Why Thom is wrong...

Started Sep 25, 2013 | Discussions thread
stevo23 Forum Pro • Posts: 19,698
Re: Think about it...warning, long post.

Beach Bum wrote:

stevo23 wrote:

Richard wrote:

And Mirrorless is dead. Now before you go getting emotional, ponder the logic.

1.DSLRs act like mirrorless as they are right now. They push the mirror out of the way when they go into live view. The first objection is that the AF is faster on mirrorless, sure using on sensor AF on a DSLR. Right now that is true but if you think Canonikon is going to sit on the hands and not improve live view to the point it is better than current mirrorless, I think they are smarter than that. It will happen or Canonikon will die. Mirrorless will lose the AF advantage in live view.

2. Canikon already have EVF, on the back of the camera for live view. They also can use a laptop, tablet or smart phone as a remote. They have had this for some time. Mirrorless has no advantage there.

3. Canikon can make smaller dslrs with APS-C that will be able to compete with mirrorless or they can produce better EOSM and V1 units. Again, they cover Pro, Advanced amateur, beginner, small size DSLRs. (they both produce point and shoots too.)

At this point mirrorless has no advantage and has disadvantages compared to Canikon solutions.

So is mirrorless really going to be dead? No, I think M43 because of the number of lenses and market penetration even though small will survived as a niche market camera. BUT I only think there will be 2 major players, Sony and Panny, possibly Sony and Oly but Oly seems to be on its way out or at least to a reduced market share and segment at this point.

Thom can predict, but so can I. I think that cell phones will only get better and be good enough for the masses, and Canikon will take up the rest of the market with some mirrorless being niche while other disappear. Because Japanese culture is different, it is hard for me to predict what they will buy. I am sure budding Asian markets will embrace cell phones, with pros and advanced amatuers buying Canikon.

Canikons strength is not just DSLR, it is lenses APS-C for smaller cameras and FF which mirrorless lacks.

I think most camera people know these points already and if they are honest with themselves, they already know mirrorless in its present form is not where it is at.

- Compacts won't die completely, but Nikon have vowed to own what's left while Panasonic have vowed to reduce their compact efforts and focus on higher value/higher end cameras.

Any links for these claims. One thing is for sure. If Nikon owns the compact market, it'll be a sad day. You're literally talking about the best compact maker (Panasonic) vs the worst (Nikon). This would be worse than the camera phone for the camera market.

This came from each's 2013 annual reports - and I generalized a bit.

I just re-read Nikon's and what they actually said is that compact unit sales remained flat amid a 30% contraction in the market (remarkable). Extrapolate that and they're gaining market share. In fact, they also plan a "flexible strategy" that will scale with the market and yet still maintain their full line of compacts. So Nikon sees worldwide value in staying with compacts for a time being. But they talk about a 30% market share - kind of like being valedictorian of the summer school class.

And Panasonic say they will decrease low end compact production and focus on high end/high value compacts and ICL. I don't know what they consider a high end/high value compact. Maybe an LX7?

In other words, Panasonic won't or can't stay in low end compacts while Nikon thinks they can. And that's only comparing these two.

I've said it before, but Panasonic rarely exits anything. All they really need to do is invest more in

Actually, they do exit things. How about Jungle? Or computer monitors? What about Panasonic bicycles? That's just three. Historically, they've anchored on a few core businesses and built around them. They're into a lot of things, but there are some common threads throughout.

There's no blanket statement that can be made there. Panasonic isn't just "mr. reliable" to be your buddy. They have to make money and drop things as they see need. I expect to see them start abandoning their vertical strategies so they can drop some of the non-profitable stuff. At least that's what I read into their statment about veritcal strategies.

advertising and possibly some restructuring. They already have a quality product. Plus they have much bigger money losers than their camera business, and it has a major upside. I don't believe

they even list their camera business specifically with respect to losses/gains because I don't believe it's a significant enough chunk of their assets to do so.

Considering that they've re-shuffled their BU's as part of their "get healthy" strategy, one can only guess what it was before. But the AVC BU which contains cameras looks to be their biggest sector and their biggest loser.

So, will mirrorless win? That's not the first question to ask in my mind. The question to ask is, who will survive? Then you can ask if and when things will change and what they will look like. Panasonic and Olympus probably can't cause this change on their own - they might not even continue making cameras. It will take the big three - Sony, Nikon and Canon.

Panasonic isn't exiting either. You're talking about a megacorp here. They make a lot of imaging

If only one company were left other than Canon and Nikon, I hope it's Panasonic. It won't be that bleak, but those are my emotional reactions.

gear from pro camcorders to compacts to ILCs, and, even then, it's small fries to them. If they really cared that much, they'd spend more on advertising of restructure before ever considering leaving.

I don't think it's small fries to them, it's a major part of their revenue. It's enough to mention as a major reason for posting a net loss. Take a look at their annual report and then see what you think. What I read is this: DP: "What caused your problems"? P: "TV's and Digital Cameras". Take a look at their data and see if you can formulate a better strategy than they have. They're in a tough spot right now. If I were them, I'd unload cameras to someone else like Nikon!

To say otherwise is FUD IMO.

Read up - compare annual reports and look at all the messages that are in there and see what you think. FUD is exactly what causes people to say things like "Nikon 1 is a flop". Read the source material for yourself and forget what DPReview articles say.

Ditto for Sony, almost word for word. Except Sony spends more on advertising.

So I think that when it becomes economical and sensible for Nikon and Canon to go mirrorless in their big cameras, they will. People who own DSLRs and previous film SLR owners bought into systems and tended to keep them through many marketing / sales cycles. I don't know what that cycle is/was, but it wasn't annual. That included lenses.

You're making the assumption that they can easily transition into mirrorless with a competitive market share. Both have already tried and failed.

Really? Both have been in mirrorless for some time and continue quite well. Are you referring specifically to ICL mirrorless? Nikon 1's have gained market share according to Nikon. What the heck does that mean? What is "2nd place" and what is the competition? And in Japan, I think the 1 series is on top.

And you can't take Thom Hogan or Ming Thien or Ken Rockwell as indications of what's about to happen. They're just human and expressing opinions.

I could say the same about you.

Exactly! But then, who's listening to me?

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