Poor 810 sales

Started 2 months ago | Discussions
photoreddi
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Re: Not really - but Thom Hogan has poor ad revenues... :)
In reply to MisterHairy, 2 months ago

MisterHairy wrote:

photoreddi wrote:

AZ Steve wrote:

Right on, Suede. It's a relief to me to see someone responsible saying this about Thom: I had thought maybe I was just getting sour in my old age.

Responsible? More likely similar souring. Suede's comment

IMO Thom is slowly - but steadily - moving closer to a kind of Ken Rockwell status. That is; he can be entertaining, but it's been a long time now since I really took anything he says as being even remotely related to reality and verifiable facts.

is devoid of facts, is just a personal opinion that is REALLY unrelated to reality and seems to have been written solely for its entertainment value, kind of what we might expect from a soured troll. Maybe he's been reading Thom less than he used to and is now peering too often into his mirror.

He's right though.

Yes, Thom is often right, sometimes wrong, while the Suede is here primarily to brush his ego, sometimes by attempting to denigrate others.

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FloEvans
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Re: See this: ugly sales figures Re: Invisible seismic shift?
In reply to Cliff Fujii, 2 months ago

Cliff Fujii wrote:

According to last year's sales figures for Europe and the US, DSLR were seeing an upsurge in sales while MLCs have been flat. There was a bump in fourth quarter 2012 but that flattened out at the end of the fourth quarter.

Shipping by type in Americas and Europe (MR-mirrorless DSLR-digital single lens reflex)

No matter how you crunch it, 2011, 2012, and 2013 were bad years for mirrorless cameras. With less than 8% of the market, Olympus is not looking good for 2015. They have suspended dividens until they become profitable again. With Panasonic half of it's imaging business, that doesn't leave very many players in the MLC arena. Will Fujifilm be the last man standing?

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Cliff

This is what I don't get about "mirrorless is taking over!" crazy people. If anything the compact mirrorless market is more threatened by cellphones than the DSLR.

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MisterHairy
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Re: Not really - but Thom Hogan has poor ad revenues... :)
In reply to photoreddi, 2 months ago

photoreddi wrote:

MisterHairy wrote:

photoreddi wrote:

AZ Steve wrote:

Right on, Suede. It's a relief to me to see someone responsible saying this about Thom: I had thought maybe I was just getting sour in my old age.

Responsible? More likely similar souring. Suede's comment

IMO Thom is slowly - but steadily - moving closer to a kind of Ken Rockwell status. That is; he can be entertaining, but it's been a long time now since I really took anything he says as being even remotely related to reality and verifiable facts.

is devoid of facts, is just a personal opinion that is REALLY unrelated to reality and seems to have been written solely for its entertainment value, kind of what we might expect from a soured troll. Maybe he's been reading Thom less than he used to and is now peering too often into his mirror.

He's right though.

Yes, Thom is often right, sometimes wrong, while the Suede is here primarily to brush his ego, sometimes by attempting to denigrate others.

As you know, I was not referring to Thom. He is quite uncontrollably wrong.

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Digetydog
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Re: Unrelated to ff or sony Re: In seven years
In reply to rhlpetrus, 2 months ago

rhlpetrus wrote:

Cliff Fujii wrote:

Sony already has. I don't see a lot of sales there also.

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Cliff

The big numbers are in the less than 1.5k dollars price range. That's where Nikon and Canon are certainly seeing a drop in sales, while ML is moving up. They need a serious aps-c ml system, then they can think about ff.

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The ML camera makers are all hemorrhaging cash - every single one. If they lose $100 per camera, they can't make it up on volume.

While nikon/canon aren't printing money at the low end if dlsr sales, they are profitable.  Switching completely to ML would be dumb.

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Digetydog
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Re: In seven years
In reply to chuxter, 2 months ago

chuxter wrote:

Cliff Fujii wrote:

...

THEN, we can get down to designing cameras in the $2000-$5000 range that WILL sell in huge volumes.

Analogy: We had to go to the moon [at great risk and expense] before we could go there en mass.

Step away from the Pipe!!

