The REAL scoop on MX!

Started Nov 9, 2008 | Discussions thread
Joseph S Wisniewski Forum Pro • Posts: 34,314
And a little more...

michaeljberman wrote:

OK, I started running numbers. I spent 25 years making computer
chips, so I know a "little" about that end. Taking a look at the 3
DSLR size:

18 x 24 mm
24 x 36 mm
36 x 48 mm

Next, find the number of gross die per 200 mm wafer (still the main
wafer size for sensors), it comes out at:

18 x 24 mm 55 gross die wafer
24 x 36 mm 24 GDW
36 x 48 mm 10 GDW

Lets add a 90% die yield and a $1,000 wafer cost, we have a net cost
per die of:

18 x 24 mm $20.41
24 x 36 mm $45.45
36 x 48 mm $111.11

If we have a 90% yield at 18x24, shouldn't we be down to 56% at 36x48?

But someone with "25 years making computer chips" should know better than to make assumptions about someone else's yield, now, shouldn't they?

[the rest of your numbers seem equally off the wall]

OK, I may be off a little,

More than a little.

but it is not going to be $1,000's more to make.

Bet it is...

You can also see why Nikon will want to price it so it will
sell in big numbers > 100,000 production run (in 18 months),

The combined MF sales of three camera manufacturers and four back manufacturers is 6,000 units/year. 9,000 in 18 months.

As much as I admire Nikon, I am having a little trouble picturing their first MF system starting such a wild feeding frenzy that it outsells the entire existing medium format industry by a factor of 12.

that is a
run rate of
came out?

This isn't the D3. The D3 was not only compatible with existing Nikon lenses, but used many of them to a fuller potential than any other Nikon DSLR did, to that date.

OK, I did not talk about the cost of the computer processing needs in
the camera, true, but if the Sensor is about 2X, then the computer
power needed will be about 2X,

No, it really doesn't. I don't think one wants a MF system to shoot 9 frames/sec.

that is the normal increase in 18
months (OK the D3 is not quit that old( it was per DPR Announced
23-Aug-07), but you get the idea, based on Moore's law ( which is for
computer type chips NOT sensors!)

Someone with industry experience is using the term "Moore's law?"

Where was it you worked, again?

-- hide signature --

Rahon Klavanian 1912-2008.

Armenian genocide survivor, amazing cook, scrabble master, and loving grandmother. You will be missed.

Ciao! Joseph

 Joseph S Wisniewski's gear list:Joseph S Wisniewski's gear list
Nikon D90 Nikon D2X Nikon D3 Nikon D100 Nikon Z7 +45 more
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