What does your DSLR crystal ball say?

After watching the rapid evolution of DSLR imaging quality over the past 5 years, it seems to me that within another 3-4 years it could begin to slow rapidly. I'm guessing once imaging quality begins to top out, things like wireless WAN connectivity (WiMax, future CDMA/GSM evolutions, etc), and new storage technologies will be primary areas of improvement.

What do you folks see as key areas of innovation once the MP race ends? Think creative, and don't be afraid to throw out guesses about where things might be in 15 years. Could new display and print technologies create a need for resolutions and gamut far beyond what exists today? (Thus keeping imaging quality the primary focus for the foreseeable future).

To appease the Off-Topic-Police, we can limit the discussion to where the 1-series will go...although that would be a shame.. =)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Kevin Mayeux
kmayeux@hotmail . com

Well, one thing seems fairly certain for the future of the 1-series. Canon has said that for the next generation 1-series, there will only be ONE body, not two like there is now (with the 1D MKII and 1Ds MKII). This next generation 1-series body will combine high speed and high resolution (according to the interview here: http://www.e-fotografija.com/artman/publish/article_440.shtml ). My guess is that it will be a high-resolution full frame sensor, with a 1.3x on-sensor crop, like the Nikon D2X. That would obviously be the best way to combine the 1D MKII (1.3x) and 1Ds MKII (FF) into one body that would please everyone. And I assume the price would be lower too, probably somewhere near what the price of the current 1D MKII is.

Kevin Mayeux said:

After watching the rapid evolution of DSLR imaging quality over the
past 5 years, it seems to me that within another 3-4 years it could
begin to slow rapidly. I'm guessing once imaging quality begins to
top out, things like wireless WAN connectivity (WiMax, future
CDMA/GSM evolutions, etc), and new storage technologies will be
primary areas of improvement.

What do you folks see as key areas of innovation once the MP race
ends? Think creative, and don't be afraid to throw out guesses
about where things might be in 15 years. Could new display and
print technologies create a need for resolutions and gamut far
beyond what exists today? (Thus keeping imaging quality the primary
focus for the foreseeable future).

To appease the Off-Topic-Police, we can limit the discussion to
where the 1-series will go...although that would be a shame.. =)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Kevin Mayeux
kmayeux@hotmail . com

Click to expand...

That just occurred to me the other day, too - that Canon must be bringing FF and at least 16MP in the next generation for around the price of the present 1DII, or they risk loosing lots of sports shooters.

Another interesting possiblity is that 'the Pope' has indicated that they may be able to introduce a sensor which is full-colour at each photosite in 2006.

I reckon they are still going to want to increase rez, so we are possibly looking at 7MP of full cour sensors, around equivalent to 21MP.

Running the numbers, and given the increase in computing power, it should just about be possible to run that at 8fps with the technology available in 2006, although if Canon are intending to hold the price down to 1DII levels they may choose to only enable 8fps at a 1.3 crop, a la Nikon.

If the technology has the same possiblities as the Foveon in this respect they might also be able to offer other FF modes, so that it would function as a reduced rez camera giving less noise, although since Foveon were mainly considering that for dual video capability they may not bother.
Here is a link to some info on Canon's full-colour tech, for those interested.
They have a number of patents in this field.
http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1032&message=7132055

T3 said:

Kevin Mayeux said:

After watching the rapid evolution of DSLR imaging quality over the
past 5 years, it seems to me that within another 3-4 years it could
begin to slow rapidly. I'm guessing once imaging quality begins to
top out, things like wireless WAN connectivity (WiMax, future
CDMA/GSM evolutions, etc), and new storage technologies will be
primary areas of improvement.

What do you folks see as key areas of innovation once the MP race
ends? Think creative, and don't be afraid to throw out guesses
about where things might be in 15 years. Could new display and
print technologies create a need for resolutions and gamut far
beyond what exists today? (Thus keeping imaging quality the primary
focus for the foreseeable future).

