Dear Canon, please say something!

Started Feb 4, 2014 | Discussions thread
John_A_G Veteran Member • Posts: 7,542
Re: Please get real

Bernie_King wrote:

John_A_G wrote:

Jerry-astro wrote:

You might not see a niche there (since you seem hell bent on the idea that FF is a viable replacement for high end crop -- we strongly disagree on that point), but I sure do. Time will tell whether Canon agrees.

You may have plenty of strong opinions, but like me, you have zero data to bring to the table in support of them. So saying "you're not going to get what you want" might be some nice posturing on your part, but it's meaningless. You don't know any more than the rest of us.

Jerry - Absolutely we are all just giving our opinions. Now, why do I think Canon wants to push full frame for high end cameras? Because, that's what Canon's CEO of Imaging has actually said:

" Now that full frame is appearing in cameras the size and price of the 6D, the future of APS-C at the semi-pro level is in doubt, he says: 'That's something we're considering at the moment. From our semi-pro users there's still demand for APS-C but in the future, I think we will see an increase in the number of full-frame models.' "

Again, I've laid out the business case for why Canon is unlikely to provide an $1800 aps-c DSLR with 10fps and 5dIII focus:

1) too much impact to 5dIII which plenty of sports photographers have adopted. 5dIII is going to have a higher profit margin because there's less competition than the APS-C market.

Still say the 5DIII is a much different animal than a 7D2 would be. Plenty of sports photographers may have purchased a 5D III, but there are plenty of who haven't or won't. Not everyone wants full frame and will have to be dragged kicking and screaming.

Oh I agree people don't want to go full frame. I'm not arguing full frame is better. I merely point you back to what Canon has gone on record as saying. They WANT you to go full frame. They don't WANT that because it will make them less money than providing APS-C. And, what those APS-C shooters want is only relevant if their demands can be satisfied by someone else.

2) There is currently no competition to the 7d/d300s to force Canon to do it. So, what buying option do people who want a 7dII have?

The 5D3 is not a viable replacement for the 7D simply because it's way too expensive. It costs more than my 1D3 when I bought it new. There needs to be a middle ground camera that moves people in that direction.

No, there doesn't. Again, There only NEEDS to be one if the market dictates there is one. Canon didn't provide the 7d out of the kindness of their hearts. They provided it because Nikon came out with the d300s. Again, you can re-read what Canon actually said on the matter to learn their preference - which is full frame, not APS-C. Only competition will likely change their mind.

The 6D is a poor performer in this space, and APS-C is cheap and still in high demand. They may not make as much on 1 7D2 as 1 5D3, but they'll sell three times or more as many 7D2's.

The fact that Canon pushed the flagship into full frame and came out with the 6d says they believe full frame is more profitable long term at the high end.  Whether they are correct or not who knows.  But look at their behavior.  As you said a 7dII would be easy and yet it doesn't exist.

As far as competition, how do you know? Because Nikon hasn't announced anything? I have a feeling Canon and Nikon have a better idea about what each other are doing than we do. Nowhere has Nikon announced that camera won't be produced.

No, I don't know what competition is coming just what is already at market.  What we do know is that Canon is on record as saying they believe the future is full frame, not aps-c for high end.  What we do know is that while a 7d would be easy to cobble together Canon has not done so.

3) Canon themselves have already told us their long term direction for high end is full frame, not APS-C

When the xxD series and the Rebels start showing up full frame, then we'll see APS-C start to die. Until that it will live and it will be easy to recycle higher end features into the smaller cameras. The 70D 19pt AF that it inherited from the 7D is an example. Don't forget that the 7D completely outperformed the 5D2 at the time (except for ISO performance) yet the 5D2 was a successful camera

No one said anything about APS-C dying.  Read what Canon CEO of Imaging actually said - the future of HIGH END is full frame.  xxD and Rebels are not high end.

I'm sorry if these are difficult concepts for you to grasp. But, they're pretty sensible to anyone who isn't just thinking with their heart

It's not that people don't grasp your concepts, they really only make sense to a full-frame die hard.

I'm not a full frame die hard by any stretch.  I absolutely understand the benefits of aps-c.  But Canon isn't pushing the market to full frame because they believe it's less profitable than aps-c.  It doesn't take an MBA to figure that out.

From an economic standpoint, a 7D2 makes perfect sense. The ability to recycle parts from other cameras means low R&D costs, even lower fabrication costs, and a price tag that will generate serious profits.

Unfortunately, you drastically oversimplify things.  First, you have 1 and only 1 camera with canon's latest focus system and processing power to drive 10 fps.  The components involved there aren't coming from the 70d.

Next, you have the additional costs of the magnesium alloy body which doesn't exist and the seals - not part of existing manufacturing run.  Moreover though, you are ignoring the concept of product line segregation.  Weighing in to the decision is the damage Canon believes offering such a camera would do to their sales of existing higher margin items.  All these professional sports shooters you know (and by my definition a professional is earning the majority of their income from photography - not a $8000 side business) have only 2 options:

1) buy another 7d whose profits are all gravy since Canon has long ago achieved their pay-back for the program.

2) Buy a higher margin 5dIII or 1dX.  And then, very likely be forced to buy some longer glass

Now, these full time professionals aren't switching to Pentax.  And, what benefit to switching to Nikon or Sony?  None really.  There's really no 7dII comparable camera in those systems at the price point you want.  So, when those professional sports shooters you know need new equipment to do their jobs, what are they going to do?

With the volume of sales such a camera would generate, the profits would certainly be there.

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