Interesting read by Thom Hogan

Started 8 months ago | Discussions
jcharding
Senior MemberPosts: 2,031Gear list
Like?
I thought Thom was dead on
In reply to Geedorama, 8 months ago

Having been a user of many of those systems over the last decade, yes even Pentax, I don't disagree with his major premise, which is that no current camera maker is currently trustworthy as we enter this next potential pivot - mirrorless and how that affects the primary lens mount of each camera maker.

I disagree, slightly, with Thom's final conclusion when he advises specific Canon and Nikon bodies because I think that Thom hasn't applied his major premise well in this instance - its unclear how the Canon and Nikon mounts will be able to move forward into and through this next pivot point.  Sure Canon and Nikon could keep their current mounts and try to make them work in a mirrorless world, but IMHO there are a lot of challenges.

I agree with Thom about Pentax, even though I just helped my sister buy a K5 Mark II (or whatever its called), because it is really unclear where they can go.

I agree with Thom about Sony and m43, and also question Sony's ... stability... given the number of focus changes they have had since buying Minolta.  Starting from their refusal to repair Minolta lenses to the focus shift to mirrorless full frame ... people may think and hope they know what Sony is doing but IMHO its hard to trust.

I don't think Thom paid enough attention to Fuji and Samsung.  Two very different sets of camera DNA, but with their own respective strengths each has the ability to do something interesting - if not special.

-- hide signature --
 jcharding's gear list:jcharding's gear list
Fujifilm FinePix X100 Olympus PEN E-P2 Olympus PEN E-P3 Fujifilm X-Pro1 Olympus OM-D E-M5 +10 more
Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
stoppingdown
Regular MemberPosts: 380Gear list
Like?
Re: I think Thom makes valid points....
In reply to tesilab, 8 months ago

tesilab wrote:

I'm glad your lenses are still working, and I hope they continue to do so. But how long is it fair to expect them to continue to work with all the electronic complexity involved?

A lens just needs to auto-focus and move aperture blades; eventually doing stabilisation. Nikon and Canon do since quite a few time, and there's no visible reason for which they should change. Indeed, I do think they will stay the same for quite a long time. It is also quite possible to enhance the interface between the lens and the camera by staying backward compatible, as Nikon and Canon (specially the former) did.

Focusing by wire is definitely nice, but not a needed feature. I think that mirrorless makers were right in introducing it, since they took the chance of implementing it in brand new systems. Then I expect that the new mirrorless mounts stabilise.

Some of us are shooting with 50 year old lenses with no problem. "Disposable commodities" doesn't sound right, because they are so expensive, but we have to face facts. Lenses won't have the life expectancy they used too, unless they are superbly made all mechanical designs.

Well, so far manufacturers were able to. I don't see why Sony, Olympus, Panasonic and Fuji shouldn't be able to, unless they're doing planned obsolescence, which would make me very angry.

-- hide signature --

Fabrizio Giudici
http://stoppingdown.net

 stoppingdown's gear list:stoppingdown's gear list
Nikon D7000 Sony Alpha NEX-6 Nikon AF-S Nikkor 300mm f/4D ED-IF Nikon AF Nikkor 85mm f/1.8D Nikon AF Nikkor 180mm f/2.8D ED-IF +9 more
Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
EinsteinsGhost
Forum ProPosts: 11,547Gear list
Like?
Re: I think Thom makes valid points....
In reply to stoppingdown, 8 months ago

tesilab wrote:

I'm glad your lenses are still working, and I hope they continue to do so. But how long is it fair to expect them to continue to work with all the electronic complexity involved?

A lens just needs to auto-focus and move aperture blades; eventually doing stabilisation. Nikon and Canon do since quite a few time, and there's no visible reason for which they should change. Indeed, I do think they will stay the same for quite a long time. It is also quite possible to enhance the interface between the lens and the camera by staying backward compatible, as Nikon and Canon (specially the former) did.

Focusing by wire is definitely nice, but not a needed feature. I think that mirrorless makers were right in introducing it, since they took the chance of implementing it in brand new systems. Then I expect that the new mirrorless mounts stabilise.

Some of us are shooting with 50 year old lenses with no problem. "Disposable commodities" doesn't sound right, because they are so expensive, but we have to face facts. Lenses won't have the life expectancy they used too, unless they are superbly made all mechanical designs.

Well, so far manufacturers were able to. I don't see why Sony, Olympus, Panasonic and Fuji shouldn't be able to, unless they're doing planned obsolescence, which would make me very angry.

