Warming whoops: Scientists debate the falling rate of rising temperatures

Started Sep 18, 2013 | Discussions thread
lol101 Veteran Member • Posts: 5,778
Re: Warming whoops: Scientists debate the falling rate of rising temperatures

kcbeatty wrote:

The world has warmed 0.05 degrees Celsius (0.09 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade over the past 15 years, a fraction of the 0.2ºC (0.36ºF) per decade rate confidently predicted by the U.N. six years ago, according to a leaked copy of the foremost climate report in the world.

“The rate of warming over the past 15 years (0.05°C per decade) is smaller than the trend since 1951 (0.12°C per decade),” the draft report states.


That’s the upshot of a new study in the journal Nature Climate Change

that compared 117 climate predictions made in the 1990's to the actual amount of warming. Out of 117 predictions, the study’s author told FoxNews.com, three were roughly accurate and 114 overestimated the amount of warming. On average, the predictions forecasted two times more global warming than actually occurred.


Already debated in another thread but this paper is, imho, a very interesting piece of work with good directions to get better models. It doesn't make any guesses as to the motives behind the measured discrepancies (are they due to some fundamentally bad or lacking models or is it just a temporary pause and models will be correct in the long run) but its recommendations about using the latest statistical tools are welcome.

These models and methodologies are in need to be under constant scrutiny if we are going to rely on them to make policies.

Remember: 'all models are wrong but some are useful'...

Also there's this:

About a million more square miles of ocean are covered in ice in 2013 than in 2012, a whopping 60 percent increase -- and a dramatic deviation from predictions of an "ice-free Arctic in 2013,"


Also debated on this forum in at least two threads: this one is definitely misleading since, even with this so-called recovery, 2013 still scores in 6th position for the smallest amount of sea ice in the last 30 years. The trend is still a diminishing pattern in total accordance with AGW derived predictions.

The UN will officially release the full report soon. Some how this information was leaked out ahead of the report. They are scrambling to try and rewrite the reports to make them not as damaging to the AGW predictions.

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We'll see about that when the report is indeed realeased.

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