Thom Hogan writes more about Nikon's plans for the coming year

Started May 19, 2008 | Discussions thread
balster_neb New Member • Posts: 10
Re: Thom Hogan writes more about Nikon's plans for the coming year

Thom Hogan wrote:

balster_neb wrote:

It's not clear what Thom means by "upper end" cameras. Does that
refer to DSLRs in general, or only the pro-grade ones?

The statements were in Japanese, and I'm not 100% sure I'm
translating them correctly. The wording was vague but seemed to imply
that high-end consumer (which I read to be at a minimum D80 but more
like D200/D300) and pro bodies would be the primary emphasis in their
upcoming year plans. You can kind of get that from the numbers,
themselves. If Nikon had a D30 (or whatever you want to call it) up
their sleeves that broke new ground in either price or performance or
both one would think that this by itself would sell in the millions
of units. Before the D40/D40x came out, it was easy enough to see
their impact in Nikon's forward estimates: there was a clear uptick
in unit growth predicted just prior to their appearing.

What's interesting is that only two years ago Nikon executives were
quoted as saying that a US$399 DSLR was going to be necessary at the
bottom of the lineup. We've yet to see that, and Nikon's forward
numbers don't see to indicate it's coming from them anytime soon.

My take on the numbers coupled with other rumors is this for the
coming year:

D40/D40x sell off the remaining inventory and it's gone
D60 is new low end
D80 sell off remaining inventory and it's gone
D80 replacement coming
D3x coming
FX-frame D300-type camera coming

Thus, I'm predicting that by Christmas the Nikon DSLR lineup will
look like this:

D60, D90, D300, D3, D3x, and possibly the D10 or whatever the
lower-speced FX body is called.

I suppose the following link (and associated news story) clarify what Nikon meant by "upper-end":

They seem to refer to the high-end DSLRs. While this points towards a D3X in the very near future, I wonder what it means for the D80 successor.

If they really are focusing on higher profit margins, perhaps we'll be seeing a semi-pro FX DSLR before a D90.

Just speculation, of course.

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