the polar bear climate change photo

Started Mar 24, 2007 | Discussions thread
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Kenstrain Regular Member • Posts: 465
Re: An Al Gore Disciple is in the house!

This one interests me:-

Ryan McDaniel wrote:

FACT: the temperatures observed in the 20th century do not agree
with predictions made by global warming models. Most of the warming
occurred prior to the post-WWII ramp up in CO2 output. Post WWII
saw a sustained cooling period despite dramatic increases in CO2
output.

Recently I've noticed the apparent anti-correlation (your FACT quoted above) being used as an argument against CO2 related warming. There is also the argument that at earlier times there was no causal correlation (indeed that the CO2 concentration is determined by prior temperature history rather than the other way round).

If that apparent anti-correlation is not causal it probably should not be used in an anti-global warming science argument, even if its political utility is clear (for example for the fossil fuel industry:" look, we do no harm"). If it is causal the implication is that human activity is affecting the climate (but not in the way predicted by the naiive climate models).

I wonder if that could be partially due to cloud formation related to soot and other pollution, as well as non-anthropogenic changes (or some other anthropogenic cause).

I don't follow the literature on this though, nor do I have an opinion on whether there is causality.

Ken

Ken

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