MFT shipments down

Started Apr 26, 2013 | Discussions thread
Rriley Forum Pro • Posts: 21,846
Re: I tend to agree

Marty4650 wrote:

I agree that MILC camera sales will grow, and eventually own more than half the ILC market.

But I disagree that it will happen anytime soon. It will probably take at least another ten years for this to happen, because there are still several issues that need to be addressed. Things like PDAF on MILC cameras, better EVFs, better performance for sports and action photography, etc. But I do think every one of these problems will eventually be solved, and it will happen.

I dont think tech matters as much as all that for a large proportion of the market. I think that most sales occur in the base camera groups, where most people are going to look at what seems to them be a 'good brand', in the lowest pricing brackets. This group would largely be unaware of the finer aspects of the cameras they are at first attracted too.

In support of that BCN Data reveals the effect price has on camera sales, just look over their charts

and BTW, gone is the attachment of high Mp cameras to sales, that in itself is a judgement on 'tech'. Just like we couldnt say there is that much 'known difference' between Nikons D3100/5100 series (22.4% share) and less sales performing D3200/5200 series, the difference is led on price.

So we just disagree on how soon.

Plus there are some powerful incentives for both the manufacturer and consumer that will drive  MILC camera sales in the future:

For the consumers:

  • Smaller and lighter cameras.... which means:
  • MILCs will have wider appeal for young people, women and seniors
  • Much more discrete, you won't be "the camera geek" anymore
  • Each generation of MILC cameras gets more capable
  • the MILC lens catalogs are starting to look good

For the manufacturer:

  • FF profits are nice, but they need products with mass market appeal
  • MILCs are cheaper to build with more profit potential
  • a new opportunity to sell more lenses to people who already own lenses
  • Finally, something new to sell. And it might even become trendy.

With high end APSC being withdrawn from the market, cheap FF has become high end APSC. The high end APSC category has simply disappeared from the product sheets because cheap FF 'must' be supported by volume to aid its sales. While that guarantees some persuasion for success, it will also drive some buyers down into mid range ($1200) APSC such as D7000/D7100, resulting in potentially lost income in sales from cheap FF where I think its intended to be heading to $1800. Not much meat in low end FF sales me thinks and I think thats where their strategy is a little faulted.

That in itself is no bad thing either, as it pushes the APSC volume generating lines which we have to admit is where the core of the money is, and the crowning achievement of greatest market share as incentive. So theres that voluntary evacuation between $1200-$1800, the low end of that is where i would expect any 'pro' offering in m43 and indeed 43rds as m43rds appears to straddle across C&N  price paths while C&N stagger each other.

With lower parts count and less in material weight ultimately mirrorless are in a far better position to subsist in the area of low budget cameras, and  will have a stronger commonality to higher end mirrorless cameras. People can suppose cameras are dumped onto the market (not that I am accusing you of this), I would contend they continue to exist to service the bottom of the market, that is exactly what I would be doing if I were them anyway. Why else would D3100 continue to exist, these cameras are kept in production for a purpose, that purpose is based on costs.

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