-- hide signature --

Fabrizio Giudici
http://stoppingdown.net

Did you read my post above? How well does Nikon support the older screw drive lenses? Why did Canon use DBW mechanism on 85/1.2?

This kinda reminds me of debate in automotive world from over a decade ago when DBW throttle was gaining ground and people were yearning for manual linkage. Good points were made from both sides but a decade later... DBW isn't going anywhere.

 EinsteinsGhost's gear list:EinsteinsGhost's gear list
Sony Cyber-shot DSC-F828 Sony SLT-A55 Sony Alpha NEX-6 Sigma 18-250mm F3.5-6.3 DC OS HSM Sony 135mm F2.8 (T4.5) STF +12 more
Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
liquid stereo
Veteran MemberPosts: 7,031Gear list
Like?
Especially a Sony system
In reply to Jefenator, 8 months ago

Jefenator wrote:

Good article.

It does seem like a bit of a strange and treacherous time to be buying in to a system.

I've heard a few sentiments to the effect that Sony should now stay the course. If the latest rumor of the week is true, they may be doing that by concentrating on FE lenses. If they can inspire some confidence by filling out the lineup more quickly than expected, and really get the AF together to back up the hype, in the full-frame bodies, that could really be something.

All the while, I'm biding my time with a bunch of legacy lenses and an A7 (all set from 17mm to 300mm thank you very much). Hopefully by the time this body wears out, a clear long-term strategy will emerge. I like what Sony is doing so far with high-performance primes for the FE lineup. I'm a bit hesitant to invest, however after failing to sell my old SEL24f18z at a pretty substantial loss (and I bought that used).

Sony has the track record that is not enviable.

They throw many things at the wall and see what sticks.

DSLRs didn't stick.

DSLT didn't stick.

NEX didn't stick

FE - does it stick?

And they have 4 (or 2) mounts to create lenses for. As an old-school A-mounter, I gave up waiting for them to make the lenses I wanted. I'd hate to be in the FE- club.... All that being said, Sony is doing what any company is doing - trying to be profitable.

Cheers!

 liquid stereo's gear list:liquid stereo's gear list
Fujifilm FinePix X100 Canon EOS 7D Fujifilm X-Pro1 Canon EF 50mm f/1.4 USM Canon EF 50mm f/1.8 II +6 more
Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
jcharding
Senior MemberPosts: 2,031Gear list
Like?
Re: I think Thom makes valid points....
In reply to EinsteinsGhost, 8 months ago

Except that those changes occurred years, if not decades apart.  Sony changes course every couple of years.

-- hide signature --
 jcharding's gear list:jcharding's gear list
Fujifilm FinePix X100 Olympus PEN E-P2 Olympus PEN E-P3 Fujifilm X-Pro1 Olympus OM-D E-M5 +10 more
Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
tomtom50
Senior MemberPosts: 2,780Gear list
Like?
Basic Point: It is all about the lenses
In reply to Geedorama, 8 months ago

It is hard to argue Hogan's point that the F and EF lens lines are the backbones of success for Canon & Nikon.

Lenses are what pros look at, and are willing to spend thousands of dollars on.

Professional use of flagship products casts a halo over the entire company, and makes the line a safe buy for the unsophisticated entry-level buyer.

It is super-difficult to get a pro to change brand, because the lens investment can be gigantic. The camera advantage has to be huge. For a while Canon AF was really better than Nikon, and Canon manged to pry pros loose for the Nikon system, but that was a rare exception.

 tomtom50's gear list:tomtom50's gear list
Sony RX100 Canon EOS M Sony Alpha NEX-3N Sony a6000
Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
tomtom50
Senior MemberPosts: 2,780Gear list
Like?
Re: Especially a Sony system
In reply to liquid stereo, 8 months ago

liquid stereo wrote:

Sony has the track record that is not enviable.

They throw many things at the wall and see what sticks.

DSLRs didn't stick.

DSLT didn't stick.

NEX didn't stick

FE - does it stick?

And they have 4 (or 2) mounts to create lenses for. As an old-school A-mounter, I gave up waiting for them to make the lenses I wanted. I'd hate to be in the FE- club.... All that being said, Sony is doing what any company is doing - trying to be profitable.

Cheers!

NEX is pretty successful. They were introduced after m43, and they have mirrorless market share close to Panasonic & Olympus combined.

Although mirrorless market share is currently static, most of the innovation is happening on the mirrorless side, and it is a good bet it will take off again as AF converges to DSLR speed.

Sony may have re-named it, but the NEX line is alive and successful, and the FE line augments APS-C NEX the same way Nikon FX augments DX.

