Mirrorless- Continuing to Under Perform

Started Apr 11, 2013 | Discussions thread
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Erik Magnuson Forum Pro • Posts: 12,247
Re: It's not a zero sum game

nelsonal wrote:

But if we're considering growth the base figure matters.

That's why you have to take the 2nd derivative to project the change in growth.  Mirrorless is flattening compared to DSLR.  Try plotting just the sales delta in millions of units w/o the base level (which is what Thom's trend line does.) That will show if MILC is really gaining ground in terms of units (and likely dollars).  Mirrorless growth in percentage or market share matters  only if you assume that every mirrorless sale is one less DSLR sale OR that the market is infinitely elastic.

This is very true but is quite a different point than the one Thom is making.

That's not how I read Thom's posting.

I'm not sure I'd agree yet that mirrorless sales are doomed to continue to have a rapidly declining 2nd derivative,

It's the only conclusion you can draw from this data series other than no conclusion.

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Erik

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