Olympus profit - the cat is out of the bag (a little early)

Started Oct 29, 2013 | Discussions thread
Aberaeron Senior Member • Posts: 6,396
Re: on that forecasted 86% uptick

MichaelKJ wrote:

Eamon Hickey wrote:

Abrak wrote:

For the first half they sold 250k mirror less (market share around 17%). In the whole of last year they sold 710k. They are going for 410k in 2H and an 86% uptick in 1H/2H sales.

This one really raises my eyebrows. In addition to being an 86% uptick over the first half of the year, it would be a 41% year-on-year increase, as Olympus notes in their presentation. In a year when, so far, everybody, including Olympus, is down year-over-year in units and both Canon and Nikon are projecting year-over-year net unit decreases. (Canon's fiscal year is offset by 3 months, however.)

And for perspective, in Nikon's 2Q report, they project an 8% increase in ILC unit sales in 2H 2014 vs. 1H -- in other words, covering the exact same period where Olympus is projecting an 86% uptick.

I think Olympus must have several new ILC products coming in late winter/early spring 2014 for this forecast to be anything but bald fantasy, but, even so, it's so wildly optimistic compared to every other camera company, it makes me wonder what's being smoked in the Olympus offices.

Finally, even if they achieve that miracle, their mirrorless unit sales in FY 2014 (i.e. this year, more or less) will be 7% lower than last year. That actually would be a pretty good result, given that the market overall appears headed for a 10-20% decline in units, but again, it depends on a remarkable, and completely exceptional, performance from now until the end of March 2014.

One really does have to wonder what's behind such a wildly optimistic forecast. Let's hope that production isn't currently being ramped up based on a projected 86% increase in 2H.

I do think it is good that Olympus is finally dumping most of their compacts and downsizing. I also think most of us would agree that the E-M1 will be a success. However, given the down market and intense competition, I'm less optimistic about PEN sales.

Let's hope that they do ramp production up and flood the market with new advanced bargain cameras that people will buy by the truckload is what I say. Why not?

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