an opportunity for Pentax

paulkienitz · May 1, 2013

Olympus had to give up on classic four thirds and go all mirrorless. Sony now seems to be trending the same way. They already gave up on moving SLR mirrors, and now they're realizing that they no longer need the translucent mirror in the SLT series either, now that people have incorporated phase-detect autofocus into main image sensors. The result is that they're going to soon be coming out with A-mount cameras which offer no advantages at all over the E-mount of the NEX cameras. Long term, this means A-mount is eventually going to go the way of classic four thirds, and Sony is no longer going to compete head-on with the big two on their turf.

This creates an opportunity for Pentax to get back into the game as a solid number three, instead of five or six, by coming out with strong new models of traditional mirrored DSLRs, particularly by coming out with a reasonably priced FF model and a steady flow of FF lenses. Most people still prefer optical viewfinders, but only full frame makes an optical viewfinder really work well. Traditional DSLRs will still have a big role in the mirrorless world, I think, but not with squinty APS viewfinders. The day of the $1000-$1500 FF DSLR is coming pretty soon, and Pentax had better be in on it. It's a better bet than trying to compete in compact/mirrorless land, where there are few barriers to entry and the number of competing mounts looks to keep increasing for some time.

We may soon have a world where there are a dozen different mirrorless systems of consequence, but only three traditional DSLR mounts to consider. And those classic mounts will still attract the professionals and carry the prestige. I think Sony's surrender creates an opportunity for Pentax to recover lost ground. Pentax can do it where Sony did not because Sony just never did it well.

On the other hand, if Pentax half-asses its move into full frame, then C and N will end up as the only two traditional SLR mounts left standing.

paulkienitz · May 9, 2013

paulkienitz said:
paulkienitz wrote:

On the other hand, if Pentax half-asses its move into full frame, then C and N will end up as the only two traditional SLR mounts left standing.

There's a rumor out there that Pentax's forthcoming full frame is going to dump the K-mount for something incompatible. If so, then we will indeed soon have only two traditional mounts.

On the other hand, another rumor said it would be a double-flanged hybrid mount, like an old Miranda, and would remain compatible with K. That still puts them in the same position as Sony, where K (like A) is the past, and the new thing (like E) is the future. And then we are still eventually left with only two traditional SLR mounts in the game, vs. a double digit number of mirrorless mounts.

tdwesbo · May 9, 2013

I hope Pentax ignores you. Why on earth would they expect to be able to compete with budget FF traditional SLRs from the big two? I don't want a Pentax version of the D600. And neither do you. People will stay away in droves.

If you haven't looked through the viewfinder of a Sony a99 then you haven't seen an EVF. This is where the market is going and it's where I want Pentax to go. No heavy, expensive, calibrated OVF. Give me the Sony EVF any day. Wondering how the sensor will render the DR of the scene? You're looking at it. Can't see through the OVF at night? EVF to the rescue. I objected to EVFs until I saw the Sony. It's gorgeous, and it's where the market is going to go, and the big two haven't even started... I say tackle the FF market with a brilliant compact body, state of the art EVF, and ergos that Pentax is good at executing.

Of course they may not come out with FF at all. Who knows...

paulkienitz · May 9, 2013

tdwesbo said:
tdwesbo wrote:

I hope Pentax ignores you. Why on earth would they expect to be able to compete with budget FF traditional SLRs from the big two?

Because they've done pretty well at making crop-sensored traditional SLRs with competitive performance and value, and that market is now moving inevitably toward FF.

tdwesbo said:
I don't want a Pentax version of the D600. And neither do you. People will stay away in droves.

If you haven't looked through the viewfinder of a Sony a99 then you haven't seen an EVF. This is where the market is going and it's where I want Pentax to go.

Anybody who wants an EVF will be able to have one. The market for OVF DSLRs is going to be more exclusive, more prestigious, and more profitable. With Sony dropping out, Pentax is now the only company besides the big two to offer competency in that segment -- the only one that can keep them honest on their profit margins.

tdwesbo said:
No heavy, expensive, calibrated OVF. Give me the Sony EVF any day. Wondering how the sensor will render the DR of the scene? You're looking at it. Can't see through the OVF at night? EVF to the rescue. I objected to EVFs until I saw the Sony. It's gorgeous, and it's where the market is going to go, and the big two haven't even started... I say tackle the FF market with a brilliant compact body, state of the art EVF, and ergos that Pentax is good at executing.

