Who's FF system will be in the best shape 5 years from now?

Started Nov 15, 2013 | Discussions thread
007peter Forum Pro • Posts: 11,477
more thins CHANGE, more they stay the SAME. 1. Canon 2. Nikon 3. Sony

Dennis wrote:

My gut feeling is that Nikon & Canon will continue to dominate, but that the Sony FF system will become a strong 3rd place player.

Yup. That is how things are: the more they change, the more they stay the same:

Biggest DSLR (SLT) players:

  • Canon
  • Nikon
  • Sony (SLT)

Biggest Full Frame Camera

  • Canon
  • Nikon
  • Sony (new FE-mount)

5 years is a long time for sony to buildup a nice lens lineup.  The price of entry-level-FF will be less than $999 in 5 years (Sony A7 is already $1699 today)

When that happen: I expect the death of enthusiast APS-C and Micro43 that cost over $1000:

canon 7d, canon 70d, nikon d7200/7100/7000, Panasonic GH3/4/5, Olympus E-m1, m2, m3, m4

I also expect the continue erosion by Smartphone in 5 years:

point/shoot is deader than dead (like an iPOD / MP3 players)

Entry-Level-M43 and APS-C DSLR will be in danger dying as well:

As smartphone cpu grows faster, with more cores, more processing power, more memory, etc... People no longer feel the need to spend over $500 on any camera to take photo/video of their daughter/sons playing sports.  Today, I've seen many parents shoot 1080p action video instead of buying a bulky DSLR with continuous AF.  I predict this trend to continue, fast video is overtaking the need for DSLR in causal sports shoot for most family.  When that happen, the last advantage of DSLR is eliminated.  Mirrorless couldn't killed DSLR, but SmartPhone will kill everyone else.  I predict a future of only (1) smartphones and (2) FF camera.  Everything else get squeeze out by the market.

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