There won't be a $2500-5000 camera selling in "huge volumes" until inflation ruins the value of the dollar.

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Josh152
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Re: May also spike if
In reply to Rick Knepper, 2 months ago

Rick Knepper wrote:

Canon's hi-rez challenger comes to market in a 1 series body at 1 series prices, comes to market with the "same ol' same" DR, less pixels than a Nikon/Sony or some combination of the three.

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I wouldn't be surprised to see Canon do something silly like have it be a 5D size or 6D size body with a 28mp sensor that has the same noise, banding, and low DR of their current sensors, an AF system that is somewhere between the 6D and 5DIII, and charge $4000.  Then again it also wouldn't surprise me to see them just make it 1 series body for $7000- $8000 either.

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inasir1971
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Re: other theoretical advantages
In reply to chuxter, 2 months ago

chuxter wrote:

inasir1971 wrote:

am interested in better, not cheaper, and a sensor with a global shutter would give exactly the same advantages such as sync speed to a DSLR

But if you have a camera w/ an electronic global shutter [both start and stop...I refrain from using the SLR terms "first curtain" and "second curtain"], how can you use the legacy term "Reflex"? Why would you need to also have a mirror?

Doubtful that on sensor PDAF will ever rival the dedicated AF sensor that a mirror allows.

EVFs are not superior to OVFs (see my reasons above)

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Ben Stonewall
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Re: Poor 810 sales
In reply to chuxter, 2 months ago

chuxter wrote:

Ben Stonewall wrote:

Hogan is uncanny, I haven't bought one and neither have any of my friends.

I looked at your profile. It appears as though you don't have any gear, thus it isn't strange that you would start by buying a D810. Tell me who your friends are and I'll check them out too...

BTW, Thom used to be "uncanny", but lately he's just "un".

I almost bought a Leica M6 once.

Most of my friends don't have a camera, so I'm subjected to their rotten selfies and food pics!

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Josh152
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Re: Thom Hogan Too Negative
In reply to Thoughts R Us, 2 months ago

Thoughts R Us wrote:

Thom Hogan is way too negative. He gets depressing to read.

No matter what, he's always down on the camera companies, and especially Nikon.

Given the way he writes about Nikon, I'm surprised they are even in existence. I am also surprised that Thom still uses Nikon products. Interesting. So he criticizes them as if they are morons who can't do anything right, yet still buys their equipment.

As they say, the real measure is how someone spends their money; all else is BS.

I respect Thom, and have always learned something from reading him...but now it's gotten to the point that I largely tune him out. I can almost predict what he will write:

Nikon just about can't get anything right. Even when they get something right, they mess it up in some other way. Nikon doesn't listen to or pay attention to customers. Nikon makes bad business decisions. Nikon can't manage inventory properly. Nikon can't even name their products properly. Nikon doesn't price properly, they don't manage releases properly, they have gaping holes in lens lineup...blah...blah...blah.

Nikon is clueless. (But I still keep buying their products)...by Thom.

With the way his writing about Nikon shifted so far to the negative,  I would not be surprised to find out Nikon turned him down for a sponsorship and/or job and now Hogan is just butt hurt over it.

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David314
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Fuji claims 5msec lag
In reply to jcvjcvjcvjcv, 2 months ago

jcvjcvjcvjcv wrote:

It's not just the refreshrate of the EVF, it's also the inputlag. A $1000 monitor like the Dell U3014 suffers from the same: there is a black hole where it detains the inputsignal to mess around with it. Around 30 ms later the image is displayed. Except for game mode, making that the only useable mode (oh wait, no; it has ugly colors).

Fuji xt-1 claims 5msec lag

and they have some fast shutter release specs

nikon seems to be using an oled overlay in the d810 viewfinder

perhaps the next nikon will have a hybrid viewfinder that can display live view images or direct optical off  the mirror

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chuxter
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Re: How?
In reply to PerL, 2 months ago

PerL wrote:

chuxter wrote:

No. A "proper" ML camera will have totally different lens designs. They will be mounted closer to the sensor and have fewer elements. They will be smaller and lighter.

