10mp 10fps 1.3 crop

Started Feb 17, 2007 | Discussions thread
Press Correspondent
Press Correspondent Veteran Member • Posts: 3,362
Re: 1D Mark II ... three years, same sensor

David Mazeau wrote:

I think your other projections are where the errors are. The other
DSLR bodies you think are coming out, that's where you're wrong.

My projections are trend based, but there still is a lot of unknown. So they are just my best educated guesses. They sure can be wrong. In fact, it is very unlikely that they are all right just by probability.

The sensor, however, hasn't changed since 2004. Really, this PMA,
it's the time for the new 1D body.

Perhaps. I also considered this possibility as well as a few others (like 1D going FF etc.). A flagship upgrade seems a bit more likely to me and I doubt Canon would release both 1D and 1Ds at the same time. So let's see in a week or two whose intuition was closer to Canon's line of thinking

As far as the timeframe for the sensor upgrade, I believe that we are in the pattern where only every other model is upgraded. With 18 months between models (especially consumer) it is 3 years between sensor upgrades. Examples (mostly hypothetical) would be 1D2 -> 1DN2 -> 1D3, 20D -> 30D -> 40D, 5D -> 5DN -> 5D2, 350D -> 4000D -> 4500D, 40D (10.4 mp) -> 50D (10.4 mp) -> 60D (12.8 mp), etc. This pattern does not seem to apply to the flagship model, but for the rest this is what I would expect to see in the next 3 years. Along this line notice the 3-year plateau on my megapixel trend:

http://presscorr.com/dslr/trend.gif

So from this standpoint you are right, 1DN2 is 3 years old and is due for replacement. I just think that Canon may prioritize 1Ds for the big anniversary. Otherwise, it's a fair guess.

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