Started Jun 16, 2013 | Discussions thread
joger Veteran Member • Posts: 4,900
Re: Would sell like hot cakes.

Steve Balcombe wrote:

. . . We mustn't try to over-analyse this - all I'm saying is that we can use this observation to give us a very rough but objective estimate for the price of the hypothetical 500/5.6L, free of the wishful thinking that tends to permeate these discussions.

fully agree - if a wish list 500 f/5.6 should be excellent wide open it would probably have a similar construction as the tele II lenses.

Thus it would be out of range of many enthusiasts - may it be on the lower end or the higher end. Thus a minority would buy it and thus the lens makes no sense for Canon since the PROs buy fast lenses if possible or use even a 100-400 for light traveling.

All I am saying is that a 500 f/5.6 might probably never happen from Canon and I am not overdoing the analyses - I just followed your suggestion with the equation you made that similar lenses should have a similar quotient - and this is IMHO not at all the case - not even the similar longer tele lenses have a narrow distribution - a 25 % bandwidth is a lot of uncertainty - making e.g a price of 10 or 12.5 k USD possible as an estimation

What I really try to point out is that predictions are most of the time pointless - even with complicated thoughts in advance - it is just IMHO impossible to estimate a price based on the front lens diameter - even if they share a similar design - most of the time we see market prices rather then bottom up calculated prices.

The 200-400 1.4x is as expensive as it is - and if Canon's photo marketing feels that they can charge 1 or 2 k USD more - they will do so - independent from the front lens diameter

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