the polar bear climate change photo

Started Mar 24, 2007 | Discussions thread
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TomFid Senior Member • Posts: 2,254
Re: Something for you to read

This exchange highlights the problem with any statement about universal agreement in science. Scientists express speculative opinions, bad papers slip through peer review, and chance sometimes yields perverse data. Therefore individual papers are seldom revolutionary - one has to weigh the whole body of evidence in the literature to understand what's going on.

With that in mind, Chato is right in spirit if not to the letter - there was never a body of evidence in climatology suggesting that an ice age was an imminent threat. A few scientists did note that it was a problem in principle. Mostly they were talking about something that could happen over a few thousand years, and the press neglected the little detail of timing in its search for something to get excited about. There weren't any calls for action other than further inquiry.

The fact that weather is unpredictable does not mean that climate is unpredictable. I can't predict how far a given pixel on my camera will deviate from neutral if I photograph a gray card, but I can reliably predict that the standard deviation of a bunch of pixels will be higher at ISO 1600 than ISO 100.

Tom

Chipsthe1 wrote:

Chato wrote:

I want to be careful not to call you personally a liar. But NO
SCIENTIST ever claimed that there was going to be a global freeze.
This was a media extravaganza based on one very cold winter in the
North East. This has become an Urban Legend.

Really?

Harry Bryden at the National Oceanography Centre in Southampton,
felt the analysis by his group demonstrated Europe faced another
ice age.

Arctic explorer Donald MacMillan opined that we were facing another
ice age. Although that was back in 1920 so perhaps that should not
count.

Khabibullo Abdusamatov said he and his colleagues had concluded
that a period of global cooling similar to one seen in the late
17th century
Russian Academy of Sciences’ predicted another forthcoming ice age.

There were others as well so it was not just media outcry nor was
it an Urban Legend. I do not know if there is global warming or
not but I do know that scientists not many years ago were
predicting cooling and something akin to an ice age. There were
indeed scientists making such predictions.

Weather predictions are very tricky, right now even a forecast for
seven days in advance is far from 100% accurate. That makes me
think that I will have shuffled off this mortal coil before global
warming makes a great impact on the human race.

Shoot lots of pictures, always fill the frame

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