10mp 10fps 1.3 crop

Started Feb 17, 2007 | Discussions thread
Press Correspondent
Press Correspondent Veteran Member • Posts: 3,362
Re: And you know this how?

Jim F. wrote:

Where did this information come from that gives it any more
credence over the other "rumors"?

I don't claim "more credence".

Since everyone seems to think that their "assertions" are gospel,
how about some proof?

No "gospel", just logical projections. Canon cannot upset its distribution chain by replacing more than 2 models at a time, but it can introduce new additional models on top of that. The only Canon model that successfully sells now is 400D. The sales of 350D, 30D, and 5D are killed by Nikon D40, D80, and D200 respectively. (I am not talking of the pro models, cause they always sell only a handful anyway). Having lost #1 market share position to Nikon, Canon urgently needs to replace these 3 models. To prepare its distributors, Canon stops supplying 350D (the current model competing with D40) to retail stores and announces large double rebates on 30D and 5D to clear the stock and then extends the rebates almost until the new announcements proving these 2 models are being replaced. Than we see on one of Canon's web sites "350D discontinued" proving that 4000D is coming soon to compete with D40. So here you are: 350D, 30D, and 5D are no more.

The new specs are easy to guess. 4000D is a repackaged 350D with face recognition and the same 8.0-mp sensor - still 2 mp more than D40. 3 fps of course. Anti-dust? Possible, but doubtful. Entry level users don't change lenses often.

40D is 30D with the technologies first released in 400D and G7: 5.7-micron pixel (10.4 mp) and anti-dust plus Digic III, but same 5 fps; 6 is possible, but doubtful, as it would compete with 3D on fall.

5DN is a facelift of 5D with the same (only quicker) sensor, 12.7 mp, anti-dust, Digic III, and 4 or 5 fps - either speed is easily possible, so it is a purely marketing decision by Canon. I hope it will be 5 to compete with D200. One of Canon's main goals with 5D is to reduce the cost and price (hence the $600 rebate), so a new plastic EOS-3 like body is very possible.

This brings us to the flagship model that is getting quite old. 2007 is Canon's 70-year anniversary and a 20-year anniversary of the EOS system, and PMA is the biggest photo event of the year. There is no way Canon misses it to announce 1Ds3. The projection based on the megapixel grid and a decade-long trend gives 21.0 mp output resolution for the new model:

; (ignore the "3D" label there)

; (add 5DN for spring 2007)

How can Canon introduce yet another model? Because it will not replace 1ds2, but will be an addition to the lineup. Clearly, not every pro would switch from 17 mp to 21 mp, so 1Ds2 will remain much like 350D remained after the introduction of 400D. But not forever. 1Ds2 will be discontinued in fall with the introduction of 3D at 16.5 mp. It will finally push pros to 1Ds3 without doing it in spring. So watch for a big rebate on 1Ds2 in fall.

Finally to your question, why 1D3 in fall? Historically 1D models have been introduced shortly after 1Ds models. With this year anniversaries, this fall is a perfect opportunity. If Canon wanted to replace 1D in spring, the model would be announced at the superbowl like it was in the past. But now it wasn't. So watch for a big rebate on 1DN2 inf all as well.

 Press Correspondent's gear list:Press Correspondent's gear list
SeaLife DC2000 Panasonic LX100 II Canon EOS 5D Mark III Canon EF 50mm F1.4 USM Canon EF 70-200mm F4L USM +12 more
Post (hide subjects) Posted by
T3
T3
T3
T3
T3
T3
T3
T3
T3
T3
T3
T3
T3
T3
Keyboard shortcuts:
FForum PPrevious NNext WNext unread UUpvote SSubscribe RReply QQuote BBookmark MMy threads
Color scheme? Blue / Yellow