The REAL scoop on MX!

Started Nov 9, 2008 | Discussions thread
darinb Contributing Member • Posts: 604
Re: Ocham's razor...

Hey Joseph,

Thsu the danger of applying Occam's Razor--I think the assumptiosn you are making are not necessary!

Joseph S Wisniewski wrote:

For the product information statements to be true requires these
assumptions...

1) That a support person would have this information

A fine assumption.

2) That she would be authorized to give it out

No need for this assumption at all. She would just have to be willing to give it out.

3) That this is therefore a deliberate and premeditated leak on the
part of Nikon management.

This leads from the needless assumption #2.

For all the product info to be false, and your statement about her
being "full of hot air" to be true requites three assumptions.

1) That she would risk her job in order to greatly prolong a service
call when she is being rated on the time it takes her to process
calls, and she knows that she can get caught doing this (this call
may be monitored for training purposes).

You are assuming way too much here. The real world is not as neat as you suggest. Do you know she is being rated? Based upon what evidence? Do you know the calls are being monitored? Really? How often? By how many people? Myself, I know nothing about Nikon repair monitoring calls, even if a auto-play recorded message exists.

2) That she would make up information, knowing that her support staff
training said she was never to make statements concerning company
policy, product plans, etc (this call may be...)

Sounds like a restatement of #1--she would risk her job.

In the real world soldiers find detailed enemy battle orders sitting in a field wrapped around cigars (Antietam in the American Civil War). In the real world people say things they are not supposed to.

Think of this: Perhaps the girl was not a highly-trained, disciplined professional. Perhaps she was a photo enthusiast who they hired to answer phones for a few bucks an hour. Would that change your assumptions?

What if it turns out she was the daughter/wife of an employee and was just helping out that day?

What if her job was being phased out and she really just didn't care?

What if she just made a mistake?

My bottom line: I don't think you can rule out the story based upon Occam' Razor or a purely logical approach. The real world is too messy.

-- hide signature --

Darin

That the OP made the whole thing up requires just one assumption.

Pluralitas non est ponenda sine necessitate

-- hide signature --

Rahon Klavanian 1912-2008.

Armenian genocide survivor, amazing cook, scrabble master, and loving
grandmother. You will be missed.

Ciao! Joseph

http://www.swissarmyfork.com

--
Darin Boville
http://www.darinboville.com (photography)
http://www.montarafog.com (citizen journalism--San Mateo Coast)

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