To appease the Off-Topic-Police, we can limit the discussion to
where the 1-series will go...although that would be a shame.. =)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Kevin Mayeux
kmayeux@hotmail . com

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

--
Regards,
DaveMart
Please see profile for equipment

The one area in DSLR technology that Moore's observation comes into play is the read out and bandwidth. The next camera will be High resolution AND High frame rate. I think a price of the $4500 sounds reasonable.

What might change this is if they get to full measured color (or 2/3 even). This will increase the readout requirements by three fold making a high speed + high resolution body more difficult.

But me, I could still see a split being reality for the next generation as well.

Steven

--
---
New and Updated!!!
Fall 2004:
http://www.pbase.com/snoyes/image_a_week_fall2004

Lightning:
http://www.pbase.com/snoyes/lightning_strikes

Steven Noyes said:

The one area in DSLR technology that Moore's observation comes into
play is the read out and bandwidth. The next camera will be High
resolution AND High frame rate. I think a price of the $4500
sounds reasonable.

What might change this is if they get to full measured color (or
2/3 even).

Click to expand...

What's that? Especially 2/3?

This will increase the readout requirements by three

Steven Noyes said:

fold making a high speed + high resolution body more difficult.

Click to expand...

Explain please, for your students (like me!) with learning disablities!

Steven Noyes said:

But me, I could still see a split being reality for the next
generation as well.

Steven

--
---
New and Updated!!!
Fall 2004:
http://www.pbase.com/snoyes/image_a_week_fall2004

Lightning:
http://www.pbase.com/snoyes/lightning_strikes

Click to expand...

--
Regards,
DaveMart
Please see profile for equipment

I think the ONE series sounds logical- after all, most people would love a a camera with state-of-the-art speed AND resolution. But I am thinking of other improvements as well:

1) Improved dust protection on the CMOS (vibration screen, static shield, a mountable dust-vac, or something along those lines)

2) Improved LCD readouts- I would love to see a DSLR with a "heads-up-display" like in fighter aircraft, and for more functions than simple AF points. I think a stitch-assist LCD-overlay of the previous photo over the laser-matte screen would be awesome for stitching panoramas. Other useful features would be more camera info (ISO) and other settings on the HUD.

3) Improved ergonomics. Smaller and lighter, yet still fitting your hand- perhaps like the 1v without the grip. Also, I would like to see a shutter release with variable sensitivity for increased FPS. For example, the usual pause in the release for AF/metering, one pause for 1 shot at a time (one shot), and then a deep, graded pause for 3-10 fps depending on pressure- move from stationary shooting to bursts without the need to switch modes.

4) Improved electronics- with ultra-high resolution, memory space will always be an issue, and the benefits of in-camera cropping will be appreciated. Imagine shooting a speaker at an event, but wanting to save space on the CF card while your lens won't perfectly frame the face- shoot at 22MP, but then crop a 6MP image of the face (and save only the 6MP image). This could be done easiest after the fact with the software on the LCD, but even more sofisticated controls on the camera could eventually control a heads-up-display box where the shot is cropped as it is taken. A joystick controller could put the box anywhere.

5) Imroved AF- this one is obvious, but a full-frame AF coverage would be ideal- perhaps still "only" 45 points but distributed corner to corner. There are certainly optical limitations to this one, but there is certainly a way to make it work- there has to be

6) Eventually I think we'll see the fusion of digital still and video capability. Imagine a high ISO (ISO 12800) that is virtually noise-free, in the setting of massive storage space (cards measured in terabytes), and an imager that can shoot at 30fps bursts and the ability to freezeframe any one of those images to enlarge to poster-size prints... It is a ways off, but I think there is some potential there way down the road. Imaging shooting a batter at the plate, shooting at 30fps (or faster), and effortlessly being able to quickly review the 22MP images at a clean ISO 6400 and choosing the image with the bat-on-ball.... every time! Of course with technology like that the concept would lessen the impact of such an image over time...

