Canikon another dinosaur?

Started Jun 3, 2013 | Discussions thread
Jorginho Forum Pro • Posts: 14,350
Re: Why m4/3ds won't last.

I will start by saying I think this whole piece is far fetched. I think he is clearly downplaying the Nikon 1. It is not too late, indeed it is getting lenses. Also via the adapter people can use their older lenses (unlike m43, in which 43 lenses are slowwww). Nikon has responded and the 1 seems to be targetted to compete with m43 on the same basis and for similar users: those who appreciate a small package and are willing to sacrifice some IQ.

It is not embarrassing to see these kind of pieces to my mind though as mirrorless is a serious change in photog technology. Something that has been there for over 50 years is on the brink of extinction. Rationally there seems to be no way around this. With ever better EVFs the mirrors downsides are overtaking its advantages. Current sales are not a good predictor for the future when we talk about 10 years because current sales are based on yesterdays reality which is the current perception of most buyers and some tech is not there yet for EVFs, for AF tracking (for most systems) etc...

Richard wrote:

novaoz wrote:

Interesting article on MFT and why it will outlast Canon & Nikon, some of his argument is sound

His arguments are silly.

m4/3rds has no advantages over Canon or Nikon in any way, accept for size, which both Canon and Nikon have answered with their own mirrorless.

It has. Weight is at least as important as size. Those are two factors. Liveview is better, video is better, focussing in video and aftracking in video is MUCH better (GH3). The EVF provides data an OVF can get you (exposure info in the form of highlit areas), the use of MF lenses, focus peaking.
Also S-AF on m43 cams is faster than any DSLR and more accurate.

But most of these are specialities not important for the market. Portability is may be just one factor, but it is very important. Look at tablets: they do not have the capabilites of notebooks, they are not small but they are smaller and lighter than notebooks. And popular. mFTs in functionality is much closer to DSLR than a tablet is to a notebook...

I will tell you one of the biggest advantage on paper that m4/3rds is that the lenses are interchangeable across brands.

But they have done nothing to capitalize on this. They all produce the same lenses, just different brands.

They do not. Oly has a load of primes Panny does nothave. Panny has a couple zooms Oly does nothave. And primes Oly does not have too. there is very little overlap. what is more troublingis the lack of IBIs in Panny cams or the lack of OIs on some Oly lenses that prevent interchageability without a sacrifice. panny is coming with IBIS in its next model. If so, that problem is gone.

So while this is an advantage on paper, when you compare the lens line up, they can't compare to Nikon or Canon. Thus their eventual death.

If so than it would never ever haven taken off as they started out with only two lenses.In your logic, no one whould have bought it in the first place. The fact is that they have carved out a considerable market of 1:4 (CSC: DSLR) in 4 years. The reason for this is that I think you underestimate the importance of size and weight to many.
I have a GH2 which I now use for film mostly and as a backup. I cannot have that cam with me in my coatpocket. It is too big especially. I do have my EPL5 with 20 mm and 45 mm with me. every day. it is not noticable. There is no way you can do this conveniently with any DSLR.

Not to mention lesser IQ, and a host of other problems, no OVF and such.

The lesser IQ on current mFT is minimal. As I said: tablets are less techologically in each and every way compared to a notebook. But that doesn't matter. What matter is that it is good enough for *by far) the most and much more convenient.
You consider OVFs superior and they are in some way. But first of all: not all OVFs are created equal. Second of all: they are inferior in other ways. if you really want to know what you are doing and how yourpic will look like an EVF is superior.

Everyone here says, get rid of the mirror. But Canon and Nikon can do that by moving the mirror up, and as live view gets better, what advantage will m43rds have? Size/weight to combat all the downsides.

Again: those downsides are not downsides for a majority of people easily. I think you overplay them and downplay size and weight. We already see some pro's using mFT exclusively. So we are not talking about a P&S crowd (only). mFTs are already that good. The only thing I can come up with where they still are  lagging is Af tracking with pics.

The video implementation of mFT is far superior. For quite a few people, that is important too.

I say it will die off. It is already relegated to the niche market and we are seeing a decline in the US. I think its time is limited.

The US was not a main market from the start. As an example, the first new models and lenses are almost always available elsewhere first.

The US always had big cars etc. But that has not prevented smaller and "greener" cars to flourish elsewhere on the planet.

I have no magic ball. It could die off just like DSLRs etc. We'll see. it is not veyr important. I use cams as a tool. I will get the thing that has sealed its fait if that is the case.

Now possibly mirrorless will stick around and may even work its way out of niche market but that little to do with the format (sensor size) and only to do with display.

If youhave 20-25% of the total market that is not a niche I think. But it is so in the USA I think.with 250-300 million people, the USA is an ever smaller part of the world when other economies are rising and its people are rich enough to buy these cams.

 Jorginho's gear list:Jorginho's gear list
Olympus PEN E-PL5 Panasonic Lumix DMC-GH4 Olympus E-M1 II Panasonic Lumix G Vario 14-45mm F3.5-5.6 ASPH OIS Panasonic Lumix G 20mm F1.7 ASPH +8 more
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