Continuation of CSC (Compact System Camera) in retreat

For industry watchers, it is important to know the changes in brand sales AND the prices at which the sales occur.

This is a continuation of the rebuttal to those who hope that CSC is ready to take on DSLR. CSC is not ready.

“In the 4Q 2011, CSC sold half of ILC sales in japan. However, the strong showing was caused by the Thai flooding which disrupted Xmas and New Year sales of Nikon DSLR.

The latest numbers from BCN Japan show a resurgence of DSLR as production returns to normal.

In the top ten, only the new GX1 is a CSC. Does not bode well for CSC in its strongest market. There were 5 Canon DSLR versus 4 Nikon DSLR.

IN the next 10 position, CSC has 8 of 10. Nikon N1 has 3 positions. Pany 2, Oly/Fuji/Sony 1 each.

Why is CSC failing to overcome DSLR?” (Feb 21, 1012)

http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1000&message=40686079

Since then, I have posted an update every month. The results in 2012 have been consistent. Approximately 6 DSLR+SLT in the top ten. DSLR usually in the top five; in CSC's strongest market.

In 2011, I have argued that CSC is smaller but is held back by IQ, EVF and CDAF. IMO, I have been proven right as NEX (DSLR price) and X Pro (premium price) have been well received because of their leading edge APSC sensor. Moreover, Nikon One is a success because of its PDAF etc.

Naturally, DSLR makers haven't been idle and they have been busy adding value. In response, the D3200 has to be 24mp with much improved features, to sell at the same $600 price point as D3100 of 2010. Competition is good.

Why is the price point (at which cameras sell) important? What does the market say about how much value is inherent in the product?

Is there a "cause and effect" going on in the CSC market? For instance, the consumer is not fully aware of the product and any inherent advantages it may offer, therefore doesn't ask for it at the store. Dealers (salespersons in particular) are finding it tough to sell anything in the soft economy, so changing a potential DSLR customer to something new and innovative is too much of an uphill battle and a risk to closing the deal. Why recommend something the consumer has to "think further" about, and risk losing the sale? Are the advantages of the CSC (PMA uses the term ILC) still a great unknown? Fascinating new camera segment! Nikon says they're betting the farm on the J1/V1 series.

003tvd said:

Nikon says they're betting the farm on the J1/V1 series.

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Where did you see this?

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Nikon dealer briefings. They were quite adamant that the J1 & V1 will be a huge part of their future. A number of lenses are in the pipeline also, although they declined to be specific as to focal lengths at this time.

003tvd said:

Nikon dealer briefings. They were quite adamant that the J1 & V1 will be a huge part of their future. A number of lenses are in the pipeline also, although they declined to be specific as to focal lengths at this time.

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So there's no reference online that describes this outlook of Nikon's?

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There might be, but that's not where my info came from. It was live exec to exec discussion.

003tvd said:

Are the advantages of the CSC (PMA uses the term ILC) still a great unknown? Fascinating new camera segment! Nikon says they're betting the farm on the J1/V1 series.

Click to expand...

Nikon did say that they were making a major effort in launching a new format (Nikon One). But, I doubt that Nikon One is the sole future for them.

Nikon intends to gain markets share in all segments and price points; compact cameras, ILC, APSC and FF. Looks like Nikon intends to offer a full and strong product line.

G3 is up to #3 this week, but DSLR still has six of top ten.

http://www.dslrphoto.com/dslr/space.php?do=jranking&view=all

Of the new M43 cameras, GF5 is #9 but OMD and GX1 is fading.

HappyVan said:

G3 is up to #3 this week, but DSLR still has six of top ten.

http://www.dslrphoto.com/dslr/space.php?do=jranking&view=all

Of the new M43 cameras, GF5 is #9 but OMD and GX1 is fading.

Click to expand...

Personally, I don't understand how 4/3 has lasted this long. Who wants an expensive camera that can't achieve a shallow DOF??

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Who wants that?

They're called 'photographers', and not all of them care about or need shallow DOF, and they realize what it's good for and not good for.

Glad I could help.

Graystar said:

HappyVan said:

G3 is up to #3 this week, but DSLR still has six of top ten.

http://www.dslrphoto.com/dslr/space.php?do=jranking&view=all

Of the new M43 cameras, GF5 is #9 but OMD and GX1 is fading.

Click to expand...

Personally, I don't understand how 4/3 has lasted this long. Who wants an expensive camera that can't achieve a shallow DOF??

.

Click to expand...