7) More EXIF info- imagine EXIF data that stores whether IS was on or not, the temperature of the shooting environment, the location (GPS- already have that with Nikon). Even more (and this isn't my idea)... EXIF that captures distance information for every pixel in the image. Thus you can go into Photoshop and selectively alter, say, all pixels between 6 and 10 feet from the camera, while others are left unchanged. This was not my idea, but I have read articles where "experts" believe this would be possible at some point. Wow!

8) More WIFI options... as Wifi gains ground, the uses are going to increase. I used to talk about Wifi as being desirable during my sportshooting days, and many on these forums said how dumb and un-workable idea that would be...Well it is getting better. My town is moving to a city-wide WiFi coverage hopefully within the next year or so. Imagine never needing to take a memory card with you- just connect through the municipality WiFi connection wherever you are, and look though your images already download on your computer at home. Imagine surfing the web for an updated firmware while in the field and downloading it right into the camera from the camera, or viewing (importing shots) from a collaborating photographer on an assingment, loading them directing into your camera so you can chimp his shots too! Won't that get the sportsshooter guys going...

I can't imagine how many possibilities there still are. I think image quality is still highest-priority, and many of these ideas will never make it, but I think there may be a time and place for many of them- we'll see!

Ken

http://www.kennethturley.com

I don't know if this is a prediction or a pipe dream

1. 1D MkIII to be based on the current 1Ds MKII and will replace both the 1Ds MkII and 1D MkII

2. 16.67 MP FF at 5FPS

3. In camera crop to 10MP (1.3x) at 8.5FPS

4. Price will be about as much as the 1Ds MkII, but I might buy one anyway. I figure I could hold onto this camera for at least 5 years, probably closer to 10.

--
Bob

David Martin said:

Steven Noyes said:

The one area in DSLR technology that Moore's observation comes into
play is the read out and bandwidth. The next camera will be High
resolution AND High frame rate. I think a price of the $4500
sounds reasonable.

What might change this is if they get to full measured color (or
2/3 even).

Click to expand...

What's that? Especially 2/3?

Click to expand...

Full measured color would provide RGB data at all photo-sites. Similar to a Foveon type technology. As it is we only get 1 color (50% are green, 25% red and 25% blue) at each location and interpolate the other colors. In general, this does a pretty good job but does decrease sharpness and introduces moire artifacts.

Canon has a patent using LCD shutters that can change colors from Green/Blue or Green Red. This would provide a method to get 100% green and 50% red and blue. While not as good as 100% green, it would go along way to increasing acuity while keeping aliasing (luminance moire and color moire) at bay.

The trade-off is that your ISO would be cut in half. You have to take two pictures and combine them so "time-aliasing" might occur while you take the image. But then again, the noise would also improve as you get more data in the image.... Or to be on the software design team of that project

Or think if they could get the colors to be: Green/Blue/clear and Green/Red/Clear. True B/W

If the D2X provides really good image quality, I think we will see this sooner rather than later.

Member said:

This will increase the readout requirements by three

Member said:

fold making a high speed + high resolution body more difficult.

Click to expand...

Explain please, for your students (like me!) with learning
disablities!

Click to expand...

If you are sampling 3 pieces of data at each photo-site, you will need 3 times the bandwidth to get the same frame rate. As it is, an 8MP 1D Mk II only needs to read about 70 Million samples of data a second. If it was possible to get all three pieces of color data at 8 Million different places AND maintain 8.5 fps, we would need to read about 210 Million samples of data per second.

Member said:

Member said:

But me, I could still see a split being reality for the next
generation as well.

Steven

--
---
New and Updated!!!
Fall 2004:
http://www.pbase.com/snoyes/image_a_week_fall2004

Lightning:
http://www.pbase.com/snoyes/lightning_strikes

Click to expand...

--
Regards,
DaveMart
Please see profile for equipment

Click to expand...

--
---
New and Updated!!!
Fall 2004:
http://www.pbase.com/snoyes/image_a_week_fall2004

Lightning:
http://www.pbase.com/snoyes/lightning_strikes

Why not 22MP @ 8.5 fps? Why go backwards with a stupid crop and no real increase bandwidth? There is no reason why the 1Ds Mk III (or whatever) would not be FF and do 8.5fps @ full resolution.

