D3 on June 26th???

Started Jun 13, 2007 | Discussions thread
nebularb Regular Member • Posts: 337
Re: Prediction

Thanks Thom for your insight.

It just hasn't felt/seemed like an announcement was imminent. There just hasn't been any definitive rumours (i.e. pictures/specs) and it seems like things have cooled down on the forum after alot of speculative activity a week or so ago.

I think you have hit the nail on the head with this 26 June announcement, i believe that theres a very slim chance an announcement will be made.

I guess, if Nikon are serious about making this August 25th deadline the announcement would have to be anytime from the second week of July towards the end of July and the strongest day in this month is July 25 (Nikons 90th anniversary).

Although Nikon will really have to get their skates on if they can release a camera/lenses within 5 weeks of this July date (if they haven't unofficially done this prior).
Is it at all possible?

Thom Hogan wrote:

Tony Rundle wrote:

(c) We don't know when the announcements will be.

With virtually all of Nikon's pro announcements, there has usually
been about a two or three-week early warning due to the press event
announcements that go out (kind of difficult to have a major
roll-out without inviting the press, and you don't do that at the
last moment if you want 100% attendance of the key influencers).
There's also a longer lead early warning when Nikon Japan does the
initial roll-out (in Japan) to the subsidiaries. It appears that
the latter has occurred, which is fueling a lot of the speculation,
but the former hasn't, which means it would surprise me if there is
an announcement planned in the next couple of weeks, though we're
probably now in the period where each subsidiary is working
feverishly on getting roll-out and marketing programs ready. As
Jerry Pournelle used to write: Real Soon Now.

People with long memories will remember my hinting at the release
date by pointing people to the sporting event calendar. If I were a
betting man, I'd bet that the first public appearance of the new
Nikon pro body would be at the world track and field championships
in Osaka, Japan in August (Aug 25-Sept 2). I tried to hint at that
back earlier this spring, but I guess I was being too cryptic.

You have to think like the Japanese to understand why the track
meet is an important deadline. For Nikon, to have Canon dominating
a major world event in their own backyard with the 1DIII would be a
tremendous loss of prestige. Japanese press Nikon users would not
be happy if they still were shooting with D2 series bodies at that
event and a new pro camera were available, oh, say a month or two
after that. My guess is that Nikon will once again do what they've
done at a few previous launch events: have a large quantity of the
new equipment available to NPS shooters covering the event. Of
course, if they do that, the cat is out of the bag, so Aug 25
becomes the last possible date to officially announce the camera
under this scenario. More likely, it would be announced prior to
the event, though.

There is, of course, risk in a scenario of announce and launch at
Osaka. Basically, the camera has to work (consider what would have
happened if Canon had waited for this event to launch the 1DIII,
handed out the new camera to hundreds of pro photographers and the
AF problem that Rob Galbraith reports surfaced at the event).
Personally, I wouldn't be averse to such risk on such a major
launch, but it might have impacted the release schedule some--I
would have picked an event where I knew I could get plenty of
testing in before handing over cameras.

Another scenario is that Nikon is waiting to launch the camera
while I'm out of Internet coverage this summer in Africa ; ).

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