Warming whoops: Scientists debate the falling rate of rising temperatures

Started Sep 18, 2013 | Discussions thread
Roger99 Forum Pro • Posts: 10,799
Re: There's only one little question

heinzguderian wrote:

My concern wit all this is that they were so sure they knew what was happening, but patently they did not understand how the system works. The models were fundamentally wrong.

I am quite happy to accept revised models, that is what science is all about, but if we go with what you say about observing data, then that shows us that despite a huge increase in CO2, temperatures have not risen. The oceans appear to be another model, which, quite frankly, I have little confidence in.

That's a misconception.  The models have always been evolving and it has always been stated as such.  In the eighties the oil companies latched on to the fact that outcomes were uncertain and exploited this to disprove the science in the public sphere.  There has never really been any doubt that there would be detrimental effects but there have been (as there usually is in science) two or three models.  The old cooling earth model only lasted about ten years until readings showed another trend.  The outcome of this isn't off the table though because if the north Atlantic conveyor fails we will have an ice age but aside from this warming has been the trend for decades now.  Here in Melbourne for example we have been getting tornadoes where we never had them before for about ten years now and this year has been one of about five when we have been getting a number of summer electrical storms in mid September when normally we would get one around mid December.  Cyclone seasons are more energetic, massive flooding is now annual rather than every seven to ten years and bushfire seasons are flat out every year.  Temperatures are certainly rising.

As for Ocean models they are simpler to predict and they are going as expected.  Acidity is increasing in the oceans to the point that creatures that rely on calcium deposition to develop exoskeletons and shells have a reduced shell density 2/3rds of what they were getting 20 years ago and we have been getting massive jelly fish swarms that have been demolishing already strained fishing sites.  You should go to Japan and talk to fishermen.  They have no doubt as to what is happening.  Same as the farmers in most parts of the world.  They are traditionally a conservative voice that have observed the changes reported and don't dispute them.

I see that it is worth considering that Australia is the first region that changes like this tend to be observed before they reach other countries and it is easy to sell a lot of Americans on the idea that nothing is really happening but here it is for the most part accepted as common knowledge.  Everyone has noticed that something is happening.

All I can really say is that if you want more certainty from your scientists then let them do their job.

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The one serious conviction one should hold is that nothing should be taken too seriously.
It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain an idea without necessarily accepting it. -Aristotle
..oh, and I see by the lack of responses that I am right yet again.

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