V1+lens 399 new. The free fall of the value continues...

Started Oct 1, 2012 | Discussions thread
MrSkelter Contributing Member • Posts: 703
Re: V1+lens 399 new. The free fall of the value continues...

I'm skeptical about the huh-end being gone for a few reasons.

1. Nikon need an upgrade path from compact to full-frame and a mirrorless camera. Without one there's no way to offer interchangeable lenses in a compact factor. They'll essentially hand the market to the competition.

2. If the V1 is gone then the price-path goes from J1 to fixed-lens Coolpix and then DSLR. Weird.

I think that they have probably realized the V2 needs premium glass and functionality. Something that can compete against NEX and m4/3 which are now much better bets for enthusiasts.

If they have changed tack they'll either follow Canon, and provide a mirrorless APS-C body with an F-mount, or produce a fixed-lens G1-X competitor. I think thats unlikely though.

Lenses mean lock-in for customers (look at these boards where people go crazy trying to convince others that the system they've invested in is the best because they can't afford to leave it). In the digital age, where bodies only last a few years, it's more important that Nikon knows old customers will think Nikon first because that's what they've got lenses for. Many of us buy whatever compact looks best because there's no downside to flipping brands as soon as a better body appears.

Nikon are very conservative when it comes to estimating sales and when I was working with them would produce cameras to a plan worked out over a year in advance. The plan was always to sell everything and make a few more each year.

If they made a mistake with the V1 - which they likely did given its price and the competition in that space from Sony in particular - they will have a lot of unsold stock. To stay on their plan they'll need to blow it out. If they don't their retail partners won't take the new cameras and, if they do, will fear they'll be stuck with them unable to sell them in a years time.

The vicious drop suggests to me that a V2 (maybe a V3 given the V2-missile connection) is going to be announced before the end of the year.

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