The Endgame is Beginning

Started Apr 5, 2015 | Discussions thread
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ksrk Regular Member • Posts: 150
The Endgame is Beginning
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The consternation and anguish at falling digital camera sales numbers is well known . The numbers have well dissected and discussed in the past few years that recent CIPA numbers do not probably draw that much attention and public discussion as previously. Fait Accompli. Tom Hogan ofcourse keeps up his tireless analysis.

2014 yearly numbers were out at the start of Feb 2015 , which is around 43.4 million units in total shipments and since then Jan and Feb 2015 shipment numbers have been published. Jan 2015 numbers plunged 20% from Dec 2014 and Feb 2015 reports similar numbers.

CIPA predicts 34.7 M units for 2015, which does seem rather unlikely , consdering that CIPA has been giving optimistic estimates since 2010, those estimates have never been met.

I assume the following -

Also assumed No decline in Mirrorless - numbers remain static at 3M units per year

With that I come to the following projection:-

I think that  the numbers till now , fit a normal distribution perfectly - as they do a maturing and then declining market. The breathtakingly sharp decline from 100 M to 43 M in just 2 years or 121 M to 43 M in 4 years may moderate  ( I hope) and gradually taper from now on. On the other hand smartphone camera technology is yet to mature and smartphone adoption in developing ecomonies is about to happen in the scale in whch it happened in developed markets. So the 29.6 M compact number may rapidly gallop towards sub 5 M  in three years.

In either case the endgame seems to be clear - there is no terminal event or end in that sense, however after 3-4 years the vendors will exist in a small static market with no growth ( and no decline either), but which surely will be profitable for some of them if not all. Standalone photographic gear will go back to pros and serious photographers.

 ksrk's gear list:ksrk's gear list
Canon PowerShot SD1200 IS Kodak EasyShare Z980 Samsung NX1000 Canon EOS 700D Samsung NX 20-50mm F3.5-5.6 ED +5 more
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