Is this the year Pentax makes or breaks your FF dream?

Started Jul 16, 2014 | Discussions thread
justin23 Veteran Member • Posts: 4,347
Re: Lesson in economics

Leandros S wrote:

justin23 wrote:

Leandros S wrote:

John_A_G wrote:

zakaria wrote:

2 years to 5 this system will be as full frame price. I MO.
pentaxian .

Why do you think cost will come down so rapidly?

Larger sensor, requiring larger optics and very small production runs. No manufacturing competition for sensors. There is nothing driving the cost down on that platform.

That's the chicken and egg fallacy in a lot of people's thinking. As the price goes down, so do the manufacturing costs because demand increases. Manufacturing costs are only relatively high as long as demand is low. Additionally, there are diminishing returns - small suppliers can reduce their costs more effectively in response to added demand than large suppliers can. So as demand increases, the gap between high volume and low volume producers closes.

Demand isn't growing for FF though. Its growing for mirrorless and smaller cameras.

When prices go down, demand goes up. I don't think the downward trend in FF is big enough to not see demand increase when new price points are announced - that's the whole basis of retail dropping prices, after all. You can create new demand even for old cameras if you push the price low enough.

In any case, we weren't talking about full frame. This part of the thread follows from the suggestion that the 645D lineage is Pentax' answer to full frame. So demand projections for full frame are not all that relevant. Demand for "medium format" would be.

Yes demand does go up when prices come down, but all prices tend to come down as well, so while the latest FF might be $3-4k, and cheapest FF $2k, MF might get down to $5-6k and aps-c and m4/3 could be easily under $1k for the best of those formats.

People can often afford the more expensive model, the more expensive lens, more expensive car etc, but unless they see the value they still won't buy it.

Also FF prices have been coming down, but overall market share hasn't grown.  MF is probably in the same boat, given there is only 1 MF that an amateur can realistically afford.

I'm happy to be proved wrong in the next say 2-5 years.  These same arguments though have been around for 10+ years and FF has come down a lot in price and the market share isn't growing that much.

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