How will a 300 2.8 be smaller and lighter? Or a 70-200 2.8?, a 50 1.8? or a pancake like Canons 40 mm 2.8?

A ML design doesn't need a retro-focus lens to clear the mirror. This is most important w/ wide-angle lenses, but it also affects any zoom design that includes a WA focal length. A 300mm lens will probably not be different, but it can mount closer to the sensor. If the designers keep the sensor at the rear [which is a good place for it], the total package length will be shorter.

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inasir1971
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Re: How?
In reply to chuxter, 2 months ago

chuxter wrote:

PerL wrote:

chuxter wrote:

No. A "proper" ML camera will have totally different lens designs. They will be mounted closer to the sensor and have fewer elements. They will be smaller and lighter.

How will a 300 2.8 be smaller and lighter? Or a 70-200 2.8?, a 50 1.8? or a pancake like Canons 40 mm 2.8?

A ML design doesn't need a retro-focus lens to clear the mirror. This is most important w/ wide-angle lenses, but it also affects any zoom design that includes a WA focal length. A 300mm lens will probably not be different, but it can mount closer to the sensor. If the designers keep the sensor at the rear [which is a good place for it], the total package length will be shorter.

You are completely ignoring the issue of off-axis ray angles and digital sensors.

Assuming we are only talking about full frame sensors, they need to overcome the following issues extreme ray angles:

  • color shift caused by IR cut filter
  • pixel vignetting
  • effect of cover glass

(just see issues with A7 and rangefinder wide angles)

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chuxter
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Re: other theoretical advantages
In reply to inasir1971, 2 months ago

inasir1971 wrote:

chuxter wrote:

inasir1971 wrote:

am interested in better, not cheaper, and a sensor with a global shutter would give exactly the same advantages such as sync speed to a DSLR

But if you have a camera w/ an electronic global shutter [both start and stop...I refrain from using the SLR terms "first curtain" and "second curtain"], how can you use the legacy term "Reflex"? Why would you need to also have a mirror?

Doubtful that on sensor PDAF will ever rival the dedicated AF sensor that a mirror allows.

Your comment is not in reply to mine, which was questioning retaining the "R".

You join a long line of critics of change. It's disturbing. You will either die or get used to it.

EVFs are not superior to OVFs (see my reasons above)

What reasons above?

The subject of viewfinders is an interesting one:

  • What is a viewfinder for?
  • How "good" does a viewfinder have to be to "find a view"?
  • Is it imperative that an EVF be superior to an OVF in every measure?

A viewfinder is used to frame a scene so that when the shutter is operated, the picture contains an image of the subject. Some of the first "viewfinders" were nothing more than a wire frame sitting on top of the camera [Speed Graphic]:

Sure, many cameras of that era had a ground glass screen that could be used to precisely frame a scene, but these were not primarily "view finders"; rather they were "focusing screens". A pure viewfinder is used to simply "find a view".  For the vast majority of users, the camera/lens of a modern dSLR has a quite good automatic system for establishing focus. Mostly, the viewfinder has to allow the photographer to accurately frame the scene. There are some other tasks, like supplying information and allowing the photographer to select/monitor focus points.

SO how "good" does an EVF have to be to do this job? The truth is that it doesn't need to be as good as many people insist. I have an old Coolpix 5700 that is a ML camera [although we didn't use that term in 2002]. It's EVF is crude, but I have never failed to be able to frame a scene, even when the 5700 was incapable of focusing. Some people ALWAYS mention that the view through an EVF is "ugly". That can be true. They say that it doesn't look like the "real" image through an OVF. That is also true. They say that they can't "enjoy" the view through an EVF, which is silly. Most people have TWO eyes; open the other eye and enjoy the scene all you want! They say the image in a EVF is not real; but neither is the image I'm looking at right now on my computer monitor and when I print out a picture, that's not real either. Yet, I never hear these same people reject CRT/LCD monitors and ink jet printers! It's got to be some bias they have?