Steven

Bob Howland said:

I don't know if this is a prediction or a pipe dream

1. 1D MkIII to be based on the current 1Ds MKII and will replace
both the 1Ds MkII and 1D MkII

2. 16.67 MP FF at 5FPS

3. In camera crop to 10MP (1.3x) at 8.5FPS

4. Price will be about as much as the 1Ds MkII, but I might buy one
anyway. I figure I could hold onto this camera for at least 5
years, probably closer to 10.

--
Bob

Click to expand...

--
---
New and Updated!!!
Fall 2004:
http://www.pbase.com/snoyes/image_a_week_fall2004

Lightning:
http://www.pbase.com/snoyes/lightning_strikes

1: D-SLR will continue to fall into two camps 1.5/1.6 crop and Full Frame. Pro models will be available in either. Consumer models will stay with 1.5/1.6 crop.

2: Prices will continue to come down features go up for both consumer, crossover, and Pro D-SLR's basic models will within 3 years fall bellow $500 USD intermediate models will see the widest choices and these will be between $1000-2000 USD. Pro models will drop in price the most and the best ones will fall to about $3000-$5000 max.

3: Since digital make adding features much easier you will see cameras do more than just take pictures. Today you see cheapo camera phones. By 5 years many D-SLR's will include the ability to be used as phones and to send images through the internet to users of such. IE: The D-SLR that captures a Super Bowl winning touchdown will be able to have the image sent to the sport/news organizations immediately for quick press distribution.

4: Megapixels will continue to grow but at a slower pace. in 5 years top pro model D-SLR's will be 25 mp, crossover models 12-15 mp. basic models 6-10 mp.

5: Colour , clarity, and noise levels will continue to improve. This will lead through even better imaging precision lenses to take big advantage of these. Lens prices will too come down including "pro" type lenses.

6: Pro model cameras wil have built in wireless technology for studio, comercial shooting to allow all lighting to be operated without additional modules attached to camera body.

7: Film cameras , firstly consumer P&S ( within 3-4 years ), then consumer SLR ( 4-5 years ), next pro SLR and M/F cameras ( 7-10 years ) will fade away into history.

8:The EVF camera will grab a larger share of even the semi-pro to pro market as EVF viewfinders get better. It will still be a niche market. Consumer EVF's will displace typical P&S ers though.

9: Home printing technologies will drop even faster in prices and offer even better quality. Consumer photo labs will then have to leap forward in print quality and pricing, but moreso will will see fewer consumer only photolabs and more combined photo labs offering top quality services to consumers and the highest pro services to the proffessional photographer.

10: Digital in time will allow the pro shooters to truly market themselves for their skills and craft and do it universally based on time. Print prices and newer imaging servicese will be lower in price, but the artist will be paid for his/her time and ability above all. This will force new ideas, visions and endeavours to make sure pros are better artists so as to seperate the wheat from the chaff.

Kevin Mayeux said:

After watching the rapid evolution of DSLR imaging quality over the
past 5 years, it seems to me that within another 3-4 years it could
begin to slow rapidly. I'm guessing once imaging quality begins to
top out, things like wireless WAN connectivity (WiMax, future
CDMA/GSM evolutions, etc), and new storage technologies will be
primary areas of improvement.

What do you folks see as key areas of innovation once the MP race
ends? Think creative, and don't be afraid to throw out guesses
about where things might be in 15 years. Could new display and
print technologies create a need for resolutions and gamut far
beyond what exists today? (Thus keeping imaging quality the primary
focus for the foreseeable future).

To appease the Off-Topic-Police, we can limit the discussion to
where the 1-series will go...although that would be a shame.. =)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Kevin Mayeux
kmayeux@hotmail . com

Click to expand...

--
visit my photo gallary of images from my 10D

http://phileas.fotopic.net/c258181.html

In 15 years we will not be using any solid state technology as we know it. I believe we will use organic sensors that respond to colour. I believe we will have cameras with a resolution of 50-100MP, but due to amazing improvements/discoveries in storage tecnology and processing power, the performance of these cameras will be way inadvance of what we have today.