There's no reason they can't have that in the product line too.

tdwesbo said:
Of course they may not come out with FF at all. Who knows...

Jim in Hudson · May 9, 2013

paulkienitz said:
paulkienitz wrote:

Olympus had to give up on classic four thirds and go all mirrorless. Sony now seems to be trending the same way. They already gave up on moving SLR mirrors, and now they're realizing that they no longer need the translucent mirror in the SLT series either, now that people have incorporated phase-detect autofocus into main image sensors. The result is that they're going to soon be coming out with A-mount cameras which offer no advantages at all over the E-mount of the NEX cameras. Long term, this means A-mount is eventually going to go the way of classic four thirds, and Sony is no longer going to compete head-on with the big two on their turf.

If Sony were getting out of SLTs, why did they just come out with a FF model?

Rod McD · May 9, 2013

Hi Paul,

I think we're going to continue to see the current DSLR manufacturers offering both DSLRs and mirror-less options in their wider model range. DSLRs may be their mainstay, but I doubt they can afford not to participate in all sectors.

As to whether DSLRs remain OVF or go EVF - that will depend on technology and buyer acceptance. I think you're right in saying that reflex viewing is preferred at the moment, but that's slowly changing for many buyers. The mirror and prism will only go completely if EVF lag and resolution differences are improved to the point where they no longer matter to the human eye. (Or the cost of making traditional DSLRs is too high for decreasing production volumes. Take your pick.)

The Sony 2.4mpx EVF is best EVF practice at the moment and meets the needs of many users. DPR recently reported that a new 3.69mpx EVF will be available for production cameras from this summer. And there's a patent for a 5mpx EVF....... So, it's evolving - I don't know what we'll be seeing in ten years time.

And on a Pentax FF DSLR.......If Pentax are going to offer a FF DSLR, I can't see them offering more than one core model to begin with. It will probably be to their enthusiast market and therefore price competitive. I predict their stance will be conservative given their history and their success with the K5. That means it may well have a feature set something like the Nikon D600. I don't quite understand the drubbing some people give that model. Did they want a D4 or a D800 for the same money?? Only 39 AF points and 5fps? Get over it. Of course it's down-spec'd. But still highly recommended by owners and reviewers alike. If a K mount DSLR is released with similar specs, I think it would keep a lot of people happy. (Perhaps without the dust and oil issues!)

Interesting to watch the market moving along....... We'll all be wiser in a year or two's time.

Cheers, Rod

Gesture · May 9, 2013

Unless I'm counting wrong, Pentax has only K-30 and K-5 II extant. I think they need a broader range of models like Sony does.

Alex Sarbu · May 9, 2013

paulkienitz said:
paulkienitz wrote:

paulkienitz said:

paulkienitz wrote:

On the other hand, if Pentax half-asses its move into full frame, then C and N will end up as the only two traditional SLR mounts left standing.

Click to expand...

There's a rumor out there that Pentax's forthcoming full frame is going to dump the K-mount for something incompatible. If so, then we will indeed soon have only two traditional mounts.

There is no such rumor; that's just somebody making up FUD.

paulkienitz said:
On the other hand, another rumor said it would be a double-flanged hybrid mount, like an old Miranda, and would remain compatible with K.

Pentax, Olympus, Sony - they're all going to make "hybrid" mounts, yet nobody can explain how they could possibly work. Yeah, right.

Alex

Alex Sarbu · May 9, 2013

tdwesbo said:
tdwesbo wrote:

I hope Pentax ignores you. Why on earth would they expect to be able to compete with budget FF traditional SLRs from the big two? I don't want a Pentax version of the D600. And neither do you. People will stay away in droves.

While I strongly disagree with the FF soon becoming significantly cheaper (after all, the D600 wasn't cheaper than the old-ish A850), a relatively affordable Pentax FF DSLR it is entirely possible. Let's say a model slightly more upper-market than the D600.

tdwesbo said:
If you haven't looked through the viewfinder of a Sony a99 then you haven't seen an EVF. This is where the market is going and it's where I want Pentax to go.

