Shakeout in the mirrorless market

Started Feb 25, 2013 | Discussions thread
Dan Wells Contributing Member • Posts: 556
What will survive in mirrorless?

As I see it:

Micro 4/3 survives for sure, because of the incredibly broad lineup of bodies and lenses, increasing acceptance as a video standard in addition to still photography (it's pretty much the Super 35 cinema film size, although a slightly different shape), and multi-manufacturer support.

Beyond that, anything could survive and anything could fail: I'd guess

Fuji survives due to incredible lenses and image quality - there is very little that shoots quite like an X-Pro1 or X-e1, and their limitations become less critical for certain applications when you look at what they CAN do. I'd say Fuji is the first survivor beyond Micro 4/3, largely because they aren't trying to BE Micro 4/3.

Sony probably survives because of a nice combination of stills and video for point-and-shooters - it's mostly aimed at the low end of Micro 4/3 territory. Their very nice high-end bodies could compete with the OM-D and even the X-e1, but need better lenses.

Nikon 1 probably survives, but I'd guess they give up on the V model and perhaps rebrand the whole thing Coolpix. The little sensor isn't a huge deal to soccer moms, but it is to more serious photographers... Nobody is going to buy a full-featured camera with a 1" sensor unless it is remarkably cheap, and the V1 and V2 aren't made to be super-cheap.

Canon probably discontinues the EOS-M unless they are willing to extend the line. They don't have a fundamental problem the way Nikon does, but they need another body or two, and more lenses. They may be doing so well selling Powershots and Rebels that they don't see a real need for anything in between

Pentax is already gone... Interesting idea to try and use an SLR lens mount on a mirrorless camera, but the Sony Alpha SLTs are effectively the same thing, and it would be very easy for Sony to do a NEX/Alpha hybrid that far outperformed the awkward K-01

Leica (who sort of plays in the VERY high end of the mirrorless market - X-Pro1 vs. M is a legitimate question for some people) survives, selling small numbers of cameras and lenses at extremely high prices.

Hasselblad gives up on trying to rebrand NEX cameras for five times the price.

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