The cameras will probably have ISO sensitivity 3-25600, and have the full power of todays photoshop on board.

JPG will be extinct even for what the internet becomes, (because in 15 yr, we will have fibre optics to the home running 1000Mb/s links). Cameras will use some totally new format I'm sure along with whatever RAW evolves to.

Navel gazing 15 years out is pretty dangerous IMO and bound to be 99% wrong.

3-5 years is a safer bet and I'm guessing that in 2008 a 1Ds replacement would be 24-30MP Foveon like sensor, 8 fps 25-50 frames, ISO 25-6400 (clean at 3200), 3" OLED screen (LCD will go), WiFI, GPS, USB3/FireWire1600. Canon will offer something like Nikon's crop option, but 1.3x and 1.6x and 2.0x options. It will support png and/or JPG2000. The flash sync will back to 1/500 and shutter speeds will be 30-16000 again. It will offer M, Av, Tv, Iv (ISO priority) and P modes. It will have true colour metering like Nikon, and will use new battery tech good for 2500 shots. It will weigh 1.25kg and there will be a slew of new L glass released.

1. If 6MP is good enough for many applications (including National Geographic and Sports Illustrated) and 16.7MP matches or exceeds MF film quality, what is the point of going to 22MP at this time? The required smaller pixels are likely to just increase price and image noise, and provide no visible improvement in image quality for the vast majority of applications.

2. 22MP at 8.5 fps results in 187MP/sec. My scheme results in only 85MP/sec. Everything else being equal, a slower pixel processing rate (i.e., slower clock speed) uses less power and generates less heat. Therefore it is easier and cheaper to engineer and probably cheaper to manufacture.

I'm more interested in getting the camera price down and increasing high ISO performance than in having the absolute maximum number of pixels.

Steven Noyes said:

Steven

Bob Howland said:

I don't know if this is a prediction or a pipe dream

1. 1D MkIII to be based on the current 1Ds MKII and will replace
both the 1Ds MkII and 1D MkII

2. 16.67 MP FF at 5FPS

3. In camera crop to 10MP (1.3x) at 8.5FPS

4. Price will be about as much as the 1Ds MkII, but I might buy one
anyway. I figure I could hold onto this camera for at least 5
years, probably closer to 10.

--
Bob

Click to expand...

--
---
New and Updated!!!
Fall 2004:
http://www.pbase.com/snoyes/image_a_week_fall2004

Lightning:
http://www.pbase.com/snoyes/lightning_strikes

Click to expand...

--
Bob

Kevin Mayeux said:

After watching the rapid evolution of DSLR imaging quality over the
past 5 years, it seems to me that within another 3-4 years it could
begin to slow rapidly.

Click to expand...

For myself, I'd like to think there could be some advances that
could make today's cameras look really awful.

Depending on the lighting situation, a few of the images I take
can come out amazingly great, and a few others come out amazingly
bad, and most others are so-so. I mean, in comparason to what I
saw when I was standing there looking at the view with my
human eye.

Resolution is rapidly becoming a non-issue, but the dark parts and
the bright parts of the image... cityscape photography is all about
managing that, it sometimes seems.

Compared to what the human eye can do in terms of dynamic
range, I see tons of room for improvement.

why would some1 waste 100 MPix in a normal camera? now, lets get realistic... what would you do with a Image with 100 Mpix?

i think a max of 22 Mpix or so would be just enough for any photographic needs. now, going to that, a 3site color senzor, or maybe 7sitecolor... who knows would be cool. I'd think improvements into ISO noise, to have clean pictures at iso 3200 would be also nice.

fast frames, dunno, 8fps is quite enough isent it? ok, let's have that FF, in a at least 3colorsite senzor.

so, i see the next 1ds in 2007/2008 having this:

FF, 22MPix, low noise ISO even at superfast 3200, smaller size, vocal commands, and maybe something like Macros.... to be able to record a couple of operating things....

like: Run Program.... Do a shot, not change WB to setting X, shoot again, bracket 5 shots from +4 to -4 then layer them, using that program i Uploaded yesterday, etc...