I for one am willing to give up a pretty, optical view through a viewfinder to get the advantages:

  • Overlay of information...lots of information! And the information can overlay the image when appropriate
  • A good simulation of what the picture will actually look like when taken
  • Notification of "blown-out" areas BEFORE the picture is taken
  • Magnification of a live image for checking focus in advance of capture or to focus manually
  • Never having to pull camera from eye to "chimp" a result [besides, the LCD on the back can't be viewed critically in daylight]

Then there is the issue of refresh rate. Often action photographers say that an EVF is too slow for them to capture peak action. That was perhaps true 10+ years ago, but today many EVFs have very high refresh rates. As I have documented several times before, humans don't have a very accurate or fast nervous system. The human brain can at best move a finger to within 0.2 seconds [in response to some external event that is viewed visually]. It would seem intuitive that an EVF that has a refresh rate 2 orders of magnitude faster than 0.2 seconds would be quite satisfactory. That the die-hards refuse to admit this is also a bias, I believe.

One point that isn't discussed much is that a ML camera doesn't need an EVF and an LCD! It needs one or the other. That frees up real estate, makes the batteries last longer, makes the camera lighter, etc. I would prefer a ML camera w/ an EVF, but it's OK to make them both ways.

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Cliff Fujii
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Re: See this: ugly sales figures Re: Invisible seismic shift?
In reply to FloEvans, 2 months ago

That is the big question isn't it.  There is something about today's MILC offerings that is so unsatisfying that it's affecting sales.  Even with the fire sale prices that we have seen recently.

Because of workflow considerations, I left the 4/3 experiment a couple of years ago.  I have a Nikon only workflow that works for me.  I also have a Nikon V3 for snapshots and also to keep up with Nikon's MILC thinking.  I know that I'm really dissatisfied with the small MILC body.  I think a camera about the size of a Df is just about right for me especially when I use heavy lenses like the 70-200 f/2.8 Nikkor.  I actually tried to use that lens with the V3 and it was so front heavy that it was unstable.

I agree with you that the cellphone camera is the lightweight juggernaut right now.  With continued improvements by Apple and Microsoft, in a couple of years the low end of the camera spectrum will be gone.

As long as the EVF is not the equal of the OVF, I won't change my main camera focus from DSLRs to MILC.  With the new OLED overlays, it is now possible for Nikon to create an OVF that can rival the EVF in features (I'm not sure that would be great).  I like the OLED in the D810 because I can now see the focusing points better at 2EV.  Before the D810, only the D4 had a low light viewfinder because they used LEDs in the OVF while cameras like the D800 had issues displaying its focal points in low light.

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Cliff

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Rick Knepper
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Re: May also spike if
In reply to Josh152, 1 week ago

Josh152 wrote:

Rick Knepper wrote:

Canon's hi-rez challenger comes to market in a 1 series body at 1 series prices, comes to market with the "same ol' same" DR, less pixels than a Nikon/Sony or some combination of the three.

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Rick Knepper, photographer, shooting for pleasure. It is better to have It and not need It than need It and not have It. Various RAW comparisons at Link below. Includes 5D3 vs D800E (new uploads), 5D3 vs. 6D, Zeiss lenses etc. https://app.box.com/s/71w40ita6hrcfghojaie

I wouldn't be surprised to see Canon do something silly like have it be a 5D size or 6D size body with a 28mp sensor

This would be a non-starter for me if such a camera was presented as their hi-rez offering.

that has the same noise, banding, and low DR of their current sensors,

This would be a non-starter for me.

an AF system that is somewhere between the 6D and 5DIII,

I use a 6D so I wouldn't be opposed to the same AF or a slight improvement.

and charge $4000.

This would be a non-starter for me.

Then again it also wouldn't surprise me to see them just make it 1 series body

I'd have to reserve judgment on this aspect until I handled it a bit. Needless to say, it would be a tripod camera for sure.

for $7000- $8000 either.

Well, if $4k is a non-starter...

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Rick Knepper, photographer, shooting for pleasure. It is better to have It and not need It than need It and not have It. Various RAW comparisons at Link below. Includes 5D3 vs D800E (new uploads), 5D3 vs. 6D, Zeiss lenses etc. https://app.box.com/s/71w40ita6hrcfghojaie

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