The Economist article on mirrorless cameras

Started Jun 7, 2014 | Discussions thread
Philnw2 Veteran Member • Posts: 3,033
Re: It won't take years, just 1 year

Erik Magnuson wrote:

Philnw2 wrote:

I agree with your comment, except for the last sentence. It won't take a lot of years

In the last CIPA report, for Jan, Feb March of 2014,

Column 4 is for Jan Feb Mar of 2014 compared to the same period a year previously.

A. DSLRs shipments were 82.7% for this 3 months from the previous year, 2.1 million cameras

B. Mirrorless shipments were 115.7% for this 3 months from the previous year, 0.7 million cameras

In the last 6 months there have been 8 new mirrorless models (excluding non-Japanese makers) and only 4 new DSLR/SLTs (1200D/D3300/A77-II/D4s.) Since this is shipments and not sales, you should expect that new models would dominate so as to fill the distribution channel.

So for ILC sales, mirrorless is currently about 1/3 of overall ILC sales. At this rate,

Assuming "this rate" carries forward is a huge assumption.

Thanks for the replies from everyone, i always like a good dialogue.

First - the institution that puts out the cipa data assumes, as they often state, that shipments are equal to sales.  The reason is that all shipped cameras eventually get sold, if not at list, through sales, etc.  Distribution and retail companies, i assume, call for less shipments if they are getting overwhelmed with unsold stock.

Second - This is the first time I can recall where cipa data shows dslr sales dropping and mirrorless on the increase year on year.  And its not just the shipment data.  The recent Camera Store review of AF speed on a motocross track in good light (it wouldn't work so well for mirrorless in poor light) shows how far mirrorless has come.  And it wasn't just one make that made dramatic improvement in AF speed, it was Fuji, Olympus, Panasonic and Sony.  And last year, many pundits picked Sony A7 series as the camera of the year - a mirrorless FF ILC that challenges the DSLR in its capabilities.

Third. I've seen various naysayers that 2013 were saying it'll take 5 to 10 years for mirrorless to dominate.  When i say dominate, BTW, i'm only meaning in current sales, they will take more than 50% of the ILC market share.  I make no predictions on percent of existing cameras in use as far a camera share - not even sure if anyone even knows how to estimate that number.

Of course, this is an assumption on my part.  I may be totally wrong, but even none of the camera companies predicted the collapse of the PS cameras and the drop in dslr sales in the last 2 years.  My point is that things are happening far faster than anyone predicted in the camera community.

Anyway, thanks for the dialogue!!!

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