Why DX mirrorless will replace FX DSLR (for most photographers)

Started Nov 3, 2013 | Discussions thread
stuntmonkey
stuntmonkey Senior Member • Posts: 2,728
Why a Mirrorless Future is Still Far Off
2

One of the things about forecasting trends is that you can't describe *what* will be happening without also mentioning *who* will be doing it. For a couple of years now we've been hearing that mirrorless will cannibalize DSLR's, and given the march of technology that will probably be true. But....
Let's ballpark the market shares: (I'm thinking revenue here, but you can make a mental adjustment to units with some reasonable guessing)
Canon 40%
Nikon 35%
Sony 15%
Others 10%
See the problem? Olympus and Panasonic haven't made any headway all these years, and aren't profitable. Fuji appeals to enthusiasts but hasn't reached the fat middle of the market. Sony has the most long-term potential but is currently dwarfed by Canon and Nikon and has a way to go to match either'sa support infrastructure.
In other words, 75% of the market is invested in selling DSLR's, not mirrorless. Neither of these two companies have made any serious moves (Nikon 1 or EOS M) towards turning their DSLR customers into mirrorless customers. For all of the potential that Sony has, even if they doubled their market share, they would still only have half as much share as the big two... notwithstanding the challenge that sudden surges in sales has on servicing and support.
That's the supply side of the equation. The demand side is that people want smaller and lighter, are aware of the benefits and know that the trade off isn't as great as it used to be. However, demand isn't enough to change the direction of a company unless there is an impetus to do so. Right now, switching DX to a hypothetical mDX for Nikon means abandoning the sunk costs of selling a DSLR's, they're not going to willingly harm that revenue stream unless the switch is financially greater or because of pressure from competition... which is not that strong at the moment.

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