Hogan's Photokina: DX/APS-C sure looks forelorn.

Started Sep 22, 2012 | Discussions thread
rhlpetrus Forum Pro • Posts: 24,918
Not so simple IMO, likely DX will be here for a long time

Dennis wrote:

I think Nikon is just being a corporation striving to make money, and thinking they'll sell people on FF. What's most dismaying to me is the reaction in the forums ... the number of people eager to upgrade (here, Canon, Sony) just because it's suddenly more affordable. It's hard to convince manufacturers to keep offering us DX products when so much of the market is so eager to buy more than they need.

Well, markets are foremost in their minds, of course, but product also creates market (think iPhone), when it's ripe for that.

I think the way to look at this issue is to go into price brackets. I see, for the under 1,800 USD market (so far the place of DX, aps-c, m43 and compacts), 4 clearly separate brackets:

Under 400USD: that's the realm of compacts and transition to chepaer IL systems and top compacts.

400-800USD: top compacts, entry-level IL systems, incluidng dslrs and ML.

800-1,200 USD: mid to enthusiast lever IL systems, dslrs and ML

Above 1,200 USD: semi-pro/pro dslr and a few ML (D300, 7D, K5, some of the expensive ML models).

I think that ML APS-C from Nikon will start at the 800-1200 USD bracket, but just because it's expensive to start a system (see Nikon 1). But it'll slowly become the system in the 400-800USD bracket, repalcing eventually the 3200 line, then the 5100 line.

The D5100 line will move up, close to where the D7000 is now and the D7000 line will replace the D300 line (possibly soon), with a better spec'd body (full metal, slightly larger), at about 1,400USD initially (to compete with 7D line). Those two DX cameras will be here for the long haul, and DX lenses will be easily used in the coming ML system, Nikon need to do that right with a very good adapter.

I think Nikon may eventually bring a D500, a D5100 type body with an FF sensor, since Canon started that way (6D is an entry-level Rebel body) and prices will start to come down soon. That FF D5100 would sell for something like 1,600USD at launch.

Nikon 1 is clearly becoming a 400-800 (launch kit price) system, with emphasys in the 400-600USD bracket. Thom Hogan puts them in his "compact" group. That's the reason for the cheaper and smaller midrange kit zoom that many didn't understand why Nikon did it. It's just to be sold with the J1-J2 below USD 500. Nikon 1 is not competition to m43 or Nex, it's Nikon realization that cheap compacts are on the way out, because of smartphones, cameras will start at 300USD prices, and they need something to differenctiate them from SP.

Bottom line, though, I wonder if Nikon has the manufacturing capacity or interest in a 3rd lens design standard.

If needed, they can do it. And they'll need a ML system above the Nikon 1, sooner or later.
OnExposure member

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