I would love something like this on camera.....

or doing like... focus on that, shoot, focus on point 9 bracket 3 shots, focus on whatever.... kind of scripting, being able to really use the camera settings abd features, without touching....and this maybe coupled with some vocals... would be cool. its not a must of course...

what would be a must? SENZOR CLEANING.... on camera.... cheap. being able to clean it fast and cheap, IN FIELD, would be great.

Also, autocleaning features... i dont care if i shoot then i go home after a day shooting and find out that i had dust on the senzor. I woul LOVE to have the camera autodetect this.... otherwise, i woul OVERUSE the cleaning for the "just in case" scenario....

enough???

i would also love a good neckstrap something antisweat

component type cameras more like a digital back that snaps
onto several devices. From camera to telescope, a unified d-back
could fit many uses. Microscope photography is one area that
this fourm never discusses, yet various scientific arenas are growing
with digital. When digital back come down in price, they could be
coupled with many different uses, not just your typical dslr camera.

Todays dslr camera will be more a consumer camera. Despite the
present day prices, they will be the common "pocket" camera.

Pro cameras will follow the Hasse-Imacon or PhaseOne P25 model
with detachable backs and portable power with both CF type cards
or external belt drives as files sizes go over 100 MB native capture.
Camera bodies will grow to MF size as chip size increases. The MF
name will be dropped and there will be simple chip size number
names.

Here is an image of the future at the pro level...... but consumer cameras
will be pocket size even at over 12MP.

http://www.hasselbladusa.com/frames/contentframe.asp?pageURL=/general/SectionToItem.asp?secId=1135

One thing I see for certain applications is a tracking device.

A small pin on tracker will be put on a subject and the camera
set on a tripod or wall mount that follows the subject and takes
a picture based on onboard data base. This will be used for
wedding pros and other events where you can station a camera
around the room. Face recognition technology might be included.
Take a series of pictures of the wedding party within the first
few frames, then position the camera and it will lock on the subjects
at random based on your settings of importance. This will be a
second camera of course placed where you can not go such as
close to the alter during the ceremony.

This technology already exists, it can or will be applied for the
public if demand is there. It can be used for home security or
any variety of uses and can spread to the digital use in the same
way as WiFi. Imagine a home digital camera sending you pictures
every few minutes, tracking and projecting on a wall at your office
instead of an oil painting?

London was experimenting with this type of technology, so why
not in situations for event photographers?

PelikanUS said:

why would some1 waste 100 MPix in a normal camera? now, lets get
realistic... what would you do with a Image with 100 Mpix?

Click to expand...

That is called a Scanning Back.... used for fine art reproduction and
large panoramic pictures.

Arial photography and military might be interested too.....

Guess we might need a lens that is pretty darn big.... anyone
know the math?

What would you do with a 100 megapixels?
You'd love it.
It would be like having a view camera in a 35 mm box.
With ever increasing hard drives and computer speeds, the file size
would not be a problem.

maljo

Future cameras won't involve our eyes, they'll hook directly to the brain.
3D, color as rich as you can imagine it, sound, motion, smell, taste, emotion.

It won't be a picture of Half Dome. It'll be Half Dome in your head.

You will need a rather large hard drive, however.

maljo

PelikanUS said:

why would some1 waste 100 MPix in a normal camera? now, lets get
realistic... what would you do with a Image with 100 Mpix?

i think a max of 22 Mpix or so would be just enough for any
photographic needs. now, going to that, a 3site color senzor, or
maybe 7sitecolor... who knows would be cool. I'd think improvements
into ISO noise, to have clean pictures at iso 3200 would be also
nice.

Click to expand...

So that's why we will be seeing 33MP MF soon. We are talking 15 years from now. Imagine, you would not need a TC ever again. Also 100MP matches the resolution of the human eye.