10mp 10fps 1.3 crop

Started Feb 17, 2007 | Discussions thread
Press Correspondent
Press Correspondent Veteran Member • Posts: 3,362
5D Projections

Peter Carmichael wrote:

Logic doesn't necessarily point in a single direction.

True, but whatever the arguments, the altimate question is if 5D is being replaced at PMA. I would say yes, because Canon wants to recover R&D on anti-dust and quicker electronics while correcting some marketing mistakes (this is why I am afraid of the plastic body possibility). The largest and longest ever rebate on 5D also suggests a replacement.

I didn't try to write a book in my quick reply covering all relevant considerations. Of course 5D and D200 do not compare 1 to 1, although many potential buyers in this price range choose between these models.

you have a production run of 5Ds that are still finding buyers,
albeit at a slow rate. There is absolutely no need to introduce a
5DN unless 5D supply (the entire production run) has run out; all
you'd do is end up with a warehouse full of 5Ds.

Yes, this was exactly the reason for such a huge and long rebate - to clear the stock. Accordingly, 5D already must've been replaced in production with its successor.

What Canon did with the 5D was put a top-end sensor in a mid-range body.

I think, it was one of Canon's marketing mistakes based on its ambition to dominate all markets and if they could to do it all over again, 5D would be 1.3x. But even if I'm wrong and the reason was different, it sure brought to the market one of the best cameras ever for its lucky owners.

The D200 is a D80 sensor in an up-spec body, with a much lower cost to
build than 5D. If the 5D was forced to go head to head with the D200
at the D200's price point, Canon would feel some pain on the lost margin.

This is close to what is happening. Many potential buyers of 5D go with D200 because of the lower cost and this hurts Canon's sales.

Slashing price on a significantly
differentiated model is a dreadful marketing/sales strategy.

Yet they compete. This, again, is why I am afraid of the plastic body and other possible ways for Canon to reduce the cost of the 5D successor.

All the 5D needs is an effective Canon D200 competitor

Canon and Nikon don't compete 1 to 1. It is a bad strategy, because it would hurt too much the loosing side. Instead all models of one are positioned between the models of the other, so there always is some market for each. So D200 is close to 40D, but sealed like much more expensive 1D. In turn 5D offers better IQ that to many is more attractive than sealed body. The only problem is that 5D is too expensive. It would fly off the shelves for under $2k. This is why I think Canon wants to dumb down 5DN to lower the cost. It will start with the list of between $2k and $3k, but will drop to $2k street before the year end. Although I keep my fingers crossed that Canon reduces the cost without degrading the camera.

The 5D defines a market sector. It might not be a high volume market
sector, but 100% of buyers in the 5D sector are buying 5Ds because
there is no alternative.

This is my main point. 5D was not invisioned for a niche market. With 5D Canon wanted to bring FF to the mass market, but overestimated the buying power of a consumer. Everyone was buying 10D for $1,500. So Canon thought that everyone would buy FF for $3k, but people didn't. $2k happened to be the mass market limit nicely matched by D200. Sure, all wedding photographers got 5D, but they are a few and a drop in a bucket compared to the mass market of xxD and xxxD models. 5D sold as a pro camera, it did not sell as a consumer camera, as Canon wanted. And this is why I think they will be "upgrading" it into cheaper 5DN.

In due course the 5D can receive minor tweaks in handling and perhaps
focus system

God bless you, if you are correct, but I think it may be a goal for more expensive 3D.

but the fundamental formula is going to exceed all competitor offerings
until the competition starts offering full frame cameras.

That may be in a week and more than one.

This is the critical one. I personally don't think the 400D sensor
generation has shown that it is good enough for 10MP and I'd prefer
to see a radical move to 10MP at 1.3x crop, 5fps. Then again,
ruling out EF-S lens usage rather suggests this isn't an option.

Exactly! Just make the next logical step here - a new advanced 1.3x camera IN ADDITION to 40D! To wipe the competition! This is why I introduced this new product category in my table. I named it wrong as 3D, but will shortly change to 7D:

http://presscorr.com/dslr/dslr.gif

I agree, it is not likely, but not impossible. Especially if released with a new EF 12-28 or something like it.

From here on in, our logic differs.

So what's your projections on 5D?

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