Typical 4/3 response. So I guess you decided at the beginning of your photographic career that you never wanted to take a photograph with shallow DOF? That Olympus and others got together and said, "let's make a format for people who don't care about or need shallow DOF." That's what you think?

Such nonsense.

Tanngrisnir3 said:

Who wants that?

They're called 'photographers', and not all of them care about or need shallow DOF, and they realize what it's good for and not good for.

Glad I could help.

Click to expand...

You did not help one bit.

Tanngrisnir3 said:

Graystar said:

HappyVan said:

G3 is up to #3 this week, but DSLR still has six of top ten.

http://www.dslrphoto.com/dslr/space.php?do=jranking&view=all

Of the new M43 cameras, GF5 is #9 but OMD and GX1 is fading.

Click to expand...

Personally, I don't understand how 4/3 has lasted this long. Who wants an expensive camera that can't achieve a shallow DOF??

.

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

No, it's a typical response to a reply as transparently clueless as what you posted. I shoot both FF and M4/3, and they serve different purposes.

Since you apparently aren't aware of it, there are many types of photography that don't require shallow depth of field, and hence, many photographers who don't care about it.

You should really try photography one day. Then you could actually engage in rational and informed conversation about it.

Glad we could have this little chat, Sport.

Graystar said:

Typical 4/3 response. So I guess you decided at the beginning of your photographic career that you never wanted to take a photograph with shallow DOF? That Olympus and others got together and said, "let's make a format for people who don't care about or need shallow DOF." That's what you think?

Such nonsense.

Tanngrisnir3 said:

Who wants that?

They're called 'photographers', and not all of them care about or need shallow DOF, and they realize what it's good for and not good for.

Glad I could help.

Click to expand...

You did not help one bit.

Graystar said:

Graystar said:

HappyVan said:

G3 is up to #3 this week, but DSLR still has six of top ten.

http://www.dslrphoto.com/dslr/space.php?do=jranking&view=all

Of the new M43 cameras, GF5 is #9 but OMD and GX1 is fading.

Click to expand...

Personally, I don't understand how 4/3 has lasted this long. Who wants an expensive camera that can't achieve a shallow DOF??

.

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Tanngrisnir3 said:

No, it's a typical response to a reply as transparently clueless as what you posted. I shoot both FF and M4/3, and they serve different purposes.

Click to expand...

Clueless is thinking that FF and 4/3 serve different purposes. There's nothing you can do with a 4/3 that you can't do with FF.

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LOL.

Thanks for confirming what I already suspected.

Again, you should really try photography some day.

You might like it!

Graystar said:

Tanngrisnir3 said:

No, it's a typical response to a reply as transparently clueless as what you posted. I shoot both FF and M4/3, and they serve different purposes.

Click to expand...

Clueless is thinking that FF and 4/3 serve different purposes. There's nothing you can do with a 4/3 that you can't do with FF.

.

Click to expand...

Tanngrisnir3 said:

LOL.

Thanks for confirming what I already suspected.

Again, you should really try photography some day.

You might like it!

Click to expand...

Another pointless quip with no examples of what 4/3 can do that FF can't. Exactly what I thought...all BS and no substance.

You should try living a life free from denial.

.

Graystar said:

Personally, I don't understand how 4/3 has lasted this long. Who wants an expensive camera that can't achieve a shallow DOF??

Click to expand...

Well, speaking as someone who shoots Canon APS-C and FF DSLRs, but also uses m4/3, I can easily say that the reason why it has lasted this long (and will continue to last) is because it delivers excellent image quality and performance in a very small package. When I'm not working, I prefer to leave my Canon DSLR gear at home and use my m4/3 gear. And yes, you can achieve shallow DOF with m4/3. Maybe not as well as APS-C and FF. But shallow DOF isn't the end-all and be-all of photography.

By the way, I have several other colleagues (Canon and Nikon shooters) who have also bought m4/3 gear because, quite frankly, when you carry loads of Canon and Nikon gear for work, it's nice to switch to a smaller, more compact, lighter, less conspicuous system when you're off work. m4/3 is a great compromise between performance and size.

These CSC systems are definitely here to stay.

Sorry, HappyVan, but you're going to be on the wrong side of history. You keep looking at the short-term picture, while missing the bigger picture. You're patting yourself on the back for being correct in the short term, but at the price of falling on your face in the long run. Canon hasn't even entered the CSC market yet. I wouldn't even consider the CSC race to have started until Canon enters the market! They are only the largest camera company in the world!