I think the story of Sony cameras is that they try everything, and sometimes they hit and sometimes that miss, but lately the hit rate is improving (NEX, RX). Hogan's point is that they have over-extended themselves optically and that puts them at a disadvantage relative to Canon and Nikon. Certainly m43 has a broader lens line, and pros that go mirrorless seem to go m43 rather than Nex for that reason.

 tomtom50's gear list:tomtom50's gear list
Sony RX100 Canon EOS M Sony Alpha NEX-3N Sony a6000
Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
tomtom50
Senior MemberPosts: 2,780Gear list
Like?
Re: I think Thom makes valid points....
In reply to EinsteinsGhost, 8 months ago

EinsteinsGhost wrote:

This kinda reminds me of debate in automotive world from over a decade ago when DBW throttle was gaining ground and people were yearning for manual linkage. Good points were made from both sides but a decade later... DBW isn't going anywhere.

Seems like a reasonable analogy for the discussion, which has veered of Hogan's point, which is that Sony is optically over-extended and cannot be trusted to truly develop the lines they start.

But... Can Canon be trusted to truly develop the EF-M line?

And... Why can't Olympus and Panasionic be trusted to develop m43? They've done awfully well considering the G1 was introduced in October 2008.

 tomtom50's gear list:tomtom50's gear list
Sony RX100 Canon EOS M Sony Alpha NEX-3N Sony a6000
Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
EinsteinsGhost
Forum ProPosts: 11,547Gear list
Like?
Re: Basic Point: It is all about the lenses
In reply to tomtom50, 8 months ago

It is hard to argue Hogan's point that the F and EF lens lines are the backbones of success for Canon & Nikon.

Lenses are what pros look at, and are willing to spend thousands of dollars on.

Professional use of flagship products casts a halo over the entire company, and makes the line a safe buy for the unsophisticated entry-level buyer.

It is super-difficult to get a pro to change brand, because the lens investment can be gigantic. The camera advantage has to be huge. For a while Canon AF was really better than Nikon, and Canon manged to pry pros loose for the Nikon system, but that was a rare exception.

How many lenses does a pro buys? What does a pro buys? And it will be a pretty miserable market if all focus was on pros. Do pros like small sensors, or big?

 EinsteinsGhost's gear list:EinsteinsGhost's gear list
Sony Cyber-shot DSC-F828 Sony SLT-A55 Sony Alpha NEX-6 Sigma 18-250mm F3.5-6.3 DC OS HSM Sony 135mm F2.8 (T4.5) STF +12 more
Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
José B
Forum ProPosts: 17,493Gear list
Like?
Exactly, that's how you build a solid camera system with----high quality lenses!
In reply to tomtom50, 8 months ago

tomtom50 wrote:

It is hard to argue Hogan's point that the F and EF lens lines are the backbones of success for Canon & Nikon.

Lenses are what pros look at, and are willing to spend thousands of dollars on.

Professional use of flagship products casts a halo over the entire company, and makes the line a safe buy for the unsophisticated entry-level buyer.

It is super-difficult to get a pro to change brand, because the lens investment can be gigantic. The camera advantage has to be huge. For a while Canon AF was really better than Nikon, and Canon manged to pry pros loose for the Nikon system, but that was a rare exception.

And you can start with one quality lens. I would rather save up for a Zeiss lens like the 16-70/4 + entry level NEX than get the most expensive camera + average lens.

Cheers,

José

 José B's gear list:José B's gear list
Canon EOS-1D Mark III Canon EOS 5D Mark II Sony Alpha NEX-6 Sony a6000 Canon EF 35mm f/1.4L USM +10 more
Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
Helena777
Forum MemberPosts: 90Gear list
Like?
Re: Interesting read by Thom Hogan
In reply to Geedorama, 8 months ago

Geedorama wrote:

http://www.dslrbodies.com/newsviews/can-you-trust-the-camera.html

-- hide signature --

http://www.flickr.com/photos/guido_2007/
Ideally, the lens captures what the eye had in mind...but the damn thing won't listen.

Thank you for providing a really interesting link. Especially in the midst of this sea of ​​whining and complaints.

 Helena777's gear list:Helena777's gear list
Sony Alpha NEX-5 Sony Alpha NEX-3 Sony Alpha NEX-7 Samsung NX300 Sony a6000 +6 more
Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
rrccad
Senior MemberPosts: 2,992Gear list
Like?
Re: With regard to Canikon lenses…….
In reply to DFPanno, 8 months ago

DFPanno wrote:

Just an aside:

It is important to note that while Canikon has a wide array of lenses, many of them are outdated and cannot keep up with currents sensors let alone the sensor tech that may be coming down the pike.