This is your personal preference, which does not coincide with that of the majority (nor with mine's).

tdwesbo said:
No heavy, expensive, calibrated OVF. Give me the Sony EVF any day.

Sony is already giving you a Sony EVF.

tdwesbo said:
Wondering how the sensor will render the DR of the scene? You're looking at it.

Through an EVF, no chance.

tdwesbo said:
Can't see through the OVF at night? EVF to the rescue. I objected to EVFs until I saw the Sony. It's gorgeous, and it's where the market is going to go, and the big two haven't even started... I say tackle the FF market with a brilliant compact body, state of the art EVF, and ergos that Pentax is good at executing.

MILCs are about 20% of the total ILC market; I would rather have Pentax stay in the other 80%. Of course, most MILCs sold don't even have a viewfinder.

tdwesbo said:
Of course they may not come out with FF at all. Who knows...

Not soon, but they probably will. I don't think it's just empty talks...

Alex

paulkienitz · May 10, 2013

Alex Sarbu said:
Alex Sarbu wrote:

While I strongly disagree with the FF soon becoming significantly cheaper

We may be using different concepts of "soon". You're looking at the short term trend, which has seen little recent price movement for FF. I'm looking longer term, where I see that FF has first eaten the pro market, then eaten the semipro, and is now biting well into the prosumer market. The time when it starts moving into the market for budget-conscious enthusiasts can't be all that far off. It may be that nobody is making the slightest attempt yet to bring this about, but longer term, it's there's no possible way it can not happen.

Once it does, that will tend to kill off any lingering crop-format business in the next higher tier (the one where we currently find the D600 and 6D). And it will leave the entry-level tier as the only area where crop sensors are all that people want in a DSLR, and that's the tier with the strongest competition from mirrorless systems. So eventually, the market for traditional moving-mirror DSLRs is going to be full frame by default.

Alex Sarbu · May 10, 2013

paulkienitz said:
paulkienitz wrote:

paulkienitz said:

Alex Sarbu wrote:

While I strongly disagree with the FF soon becoming significantly cheaper

Click to expand...

We may be using different concepts of "soon". You're looking at the short term trend, which has seen little recent price movement for FF.

In 3 years there was absolutely no price decrease, the launch prices for the 6D and D600 being higher than that of the A850. I doubt "the day of the $1000-$1500 FF DSLR is coming pretty soon", for any reasonable definition of "pretty soon".

I also disagree that "soon" could mean "in the long term".

Alex

Couscousdelight · May 10, 2013

tdwesbo said:
tdwesbo wrote:
No heavy, expensive, calibrated OVF.

VF are indeed a very expensive part of a modern camera, a sharp calibration cost a lot in time a manpower, but not so much for Pentax. Thank to the Shake Reduction system which give the ability to align finely the prism by moving the sensor plane, it makes the work a lot more easier than Canikon.

Information found in Chasseur d'Image's K5IIs test.

cgarrard · May 10, 2013

paulkienitz said:
paulkienitz wrote:

Olympus had to give up on classic four thirds and go all mirrorless. Sony now seems to be trending the same way. They already gave up on moving SLR mirrors, and now they're realizing that they no longer need the translucent mirror in the SLT series either, now that people have incorporated phase-detect autofocus into main image sensors. The result is that they're going to soon be coming out with A-mount cameras which offer no advantages at all over the E-mount of the NEX cameras. Long term, this means A-mount is eventually going to go the way of classic four thirds, and Sony is no longer going to compete head-on with the big two on their turf.

This creates an opportunity for Pentax to get back into the game as a solid number three, instead of five or six, by coming out with strong new models of traditional mirrored DSLRs, particularly by coming out with a reasonably priced FF model and a steady flow of FF lenses. Most people still prefer optical viewfinders, but only full frame makes an optical viewfinder really work well. Traditional DSLRs will still have a big role in the mirrorless world, I think, but not with squinty APS viewfinders. The day of the $1000-$1500 FF DSLR is coming pretty soon, and Pentax had better be in on it. It's a better bet than trying to compete in compact/mirrorless land, where there are few barriers to entry and the number of competing mounts looks to keep increasing for some time.

