Why Pentax Need a New Mount Now

Started Nov 13, 2013 | Discussions thread
moving_comfort Veteran Member • Posts: 8,231
FF makes sense

WD wrote:

marike6 wrote:

An FX Pentax DSLR would make you very happy, but it would appear to be a financial disaster for Ricoh/Pentax.

The percentage of Canikon owners who bought into FX is small compared to DX. Only 500,000 D800 sold in @18mo. (according to Thom Hogan). Current projections for annual DSLR Nikon sales are 4,500,000. Estimates of the FX market are generally between 12%-15% of DSLR sales on the high side.

This is not a small amount.  Considering body sales alone and per-unit profit, that probably represents between $250 million USD and $500 million profit for Nikon, to be put toward ROI or just bank, in 18 months.  That doesn't include the margins on the lenses and peripherals that could go with each body sale.

If Pentax could do 1/10 of that - and up a tier from aps-c they might even be able to do a higher percentage - they could see $25 to $50 million profit on a body alone over that timeframe.  We'd assume it's an ROI that would make sense, as they already have the infrastructure built from their aps-c lines and they will share a lot of components, software, etc.

Pro shooters won't give up their Canikon systems to switch. Too much invested and the system is so much more mature.

Don't need to, 'pro' is actually a small % of the overall FF market.

Some Canikon enthusiasts might switch. However, these users are generally heavily invested in lenses etc., so the number might be very small. Realistically, this leaves current Pentax owners who upgrade as a predictable market. Will enough current Pentax owners upgrade to produce a positive return for Pentax?

It's also going to include a percentage of upgraders from mounts that don't currently offer FF, not just Pentax shooters.

Considering everything, is an FX Pentax likely on Ricoh's radar. I'm afraid you have better odds winning the lottery than buying an FX Pentax. Of course, it's only my opinion.

It absolutely is on their radar, we've had spoke-persons say so.  We just don't know if it's right off the bow or if it's still out on the horizon


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