MFT shipments down

Started Apr 26, 2013 | Discussions thread
Jorginho Forum Pro • Posts: 14,095
Re: Means little

MichaelKJ wrote:

Jorginho wrote:

The obvious question is:

- What causes lower demand?

Regardless of the cause, lower demand is lower demand.

I did not say the demand was not lower, I said that numebr sin itself mean little. It is just like the warming of the Earth stands still since a year or 5-6. To conclude that is easy, to claim that it is probably a sign that human induced globnal warming is not real is wrong. You need to know why it happens. In my vierw that is.

- Is it the economy?

That probably has something to do with it, although smartphone sales continue to increase despite the global recession.

These are in another price range and do a lot more than shooting pictures. It is probably one of the things people feel they cannot do without and are willing to invest in still. Camera's are different.

- Is it the economy in certain places?

- Is it a ongoing trend of lacking interest in ILC camera's?

Hopefully demand will increase. However, I think it is clear that these are difficult times for camera companies.  The combination of lower demand for ILCs and increased mirrorless competition is reason for concern, and I think it is foolish to pretend otherwise.  I think MFT is well positioned versus other formats, but the next couple of years are going to be difficult.

I am not arguing with that in general. But these sales figures cannot help nor give any clue about anything you write here. They are just 5 quarters and people come up with assuimptions or conclusions. What you do know is what I was aiming for: what is the reason behind it? That seems essential. If it is the world wide economic problemmostly, than that will resolve itself. If it is that most of the sales were done by iPhone users, than it is a whole lot different.

5 periods most likely cannot get you anything significant.

How many iPhones and iPads were sold in the first 5 quarters after they were launched? What was their impact on Apple's competitors in those 5 quarters?  How many quarters did it take the BlackBerry to go from being a highly profitable company to one that is fighting for survival? How long did it take Samsung to go from being a minor player in the smartphone industry to the top seller? In highly dynamic industries with disruptive technology, five quarters is a long time.

"Most likely". In some cases, it can. But when you see things going upo and down and not in a straight line up for one brand and straight down for another, you need to come up with an explanation.

In this case, you do not know anything about seasonal variation because there has not been more than one summer season. Etc. Really complete nonsense

Also: fluctuation seems strong. whereas this quarter was poor, the Q4 of 2012 had sales almost doubled over those of Q3. No one can tell us that such a rise is to be expected. That such a rise stems from people in economic worse times to have saved to make the holidays something special still (who knows) You do not know anything about Q3 pr Q2 in 2011 so you cannot even compare with ONE previous season.

Something that responds so fast that seasonal variation is probably not that important may be can render statistical significant results. But somehting where you can at least expect seasonal variation cannot be assessed when you hae no comparison data, no reasoning behind this.

Only in this case= meaningless.

it is nitpicking: People could have said: "wow big bump in sales, mirrorless is doing very well and inspite of economically bad times they sold weel in Q4." Just nitpicking.

You need to have data over a longer time to say anything about a trend. Is the low last quarter a low that won't be eclipsed in the next 5 years or is it just a sign of a continuing downward trend. We cannot possibly know.

Financial results for the most recent quarter will be released by most camera companies in early May. Let's hope for the best.

'Let's hope for an explanation. A slow fall can be a very good result, a small rise can be a very bad result. It depends on the reasons and well founded expectations.

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