A breather and Perspective ( A bit OT )

Started Dec 22, 2012 | Discussions thread
Craig from Nevada
Craig from Nevada Veteran Member • Posts: 3,579
Re: Some interesting numbers

Chris Mak wrote:

sandy b wrote:

http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/bcns-preliminary-2012-numbe.html

What i found interesting were the CIPA numbers through Oct:

  • DSLR shipments Japan: 814k (6%)
  • DSLR shipments outside Japan: 12.9m (94%)
  • Mirrorless shipments Japan: 582k (19.1%)
  • Mirrorless shipments outside Japan: 2.46m (80.9%)

Clearly mirrorless are on the rise, but they have a LONG way to go befor they overtake dslrs, and Canon and Nikon have the lions share of the DSLR market. So while things are changing, I do not think they are changing as fast as some see it.

You almost sound surprised by these numbers! Of course Dslr cameras are here to stay, unless of course Nikon Canon and Pentax are suddenly hit by the mirrorless-only fever, and go Sony style with EVF or even Olympus style with miniaturization on top of it, but something tells me, that if they had wánted to do that, they woúld have already. They have good reasons to keep both worlds apart, and their user base has good reasons to continue buying Dslr's.

The "hybrid" (very secret...) project sounds nice and cutting edge, but just like pen mirrorless should have been an addition instead of replacement, the hybrid, if Olympus is so enamored with that, should be an addition. I still feel, and will probably always, that that makes far better business sense than dumping Dslr aplomb. Let your customers choose..

What Olympus should have done:

-release an updated Dslr as soon as they had the new Sony sensor. Not necessarily an E7, but an E-50. Then a year later (last Photokina) release an E-7. No need for more than two Dslr models: an E-xx priced around 700 euros, and an E-x around 1400-1500 euros

-release the OM-D (which they did).

-release one or at most two updated pens (which they did)

-in due time, release a hybrid camera for the ones who want to merge systems, néxt to mirrorless and Dslr. Only one (pro) model.

-with the very good new sensor, keep longer life cycles for the cameras, it will save R&D.

For anyone who thinks this is a scenario that is commercial suicide: look again at the numbers above....

It would have been suicide.  Basically, the mirrorless is the Olympus R&D and commercial development.  Olympus is not Sony with money growing on trees.  They reached a fork in the road and made a choice to follow the mirrorless path.

They probably didn't  and still do not have the resources to pursue both.  Indeed Oly is a serious player in the mirrorless market with substantial market share--in a growing market, a market that canikon has largely ignored.  They are where they need to be right now.

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