Got your attention, no?
Seriously, I think Minolta's going to be in real trouble, unless it
comes up with something (read: an affordable, high-quality D-SLR)
really fast.
Minolta's been very strong in the "prosumer" segment, with the D7,
D7i, and D7Hi. The D7 series has been extremely attractive to
advanced amateurs who can't justify dropping $2000+ on a camera
body, not including lenses, but want something that handles more or
less like an SLR, but preferably smaller and lighter. I love my D7i
for these reasons.
But... the clouds are gathering, and soon the storm will break.
It's already pretty clear that the EOS 10D will pull the price cap
of the mid-range D-SLR market down to ca $1500. The camera is so
good that you have to have something really exceptional to be able
to sell it for more than that price (such as a full-frame,
ultra-hi-res sensor or an environmentally sealed, pro body and
handling).
If Pentax intends to be anything other than an "also-ran," it'll
have to price the *ist D well below that. After all, while the
camera seems very good by the specs and beats the 10D in
portability at least, it can't match the build quality of the 10D's
all-metal body -- nor the attractiveness of Canon's superb lens
collection, or even the prestige of its name. So let's say the *ist
sells at $1200 or so. (This isn't even taking into account the
rumors of a "Rebel-D," which would pull down prices even more.)
I paid more than that for my D7i. (I absolutely had to get one just
when it was out, I know, dumb.) If a compact "real" D-SLR had been
available for that price at the time, I would've gone for it, with
no hesitation -- even if the D7i had been available for, say, $500.
And I think I'm not that atypical of the D7 series's "core market
segment".
This is extremely bad news for Minolta. A moderately priced,
compact D-SLR or two could eliminate their main market at a stroke.
The D7 series will be too complicated for the point-and-shooters,
and too limiting for the advanced amateurs (DoF issue, speed,
sensitivity). They'd be left with their subcompacts and compacts,
which aren't bad cameras, but have a really hard time competing
against the likes of the Digital Ixus and S50.
Where does that leave Minolta?
Where it was before: needing to deliver a high-quality, low-cost,
no-frills D-SLR
now . They have the know-how: the D7 series has
proved that with the digital side, and their record on the analog
side with the Maxxums is beyond reproach. Do they have the capital
and the will? I hope so. Because six months from now may be too
late.
With last week's announcements, I think that it's extremely
unlikely that this time next year my digital flagship will be the
D7i. It will almost certainly be a compact D-SLR: maybe the *ist D,
or maybe something like it from another manufacturer.
Minolta, if you want (more of) my money, time is running out for
you. Once I do make the plunge and get a D-SLR, the lens mount will
have me married to a manufacturer. I'm hoping for the best.
Petteri
--
http://www.seittipaja.fi/index/