-of-digital-cameras-memory-is-the-new-iris
These technologies depict a future that will look much more clear, colorful, and life-like with the help of future camera tech. http://www.makeuseof.com/tag/5-camera-technologies-will-change-way-take-pictures/
http://www.thephoblographer.com/201...k-manufacturers-envision-future/#.Vg1SAW7wBM4
How can image sensors - the most complicated and expensive part of a digital camera - be made cheaper and less complex? Easy: take the lid off a memory chip and use that instead. All very clever, you might say, but why would anyone want to do that? The answer is that the two types of sensor chips used in today's digital cameras store the brightness of each pixel as an analogue signal. To translate this into a form that can be stored digitally, they need complex, bulky, noise-inducing circuitry....A memory chip needs none of this conversion circuitry, as it creates digital data directly. As a result, says Vetterli, the memory cell will always be 100 times smaller than CMOS sensor cells... http://www.computerweekly.com/feature/The-future-of-digital-cameras-memory-is-the-new-iris
These technologies depict a future that will look much more clear, colorful, and life-like with the help of future camera tech. http://www.makeuseof.com/tag/5-camera-technologies-will-change-way-take-pictures/
Good gawd, what a mashup of words from Vetterli. A digital memory chip STORES digital data presented to it; it does not create digital data directly. And popping the lid off a memory chip would not turn it into a sensor. Sensor processes have special processing steps that enable the creation of a photon-collecting sensel. Yes, each sensel has additional transistors besides the sensing patch - about 6; but traditional RAM has at least 4. When you get to the newest Intel invention, their memristor-based NVRAM, then you get to a canonical minimum.
If what Vetterli is alluding to is the use of fine-pitch processes used by RAM manufacturers in sensors, well, that makes sense as far as it goes - and in fact, it's what Fossum relies on to create the hundreds of millions of sensels that his photon-counting sensor requires. But you still need to have high analog quality to the device you use - digital logic works because it has only two (or a small number of) states chosen to be well away from the fuzziness of a fundamental device noise level (overdriven analog, if you will). Certainly fine-pitch digital processes are needed for A7rII-level processing, but Sony's stacked sensors are possibly a better way of doing this, and certainly allow for better dissipation of heat that can compromise sensor performance.
M
meland
Guest
Regardless of whether there are further improvements in imaging technology, and there probably will be, it is a question of whether those improvements will be enough to cause people to rush out and upgrade or buy for the first time.
My feeling is that apart from a few enthusiasts and serial up-graders the stuff we have is good enough already. It already satisfies. In that respect there is less incentive for manufacturers to spend large amounts of money on R&D when the net result could well be no more sales even if they do.
My feeling is that apart from a few enthusiasts and serial up-graders the stuff we have is good enough already. It already satisfies. In that respect there is less incentive for manufacturers to spend large amounts of money on R&D when the net result could well be no more sales even if they do.
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