10mp 10fps 1.3 crop

Started Feb 17, 2007 | Discussions thread
Peter Carmichael Contributing Member • Posts: 727
Re: And you know this how?

Press Correspondent wrote:

No "gospel", just logical projections.

Logic doesn't necessarily point in a single direction.

I'm not convinced with your "5D doesn't sell" observation. We know, for instance that D200 is at a price point way lower than the 5D. The problem is not that the 5D performance doesn't kill all prospects of D200 purchase outright, but that the value proposition for the 5D doesn't stack up for many users. If you introduce any sort of a 5DN, it can't appear at the current 5D price point or below, so it still won't be a D200 competitor. In the meantime, you have a production run of 5Ds that are still finding buyers, albeit at a slow rate. There is absolutely no need to introduce a 5DN unless 5D supply (the entire production run) has run out; all you'd do is end up with a warehouse full of 5Ds.

We also currently see the 1DmkIIN at a price point close to 5D. When the debate surfaces on here on choosing between the two, there are a lot of noisy individuals who over-simplify the debate down to the 1D being a "better" camera. This isn't the case. The two cameras have different strengths and for some people the 5D is the better choice. Think of the 5D as a competitor to the Leica M8 and it all makes a lot more sense - compact (ish), quiet (ish), resolution, image quality. The sort of person who buys a Leica M8 is probably not also considering a Canon 1DmkIIN to perform the same function, but the 5D is compelling and certainly has an attractive price point compared to M8. Equally, an M8 buyer is unlikely to have been considering a Nikon D200.

So summing up the position of the 5D, I can see that if there was a direct Canon competitor for the D200, the 5D would be sitting pretty with its superior characteristics of low noise at high ISO - desirable for certain photographers (pro/am landscape, weddng, photojournalist, available light), but attracting photographers who seek extra capability in those areas over and above what the "40D" can offer. What Canon did with the 5D was put a top-end sensor in a mid-range body. The D200 is a D80 sensor in an up-spec body, with a much lower cost to build than 5D. If the 5D was forced to go head to head with the D200 at the D200's price point, Canon would feel some pain on the lost margin. The remnants of the 5D production run can remain viable on the market for some time as it has unique differentiation. Slashing price on a significantly differentiated model is a dreadful marketing/sales strategy.

All the 5D needs is an effective Canon D200 competitor and for the 1DmkIII to appear at a higher price point than the runout 1DmkIIN to give it clear water. The 5D defines a market sector. It might not be a high volume market sector, but 100% of buyers in the 5D sector are buying 5Ds because there is no alternative. In due course the 5D can receive minor tweaks in handling and perhaps focus system, but the fundamental formula is going to exceed all competitor offerings until the competition starts offering full frame cameras.

The sales of 350D,
30D, and 5D are killed by Nikon D40, D80, and D200 respectively.

The 30D is particularly vulnerable as it is straddled in the market place by two compelling Nikon offerings (D80/D200). The 30D needs to be replaced.

The new specs are easy to guess. 4000D is a repackaged 350D

I agree this is likely. Not impossible for a 6MP model to appear with superior noise.

40D is 30D with the technologies first released in 400D and G7:
5.7-micron pixel (10.4 mp) and anti-dust plus Digic III, but same 5
fps;

This is the critical one. I personally don't think the 400D sensor generation has shown that it is good enough for 10MP and I'd prefer to see a radical move to 10MP at 1.3x crop, 5fps. Then again, ruling out EF-S lens usage rather suggests this isn't an option.

5DN is a facelift of 5D with the same (only quicker) sensor, 12.7
mp, anti-dust, Digic III, and 4 or 5 fps - either speed is easily
possible, so it is a purely marketing decision by Canon.

From here on in, our logic differs.

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