Dear Canon, please say something!

Started Feb 4, 2014 | Discussions thread
Jerry-astro Veteran Member • Posts: 9,727
Re: Please get real

Very, very well said. I had no problem grasping John's "logic" and argument which makes sense if you view FF as a be-all-end-all. And, in spite of the arrogant tone to the end of his post, I can defintely understand his perpective. Problem is, not everyone subscribes to his FF-centric view of the future. As a long time product marketer, I think I "get" the difference between a strategic view and thinking with your heart. Not sure that he can view this dispassionately since he sees the move to FF as both inevitable and imminent. Inevitable... perhaps. Imminent... doubtful IMHO. Will be interesting to see how this unfolds.

Bernie_King wrote:

John_A_G wrote:

Jerry-astro wrote:

You might not see a niche there (since you seem hell bent on the idea that FF is a viable replacement for high end crop -- we strongly disagree on that point), but I sure do. Time will tell whether Canon agrees.

You may have plenty of strong opinions, but like me, you have zero data to bring to the table in support of them. So saying "you're not going to get what you want" might be some nice posturing on your part, but it's meaningless. You don't know any more than the rest of us.

Jerry - Absolutely we are all just giving our opinions. Now, why do I think Canon wants to push full frame for high end cameras? Because, that's what Canon's CEO of Imaging has actually said:

" Now that full frame is appearing in cameras the size and price of the 6D, the future of APS-C at the semi-pro level is in doubt, he says: 'That's something we're considering at the moment. From our semi-pro users there's still demand for APS-C but in the future, I think we will see an increase in the number of full-frame models.' "

Again, I've laid out the business case for why Canon is unlikely to provide an $1800 aps-c DSLR with 10fps and 5dIII focus:

1) too much impact to 5dIII which plenty of sports photographers have adopted. 5dIII is going to have a higher profit margin because there's less competition than the APS-C market.

Still say the 5DIII is a much different animal than a 7D2 would be. Plenty of sports photographers may have purchased a 5D III, but there are plenty of who haven't or won't. Not everyone wants full frame and will have to be dragged kicking and screaming. I know plenty of pros who are going to be nursing their 1D IV's till they die before moving to full frame. As far as profit margins go, you must be crazy if you think there's higher margins in full frame sensors compared to APS-C. They could build the 7D2 with the rumored specs with basically parts from the spares bin. 70D sensor, 5d3 (or maybe the old 1 series) AF, 70D LCD, Old 7D frame, etc... When you consider the economies of scale when it comes to the sensor cost alone, they likely could build a 7D2 for near the same money as a 70D, and still get an extra $800. On the other hand they're not going to leave the huge price gap between the 70D and the 5D3 open for the competition to exploit. I think it's more likely that someone who was interested in a 7D2 would punt down to a 70D before shelling out an extra 1200 on a 5D3.

2) There is currently no competition to the 7d/d300s to force Canon to do it. So, what buying option do people who want a 7dII have?

The 5D3 is not a viable replacement for the 7D simply because it's way too expensive. It costs more than my 1D3 when I bought it new. There needs to be a middle ground camera that moves people in that direction. The 6D is a poor performer in this space, and APS-C is cheap and still in high demand. They may not make as much on 1 7D2 as 1 5D3, but they'll sell three times or more as many 7D2's. As far as competition, how do you know? Because Nikon hasn't announced anything? I have a feeling Canon and Nikon have a better idea about what each other are doing than we do. Nowhere has Nikon announced that camera won't be produced.

3) Canon themselves have already told us their long term direction for high end is full frame, not APS-C

When the xxD series and the Rebels start showing up full frame, then we'll see APS-C start to die. Until that it will live and it will be easy to recycle higher end features into the smaller cameras. The 70D 19pt AF that it inherited from the 7D is an example. Don't forget that the 7D completely outperformed the 5D2 at the time (except for ISO performance) yet the 5D2 was a successful camera

I'm sorry if these are difficult concepts for you to grasp. But, they're pretty sensible to anyone who isn't just thinking with their heart

It's not that people don't grasp your concepts, they really only make sense to a full-frame die hard. From an economic standpoint, a 7D2 makes perfect sense. The ability to recycle parts from other cameras means low R&D costs, even lower fabrication costs, and a price tag that will generate serious profits. With the volume of sales such a camera would generate, the profits would certainly be there.

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