The REAL scoop on MX!

Started Nov 9, 2008 | Discussions thread
Joseph S Wisniewski Forum Pro • Posts: 34,314
Re: Ocham's razor...

darinb wrote:

Hey Joseph,

Thsu the danger of applying Occam's Razor--I think the assumptiosn
you are making are not necessary!

Most are.

Joseph S Wisniewski wrote:

For the product information statements to be true requires these

1) That a support person would have this information

A fine assumption.

2) That she would be authorized to give it out

No need for this assumption at all. She would just have to be willing
to give it out.

Then "an" assumption is necessary at this point, either that she is authorized to give out the information, or that she is willing to risk her job by giving out information that she is unauthorized to give.

3) That this is therefore a deliberate and premeditated leak on the
part of Nikon management.

This leads from the needless assumption #2.

True. So we have two paths on this tree, one with two assumptions, one with three.

For all the product info to be false, and your statement about her
being "full of hot air" to be true requites three assumptions.

1) That she would risk her job in order to greatly prolong a service
call when she is being rated on the time it takes her to process
calls, and she knows that she can get caught doing this (this call
may be monitored for training purposes).

You are assuming way too much here. The real world is not as neat as
you suggest. Do you know she is being rated? Based upon what
evidence? Do you know the calls are being monitored? Really? How
often? By how many people? Myself, I know nothing about Nikon repair
monitoring calls, even if a auto-play recorded message exists.

Right now, someone who claims to have taken notes from a conversation with her has posted them on an internet forum. Whether or not she was recorded, she is now most definitely "at risk".

2) That she would make up information, knowing that her support staff
training said she was never to make statements concerning company
policy, product plans, etc (this call may be...)

Sounds like a restatement of #1--she would risk her job.

Two separate crimes.

In the real world soldiers find detailed enemy battle orders sitting
in a field wrapped around cigars (Antietam in the American Civil
War). In the real world people say things they are not supposed to.

In the real world, soldiers who leak information are shot.

Think of this: Perhaps the girl was not a highly-trained, disciplined
professional. Perhaps she was a photo enthusiast who they hired to
answer phones for a few bucks an hour. Would that change your

Very little.

What if it turns out she was the daughter/wife of an employee and was
just helping out that day?

An illegal action that would subject the employee to immediate dismissal in most companies. That's not "helping out".

What if her job was being phased out and she really just didn't care?

The "disgruntled employee" is an overstated problem. Most employees "care" in such situations. It will affect her ability to obtain a reference for a new job, affect her ability to continue benefits under COBRA (laid off vs fired for industrial sabotage) and in many cases leave them open to both civil and criminal proceedings.

What if she just made a mistake?

Possible, but it still leaves us with two assumptions.

My bottom line: I don't think you can rule out the story based upon
Occam' Razor or a purely logical approach.

I didn't "rule it out", I just made statements on it's likelihood.

The real world is too

-- hide signature --

Rahon Klavanian 1912-2008.

Armenian genocide survivor, amazing cook, scrabble master, and loving grandmother. You will be missed.

Ciao! Joseph

 Joseph S Wisniewski's gear list:Joseph S Wisniewski's gear list
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