D3 on June 26th???

Started Jun 13, 2007 | Discussions thread
Tony Rundle Regular Member • Posts: 407
Prediction

Lets see what we really know, or can reliably guess:

(a) There will be new cameras announced.

(b) There may (or may not) be a FF body. Bear in mind that all formal reports and interviews from Nikon itself have been playing this down.
(c) We don't know when the announcements will be.
(d) Rumours of announcement dates occur about every three months or so.

(e) The most likely scenario is that there will be more pixels than a 1DS Mk II (but that this could be overtaken by a 1DS MkIII when it comes out.

(f) The most likely source of a sensor is Sony, and this will probably still not match Canon's latest for High ISO performance.

(g) When it does come out, there will probably be "bugs" that have lots of people saying how awful it is (as D200 banding, 1D MkIII focussing etc.) but this will be fixed in 3 months or so.

(h) There will be lots of features. If FF, there will most likely be an HSC that gives an APS size picture for use with DX lenses.

(i) The longer Nikon leave it before announcing a new model, the greater the jump in specification needs to be.

So my view is (i) that it is quite possible that a D3X will be announced tomorrow, but it is equally likely that it won't be until July, or September for shipment just before Christmas, or possibly next year. It is also possible that an announcement tomorrow could be a whizzy point and shoot model.

(ii) While it may have lots of features to make everyone jump up and down, the actual performance and IQ may be not significantly better that a Canon equivalent, and may be overtaken by Canon anyway when the 1DS MkIII comes along.

(iii) Because of the continued speculation and "blow Canon away" type rumours, the actual machine, when it arrives, may be something of a disappointment.

I hope I'm wrong, and that Nikon announces a world-beater this week. But I'm not holding my breath.

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Tony

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