Pana is rumored to plan CFF (compact full frame) for post M43

Started Mar 19, 2013 | Discussions thread
forpetessake Veteran Member • Posts: 4,892
Final words and predictions ...

bobn2 wrote:

forpetessake wrote:

bobn2 wrote:

forpetessake wrote:

I wouldn't exclude

3) FF camera with a fixed lens for around $1G. Who wouldn't want an excellent image quality in a small package like this:

Well, there is a reason not to make a camera like that. It would be packing a very expensive FF sensor. This lens is an f/4.8-13. You could get exactly the same results building a camera around a Four Thirds sensor and an f/2.4-6.5 lens (provided you shifted the base ISO to 1/4 of the FF camera's base ISO). Such a camera would be smaller, much cheaper and the results would be indistinguishable. Coupling a slow zoom lens with a FF sensor in a compact camera just does not make sense.

With FF design you are trading the cost of the sensor for the cost of the lens to provide equivalent designs with the same parameters: lens has to be 2x faster, it's resolution, tolerances 2x better. Provided the cost of sensor is going down and the cost of lens manufacturing is likely going up, at some point FF design will be more cost effective even in this case: silicon eventually beats the metal.

I think in this case a 19-85/2.4-6.5 lens and an FT sensor would be a smaller, cheaper and better solution. Such a lens is not really exotic, would be quite cheap to manufacture and the sensor would be far cheaper.

Today it is not a price competitive solution, but tomorrow it will be. The cost of silicon is going to be low enough to drive away all mechanical parts, and every camera part that can get cheaper by unloading its functionality to the silicon will do so (e.g. lens).

So here goes my prediction for the mass produced cameras for the next 10 years (you are welcome to share yours):

  • mechanical shutter - gone, electronic shutter perfected and is going to be superior;
  • mirror - gone, on-sensor AF is perfected;
  • IBIS and OIS - gone, pixel shifting will do a better work including moving objects;
  • additional circuitry - gone, everything on a sensor chip; camera is going to have three electronic components: sensor, battery, and a card (and I'm not sure about the third);
  • manual controls in lenses - gone; everything is controlled by wire;
  • lenses will be simpler, smaller, and cheaper by doing corrections in software;
  • FF lenses will drive away all crop format lenses due to cost savings;
  • FF sensors will drive away smaller sensors, except in specialty cameras (phones, glasses, other wearable devices) due to system cost savings;
  • FF camera prices will be comparable to similar categories of film camera prices - a $100 P&S with FF sensor, anybody?
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