Your predictions vs Olympus statements

Started Sep 16, 2010 | Discussions thread
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TrapperJohn Forum Pro • Posts: 16,454
Your predictions vs Olympus statements

All this predicting that 4/3 is dead because a new high end body came out...

The fact is, what we're seeing is exactly what Olympus said last year. And this year.

1. They are not abandoning 4/3.
2. The hot selling M4/3 would be getting the lion's share of new development.
3. Developments from M4/3 would be transferred to 4/3.
4. They did not plan on pushing past 12mp any time soon.

And that's exactly what happened. We got a new E5, with the best developments from M4/3, perhaps even improved a bit, and it wasn't greater than 12mp. Anyone who has ever shot a Pen and an E3 would know that an E5 wouldn't be that much better. I don't find the Pen to be markedly better than the E3 in any way other than size. That handwriting was on the wall a year ago, if anyone read it.

Let's face it, we've all been getting a free ride from the newbies moving up from P&S's and had no alternative for high IQ than a dslr. Their numbers insured volume production and fierce competition on the low end DSLR's, which gave all of us inexpensive bodies that advanced rapidly in capability every year.

Those heady days are ending, for everyone, not just us. A combination of the loss of the new buyers who now have a more convenient and portable option (and one where Oly is a dominant player), and the fact that current and future dslr advances are pushing into the 'seldom used' category for most of us. We won't see anything like E1-> E3, 5D-> 5DII, or D2-> D3 again, unless a breakthrough in sensor technology occurs.

Comparing the D7000 to the D90 or D300s, it really doesn't improve that much, once you look past the 'emperor's new clothes' gushing that's going on. Matter of fact, it improves on the D300s about as much as the E5 improves on the E3. A few more MP, a step higher ISO. Well, there's better video, but who cares? A pity Oly couldn't arrange the price cut like Nikon did, but wait a few months and the market will settle that.

So what we just got was perfectly predictable, and was also the most realistic outcome. If anything, the fact that an E5 and not an E630 came out is an indication that they will continue to support our beloved HG/SHG ZD glass. (releasing the 100 2.8 would be an even better indicator, hint, hint)

The low end dslr is dying, what we have today is very capable, Olympus isn't letting our best ZD glass become obsolete, and we do have an upgrade path, albeit without the newbie subsidy that has helped us in years past.

In the coming year or two, you will see that we're not the only group to face this, just the first.

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