Mirrorless shipments surge....

Started Nov 1, 2013 | Discussions thread
peevee1 Veteran Member • Posts: 6,247
Re: Delta between mirrorless and SLRs has moved only fractionally

Abrak wrote:

boggis the cat wrote:

peevee1 wrote:

The better metric is the "Jan.-Sep." comparison relative to last year. 'SLR' production is at 78.5% of last year whereas 'other' (includes "mirrorless") is at 77.8%. That doesn't seem very good.

You are looking at some wrong place.

I quoted production, not revenue. The OP was on about production.

Jan-Sep - worldwide revenue from DSLRs 82.4% of the same period previous year.

Non-reflex (meaning mirrorless) - 94.5%.

For medium-to-long term future sales, Asia market (the only long-term growth market among the specifically listed there, and already the biggest) excluding Japan is the most interesting:

DSLRs - 77.2%.

Mirrorless - 101.9%.

Quite a difference.

You have to factor in that DSLRs still dwarf 'mirrorless' (the category is "other"), so that 2% revenue increase is blown away by the 23% loss on a much larger revenue.

The situation is not healthy for anyone.

Nikon are responding with the DF, and it seems likely that all manufacturers will shift to EVFs and higher end equipment as soon as they can in order to reduce production costs and increase margin.

The numbers for Asia dont really surprise. A major stumbling block for the penetration of mirrorless is the existing stock of some 250m legacy lenses. There is a high barrier to entry for anyone to switch from his DSLR to a mirrorless - maybe they might buy a mirrorless as a supplementary system.

Given that most DSLR buyers buy Rebels and D3x00 and use them with kit lenses only (which have no value by themselves on used market), lenses are not such a big deal.

In markets where there is a lower penetration of ILC camera users to begin with, you might expect mirrorless to fair pretty well and do worse in markets which are more mature - which is roughly what you see.

Conversely, Canikon are in fact doing rather well due to lens sales. The 18% rise in FF lens sales in the first 9 months, pretty much makes up for the decline in DSLR sales, especially if as one suspects, lens margins are higher than ILC margins (gateway drug effect).

The stat I find most remarkable is that the lens market alone is now bigger than the whole of the point and shoot market.

The old lens system (and large used market) is also impediment to sell many new lenses - after all, many people already have what they need or can buy cheaply from the dying generation. I think it is the main logic behind E-mount instead of A-mount in A7/A7r, although it makes very little technical sense (short distance between rear element and sensor on FF make angles of light extreme, leading to unrecoverable color smearing on sensors with color filter array, and other problems; and for reasonably close focus the missed throat has to be added to lenses instead).

I guess Canon and Nikon will finally cave in and issue FF mirrorless with their DSLR mounts and their camera profits will soar (a EVF is so much cheaper than FF flipping mirror and mechanism and FF pentaprism and separate FF AF system and AF metering system and FF OVF taken together - I suspect there is something like $500 cost savings right there). Plus you can use the free space for rear filters, and sell the filters, taking money from Hoya etc.

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