We may soon have a world where there are a dozen different mirrorless systems of consequence, but only three traditional DSLR mounts to consider. And those classic mounts will still attract the professionals and carry the prestige. I think Sony's surrender creates an opportunity for Pentax to recover lost ground. Pentax can do it where Sony did not because Sony just never did it well.

On the other hand, if Pentax half-asses its move into full frame, then C and N will end up as the only two traditional SLR mounts left standing.

paulkienitz · May 10, 2013

Alex Sarbu said:
Alex Sarbu wrote:

In 3 years there was absolutely no price decrease, the launch prices for the 6D and D600 being higher than that of the A850. I doubt "the day of the $1000-$1500 FF DSLR is coming pretty soon", for any reasonable definition of "pretty soon".

But do you really want to bet it's not going to happen? Even if you play it safe and don't guess any further out than two product generations from now, that's a wager with some risk.

paulkienitz · May 10, 2013

Member said:
cgarrard wrote:

Sony will still try to compete with the A-Mount though, but Pentax would be a solid #3 maker offering OVF, and I agree, they should go full force into it by starting with an affordable FF DSLR, then going up from there.

Sony may try to keep the A-mount going, but if they're selling bodies on which the A-mount offers no advantage at all over the E-mount, and the latter is the one that sells better, I think we know where they're going to invest their future lens resources.

Rod McD · May 10, 2013

Both Sony and Fuji have indicated that they're considering an FF mirror-less camera. That doesn't mean that they're going to release a model in any imminent time-frame, but it means that they at least see business potential in it. FF MILC is an unserviced gap in the market. The Sony exec I saw interviewed said that an FF MILC was a "definite maybe" (interpret that as you like) but that a supply of matched lenses was the limitation at the moment.

I wonder what mount Sony will use if they do manufacture their long-rumored FF NEX model? Could it be e-mount with the same short registration for their APSC sensor? Would it be A mount which would deliver a more perpendicular light path, but at cost to size. Or would it be still another mount with its own unique registration?

Sony already market the RX1 - which is a fixed lens mirror-less camera. An ILC version isn't difficult to imagine. If anyone brings out a small, high grade, AF, FF MILC with a built in high grade EVF, that's more affordable than the Leica RF system, my guess is that they'd sell very well. A lot of people want the IQ improvement but don't want to carry around a black mastodon. I'm one of them. And unless Pentax-Ricoh pull a surprise rabbit out of their hat, I'd tip Sony or Fuji to be first. I really think it would expand overall FF sales and probably win-over some former FF DSLR customers. It could change the FF market considerably.

Cheers, Rod

Russell Evans · May 10, 2013

Alex Sarbu said:
Alex Sarbu wrote:

Alex Sarbu said:

paulkienitz wrote:

Alex Sarbu said:

Alex Sarbu wrote:

While I strongly disagree with the FF soon becoming significantly cheaper

Click to expand...

We may be using different concepts of "soon". You're looking at the short term trend, which has seen little recent price movement for FF.

Click to expand...

In 3 years there was absolutely no price decrease, the launch prices for the 6D and D600 being higher than that of the A850.

Considering the price increases for everything else over those same three years, doesn't that constitute a drop in price?

Thank you
Russell

gaddigad · May 11, 2013

Pentax had that (same) notion of sticking to good ol' & proven film long after all major photography brands already realized digital is the new film. Sensor integrated phase AF marks the end of DSLRs as a prominent market player.

paulkienitz · May 11, 2013

Rod McD said:
Rod McD wrote:

Both Sony and Fuji have indicated that they're considering an FF mirror-less camera.

That's why I hope Pentax does not go in that direction -- because there'll soon be half a dozen competitors. By going the traditional route, they'll have only the two, and there are plenty of people who want an alternative just for the sake of it being alternative, even if they don't provide a genuinely nicer camera, which they're pretty good at doing.

paulkienitz · May 11, 2013

gaddigad said:
gaddigad wrote:

Pentax had that (same) notion of sticking to good ol' & proven film long after all major photography brands already realized digital is the new film. Sensor integrated phase AF marks the end of DSLRs as a prominent market player.

Even if that's true, then the last SLRs to die will be the biggest and most expensive and highest margined.

an opportunity for Pentax

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