In truth both companies may have have 5-10 lenses each that are ready for the future.

without even trying i'm up to 18 FF canon lenses.  I doubt nikon is much different.

 rrccad's gear list:rrccad's gear list
Sigma DP2 Merrill Canon EOS 5D Mark II Canon EOS 7D Canon EOS M
Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
rrccad
Senior MemberPosts: 2,992Gear list
Like?
Re: Basic Point: It is all about the lenses
In reply to tomtom50, 8 months ago

tomtom50 wrote:

It is hard to argue Hogan's point that the F and EF lens lines are the backbones of success for Canon & Nikon.

Lenses are what pros look at, and are willing to spend thousands of dollars on.

Professional use of flagship products casts a halo over the entire company, and makes the line a safe buy for the unsophisticated entry-level buyer.

It is super-difficult to get a pro to change brand, because the lens investment can be gigantic. The camera advantage has to be huge. For a while Canon AF was really better than Nikon, and Canon manged to pry pros loose for the Nikon system, but that was a rare exception.

yes . the invention of the EF mount and adding USM and IS and quickly adopting that into professional L lenses basically turned a nikon dominated professional market into canon in less than 4 years.  the competitive advantage between canon and nikon during those 4 years was vast.

however that kind of perfect storm is nearly impossible to happen now.

 rrccad's gear list:rrccad's gear list
Sigma DP2 Merrill Canon EOS 5D Mark II Canon EOS 7D Canon EOS M
Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
dennis tennis
Senior MemberPosts: 2,104
Like?
Re: If you combine Nikon and Canon then maybe 5 (max)
In reply to DFPanno, 8 months ago

DFPanno wrote:

Just an aside:

It is important to note that while Canikon has a wide array of lenses, many of them are outdated and cannot keep up with currents sensors let alone the sensor tech that may be coming down the pike.

In truth both companies may have have 5-10 lenses each that are ready for the future.

True!  True!  Only Sony knows how to make lenses.

Leica, Zeiss, Canon, Nikon, Fuji, Olympus, Pentax are all junkl lenses.

Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
rrccad
Senior MemberPosts: 2,992Gear list
Like?
Re: I think Thom makes valid points....
In reply to tomtom50, 8 months ago

tomtom50 wrote:

EinsteinsGhost wrote:

This kinda reminds me of debate in automotive world from over a decade ago when DBW throttle was gaining ground and people were yearning for manual linkage. Good points were made from both sides but a decade later... DBW isn't going anywhere.

Seems like a reasonable analogy for the discussion, which has veered of Hogan's point, which is that Sony is optically over-extended and cannot be trusted to truly develop the lines they start.

But... Can Canon be trusted to truly develop the EF-M line?

probably not .. however i'm sure they will get there. canon's survivability as a camera manufacturer isn't really depending on it however.

 rrccad's gear list:rrccad's gear list
Sigma DP2 Merrill Canon EOS 5D Mark II Canon EOS 7D Canon EOS M
Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
EinsteinsGhost
Forum ProPosts: 11,547Gear list
Like?
Re: With regard to Canikon lenses…….
In reply to rrccad, 8 months ago

DFPanno wrote:

Just an aside:

It is important to note that while Canikon has a wide array of lenses, many of them are outdated and cannot keep up with currents sensors let alone the sensor tech that may be coming down the pike.

In truth both companies may have have 5-10 lenses each that are ready for the future.

without even trying i'm up to 18 FF canon lenses.  I doubt nikon is much different.

You must also be betting on that mirror is forever or that these lenses will seamlessly transition into mirrorless bodies?

 EinsteinsGhost's gear list:EinsteinsGhost's gear list
Sony Cyber-shot DSC-F828 Sony SLT-A55 Sony Alpha NEX-6 Sigma 18-250mm F3.5-6.3 DC OS HSM Sony 135mm F2.8 (T4.5) STF +12 more
Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
rrccad
Senior MemberPosts: 2,992Gear list
Like?
Re: With regard to Canikon lenses…….
In reply to EinsteinsGhost, 8 months ago

EinsteinsGhost wrote:

DFPanno wrote:

Just an aside:

It is important to note that while Canikon has a wide array of lenses, many of them are outdated and cannot keep up with currents sensors let alone the sensor tech that may be coming down the pike.

