New Sensor technology coming out in the next 18 months?

Started Dec 31, 2012 | Discussions thread
John Koch Senior Member • Posts: 1,149
New tech, but worth what?

RedFox88 wrote:

photo nuts wrote:

RedFox88 wrote:

What matters in business is selling products. Any business would be a fool to overlook a huge jump in what a prodct can deliver just because they have a lot of the stuff to make the "old" style of components.

Indeed. Complacency led to the downfall of Japanese companies in the TV market. Imagine Samsung adopting some brand new breakthrough sensor technology while Sony and Canon sit by idly...

You don't get anywhere in business without taking risks.

Sorry, but business is about making money.  The Lytro is a fantastic innovation, purely as an idea, but do Lytro cameras sell?

The new sensor technology may have technical virtues.  But what good are they if they tripple the cost of a camera, but add only 10% to the image quality, and fail to convince the millions that they should spend their next idle money on a camera, instead of a smart phone, game device, or (could this be possible?) something they might really need.

The biggest obstacle to introduction of the new technology is probably the sober judgment that the costs would outweigh the returns.

Complacency can also be a case where a company fails to recognize a no-win prospect and say "sayonara."  It may indeed be fatal if some companies don't shut down half their camera operations quickly.  Volumes and prices are falling.  What did the Foveon do for Sigma?

An attractive risk scenario might be one where a technology costs X, and the prospective returns on capital are 25% in the best-case or 5% in the worst case.  In the present environment, the best case may be +5%, and the worst case might be -50%.

Honestly, dear camera fans, you aren't going to rush out and pay 2X more for a camera that offers 1.2X better color performance, and the camera companies aren't going to make money unless they can charge more and the process costs less.

The elephant in the room, need we be reminded, is the camera phone.  The pricing, and competition for multi-functioning, is just too severe to warrant the assumption that a newfangled sensor design will amount to any more than a raindrop in the ocean.   Are Tesla cars a success?  Anyone still drive a Mazda with a Wankle engine?

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