Anyways, listen to what travel photographer and HDR guru Trey Ratcliff (look him up if you're not familiar with him) has to say about the future of DSLRs vs CSC cameras. Right now, he travels around the world with Nikon FF gear like the D3's and D800's, and he stated "I don't see myself using a giant D800 camera in three to four years" and even goes so far as to say that the D800 is probably going to be his last DSLR purchase.

Jump to 43:25 in the video when he says, "I've kind of stopped buying DSLR equipment..." which is when he starts talking about the shift he sees in the industry away from DSLRs:

http://twit.tv/show/twit-photo/54

Note that he's not saying that this change will happen today, or next month. But he clearly sees that in three to four years, DSLRs will be primarily only used in specific markets, like sports photography or fast wildlife photography, with mirrorless cameras primarily being used everywhere else.

Why do I point out what Trey Ratcliff has to say? Well, first of all, I think he's a pretty fair-minded guy, and a big DSLR shooter to boot. And secondly, he has a huge following (social media and whatnot), and does lots of seminars, workshops, and interviews all over the world, and he has been espousing his views regarding the rise of CSC pretty widely. But more importantly, I think he's merely putting words to what he's been seeing.

With each of these postings you do, you increasingly sound like the idiots who, in the early days of digital photography, kept saying, "Haha! See? Digital photography isn't taking off!" Silly, shortsighted fools, LOL.

Ultimately, your bizarre obsession with looking at market trends in these tiny time frames, especially at such an early stage in the CSC game, is simply a fool's errand. Totally pointless. But at least we will have a long paper trail of your postings to show how silly and obsessive you were in these early days when CSC was still in its relative infancy.

HappyVan said:

For industry watchers, it is important to know the changes in brand sales AND the prices at which the sales occur.

This is a continuation of the rebuttal to those who hope that CSC is ready to take on DSLR. CSC is not ready.

“In the 4Q 2011, CSC sold half of ILC sales in japan. However, the strong showing was caused by the Thai flooding which disrupted Xmas and New Year sales of Nikon DSLR.

The latest numbers from BCN Japan show a resurgence of DSLR as production returns to normal.

In the top ten, only the new GX1 is a CSC. Does not bode well for CSC in its strongest market. There were 5 Canon DSLR versus 4 Nikon DSLR.

IN the next 10 position, CSC has 8 of 10. Nikon N1 has 3 positions. Pany 2, Oly/Fuji/Sony 1 each.

Why is CSC failing to overcome DSLR?” (Feb 21, 1012)

http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1000&message=40686079

Since then, I have posted an update every month. The results in 2012 have been consistent. Approximately 6 DSLR+SLT in the top ten. DSLR usually in the top five; in CSC's strongest market.

In 2011, I have argued that CSC is smaller but is held back by IQ, EVF and CDAF. IMO, I have been proven right as NEX (DSLR price) and X Pro (premium price) have been well received because of their leading edge APSC sensor. Moreover, Nikon One is a success because of its PDAF etc.

Naturally, DSLR makers haven't been idle and they have been busy adding value. In response, the D3200 has to be 24mp with much improved features, to sell at the same $600 price point as D3100 of 2010. Competition is good.

Why is the price point (at which cameras sell) important? What does the market say about how much value is inherent in the product?

Click to expand...

Tanngrisnir3 said:

You should really try photography one day. Then you could actually engage in rational and informed conversation about it.

Glad we could have this little chat, Sport.

Click to expand...

Hope that one day, you can show that you do know enough about photography.

HappyVan said:

Naturally, DSLR makers haven't been idle and they have been busy adding value. In response, the D3200 has to be 24mp with much improved features, to sell at the same $600 price point as D3100 of 2010. Competition is good.

Click to expand...

I expect the D3200 to sell well based on 24mp. It does not have "much improved" features, bar an updated LCD higher res and a few video bits it adds very little to the D3100 in terms of functionality. The release price is also £80 higher in the UK with the kit lens v the D3100

But it will sell well no question

ILC's are doing quite well in Japan but much less so in Europe bar the odd blow out model for sale at lower than DSLR prices. Japan is not a huge market v Europe and the USA so I believe the rise of ILC models is somewhat overstated.

There will be decent growth but it won't consume the DSLR market, when Canon arrive that will eat into the market share of the other makers too

003tvd said:

Nikon dealer briefings. ...

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This means very little.

When a global corporation introduces a new product, in a new market segment, it will invariably start by vigorously promoting it internally and to the distribution and sales fringes. Anybody who was ever exposed to any of the "old Detroit's" line/model introductory campaigns will know what I speak off. Some of those products performed, some did not. Some failures cost those corporations more than the others. But just where any particular product was sitting in the company's overall mix can be determined only in retrospect.

MaxTux