In truth both companies may have have 5-10 lenses each that are ready for the future.

without even trying i'm up to 18 FF canon lenses. I doubt nikon is much different.

You must also be betting on that mirror is forever or that these lenses will seamlessly transition into mirrorless bodies?

canon / nikon could remove the mirror and leave the registration distance. they could even do hybrid systems where the mirror is only used in specific cases and not in others.  going mirrorless doesn't necessarily mean adopting a different mount.  while there is advantages - for a full frame sensor and professional grade lenses, the different in kit bulk is pretty trivial.  you're not going to save any room with a 300/400/500 super telephoto setup between a registration distance of 44mm and 18mm.

Right now with over 80 million F mount lenses and 100 million EF mount lenses and nearly 15 million each and every year, the EF/F mount increase their installed base over any other mount. I suspect that the odds are pretty good on the survivability of the mounts.

I'd bet on that mass far more than for instance .. FE mount?

 rrccad's gear list:rrccad's gear list
Sigma DP2 Merrill Canon EOS 5D Mark II Canon EOS 7D Canon EOS M
Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
Russell Evans
Veteran MemberPosts: 9,273
Like?
Re: Basic Point: It is all about the lenses
In reply to EinsteinsGhost, 8 months ago

I think I would rather buy new excellent lenses for a new mount for the first time, than be having to face rebuying all my lenses to get the better, much more expensive, version II or III models, like Canon and Nikon owners are having to think about in order to keep up with sensor resolution. I don't know who has the type of money to throw down a couple of grand on a lens, in a multitude of $2000 plus lenses needing to be acquired, and I also don't know who wants to carry around ten or twenty grand worth of gear, or lug around fifteen to twenty pounds on their backs? Have you noticed how large and heavy all the new Nikon and Canon lenses are getting? If I was facing that, I might be thinking I would like to try a smaller lighter setup.

Photographers with that kind of money aren't probably going to be getting younger, and probably are even a little older to begin with, so I can guess that some might try it out a lighter smaller solution, and then seeing it's not as bad as Thom makes it out to be, jump right on in. The market is diverging and that's why there isn't a clear path.

That's really what the market is going to, niches for people instead of one size fits all. It seems to me that with the low end DLSR market is becoming more eroded, by becoming more diverse, and that Canon and Nikon are the ones that are going to be in more trouble than the niche players. What niche will Canon and Nikon serve other than the 5% FF DSLR market? Can they even keep that going when they don't have a foundation of entry level owners subsidizing it and the professional market?

Most people aren't stupid and people have a lot more information at their command now as well. They aren't going to keep doing what they have always done. Things change and that is really what has Thom worried. He might not want to see it or even be able to see it intellectually, but he probably feels it like an ache on a cold day in his old bones.

Thank you
Russell

Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
rrccad
Senior MemberPosts: 2,992Gear list
Like?
Re: Basic Point: It is all about the lenses
In reply to Russell Evans, 8 months ago

Russell Evans wrote:

I think I would rather buy new excellent lenses for a new mount for the first time, than be having to face rebuying all my lenses to get the better, much more expensive, version II or III models, like Canon and Nikon owners are having to think about in order to keep up with sensor resolution. I don't know who has the type of money to throw down a couple of grand on a lens, in a multitude of $2000 plus lenses needing to be acquired, and I also don't know who wants to carry around ten or twenty grand worth of gear, or lug around fifteen to twenty pounds on their backs?

and you think FE 70-200/2.8 or super tele's are going to be much different?  the FE 24-70/4 and 70-200/4 aren't that much different than their larger registration distance cousins, and certainly not cheaper.

the resale value I'd argue is much higher with canon and nikon with their larger installed bases, making "lease cost" of lens / camera upgrades over time far cheaper.

 rrccad's gear list:rrccad's gear list
Sigma DP2 Merrill Canon EOS 5D Mark II Canon EOS 7D Canon EOS M
Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
captura
Forum ProPosts: 14,673Gear list
Like?
Re: Interesting read by Thom Hogan
In reply to GaryW, 8 months ago

GaryW wrote:

By the way, the worst problem, IMO, with using FE lenses on Nex cameras is that the "fast hybrid" AF is not supported. This would seem to me to be a serious limitation.

-- hide signature --

Gary W.

Gary, the FE55 is a fast hybrid lens.

Steve

 captura's gear list:captura's gear list
Fujifilm X10 Sony Alpha NEX-7 Samsung NX1000 NEX5R Olympus M.Zuiko Digital ED 40-150mm 1:4-5.6 R +10 more
Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
Keyboard shortcuts:
FForum MMy threads