Nikon's 5 year plan...

Started Oct 23, 2013 | Discussions thread
Cyrille Berger Junior Member • Posts: 44
Re: Nikon's 5 year plan...

The problem with analysts is that they are more often wrong than rights. Enron and Lehman had the highest rating the day before their fall. But if analysts are right once, they become oracles, and get a lot of influence, on investors and bankers, the main conscequence for Nikon is that they could have more trouble to get money (assuming japanese banks read the FT which I find doubtful).

What the author misses is that DSLR can become a niche market and companies operating in that market can do just fine on the long term. For smartphone, it is more difficult, there is nothing you can do with a blackberry that you can't do with an other brand, in fact, that is the biggeat mistake of blackberry, they thought that blackberry messenging was enough to give them an advantage on the competition, they were wrong. However, even if the quality of smartphone camera improves, you will allways get better results with larger sensor and larger lenses, meaning that the DSLR/high end photograhy market is not going away anytime soon. And Nikon will not earn as much money, but they will keep existing. We will also get less new products, but then as the market reach maturity, it is to be expected, especially since at the same time the progress in sensor technology is slowing down. Also, Nikon is at its core an optic company, they do a lot more than just camera and lenses, and there is no reason for them to lose ground in those areas, and they will still be able to innovate in this area and to produce great lenses. Of course, with the loss of the P&S market, Nikon will have to scale down, and unfortunately they will have to fire some employees. Also, some of the R&D cost that was spread on the whole camera range will be only on DSLR/V1, meaning higher cost for us.

Overall, the biggest threat to Nikon could come from the raise of cheap Chinese manufacturers, they could come and eat up the low end DSLR market, and that would significatively reduce the ability of Nikon to keep operating its pro line, there is more synergy between D3x00 and D4, than between the coolpix and DSLR. It is what has basically hapened in the telescope market, until 20 years ago, the biggest manufacturers were in the US and Japan, now most of the production is in China, and the chinese companies have even bought the older brands. Nowdays, all the affordable telescopes are Chinese made, and only the more specialized, custom made stuff is left in Japan, US and Europe. And this could very well hapen to DSLR.

 Cyrille Berger's gear list:Cyrille Berger's gear list
Nikon D600 Nikon 1 J3 Nikon AF Nikkor 180mm f/2.8D ED-IF Tokina AT-X Pro 11-16mm f/2.8 DX Tokina AT-X Pro 100mm f/2.8 Macro +3 more
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