The future for Fuji cameras

Started Dec 31, 2013 | Discussions
John Motts
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Re: The future for Fuji cameras
In reply to Graham Hill, 11 months ago

Graham Hill wrote:

It's happened before, when Fujifilm abandoned the SLR market. However, they stuck with that for 4 generations before they gave up. It is far too soon for Fujifilm to give up.

The S Pro series of DSLRs were just reworked nikon bodies and Fuji abandoned that market because Nikon were no longer making it easy for them. i don't think this is the same as abandoning manufacture of their own bodies.

I would hope sales will improve for Fuji because the flaws that were holding many buyers back are disappearing with their new models.

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57even
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Re: The future for Fuji cameras
In reply to LWS2013, 11 months ago

LWS2013 wrote:

mooshoepork wrote:

Not trying to troll...

But given the recent sales reports over at fuji rumors, does anyone else worry about the potential for Fuji to throw in the towel and abandon this venture?

Having only sold 700,000...seems really low.

I love my x100s and x-e2, but I'm worried that if they continue to not make money they'll withdraw.

It's a tough market to crack, and I hope they fair better in 2014.

Thoughts?

If Fuji drop the X sensor and use a bayer one instead then they have a future, at the moment a great camera and lens systems is being ruined by the X sensor

No. It isn't.

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shawnfb
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Re: The future for Fuji cameras
In reply to Graham Hill, 11 months ago

Graham Hill wrote:

IKB wrote:

It's not rankings that matters, it is profitability. If Fujifilm can make money, then why abandon these products?

Have you seen Fujifilm's financials? There is no profitability at all in their camera division. Nothing but losses.

Are they on track?

No, they are going backwards. Losses increased by 260% last quarter, year on year.

Only they know,

No, we do, as the documents are public.

in the meantime enjoy the products.

Absolutely.

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Malcy
----------------

I  can see how they could lose money in their camera division.. Fuji is GIVING their product away at this level of quality ... $799.00 for the incredible 23mm 1.4? What other camera company offers this level of lens at this price?? ..They need to raise prices... :)..

Happy new year

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shawn

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shawnfb
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Re: This might provide a perspective
In reply to Chris Dodkin, 11 months ago

Chris Dodkin wrote:

The generation and adoption of new technologies is not a new phenomenon, it's been going on for hundreds if not thousands of years.

There has been a great deal of study in this area, and models have been generated that help companies plan their product launches, and understand where they stand as new technologies make their way to market.

There are no guarantees, but there are well developed models which have been well proven over time.

There are two that we can review here, based on the OP:

The Hype Cycle model (used by Gartner since 1995)

The Technology Adoption Lifecycle model championed by Everett Rogers and Geoffrey Moore

The accepted model is that a new technology goes through the following three phases:

  1. Hype: Search for next big thing leads to Hype around any new technology.
  2. Struggle: Adoption of these Bleeding Edge technologies depended on the Visionaries who had the vision, energy and money to make it work.
  3. Success: Mainstream adoption required convincing the Pragmatists who needed success stories and support system around the technology.

You can simplify the two models, and see their relationships by plotting Expectation and Adoption Rate against time, on a pair of graphs.

The top graph maps the expectations over time - you may not recognize the exact terms used, but if you think about new technologies that you've seen come to market, you'll see how the cycle of expectation maps to this diagram.

The OP based on the NYT article would put us right after the peak of inflated expectation, and in the trough of disillusionment.

The lower graph shows the adoption of new technologies over time - initially you have innovators picking up the new products, sales are low because most people are not comfortable investing in bleeding edge tech, and want to see success stories in order to feel comfortable to make the investment in a new tech or system.

As sales grow you have to cross the chasm from the early adopters, to the Majority - where normal folk start to see the product as a viable option, and feel safe buying it. This is where volume of sales rises steeply, and the profitability/productivity comes.

Based on the sales numbers, we'd say that Fuji are currently trying to cross the chasm - you see them injecting the market with body+lens deals to get the adoption rate up, building momentum to try and cross the chasm and get to that mainstream (majority) adoption phase.

Companies are well aware of these models, so you could expect that Fuji have planed for this ahead of time, and have a strategy in place to reach profitable sales to the plateau of productivity.

This is the piece that is not in the public domain - we don't know the details of their strategy.

However - for us 'Early Adopters' - we at least have a perspective of why we see what we see regarding sales numbers, visible numbers of cameras in the field, special sales promotions from the manufacturer, statements about profit and loss etc etc.

Because without the bigger picture, you might be confused as to what's going on and why.

At the end of the day - new technology adoption rarely happens overnight - all of this takes a lot of time and money, and there's still no guarantee of success.

Some people are ok with that - they like being here at the bleeding/leading edge.

Some people are uncomfortable with that - you see them post here and express their discomfort with the technology, or the products progression, or the companies performance.

It's an interesting journey - should be fun to see how it all shakes out.

More detail on the Hype Cycle idea here: http://www.gartner.com/technology/research/methodologies/hype-cycle.jsp

More Detail on the Technology Adoption Cycle here: http://www.hightechstrategies.com/profiles.html

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+1 .. just what i was thinking.. :)...

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oldtimer29
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Re: The future for Fuji cameras
In reply to Maximus176, 11 months ago

While I think that the issue has been quite overworked by the forum, I would like to add a little personal perspective to the discussion. More years ago than I would prefer to remember, I had three Leica bodies and a fair number of lenses. I had a 3F and a 3G body as well as a 3M. The lenses I used were both screw on with adapters when used on the M mount as well as M mount lenses. All of this old stuff was kept and used by me up until the 80s when it just became too heavy to to carry around. I used that equipment for a very long time because it both handled well and gave such good results that there was no reason to look elsewhere. Most importantly, experience thought me how to set that equipment in most every situation I faced, without regard to light meters etc.

I feel similarly about my X1 and prime lenses. If fuji went out of business today I would feel no different about the camera and lenses I currently use. They meet my needs beautifully and their ability to continue to do that is not dependent on fuji continuing to support or  "upgrade" it's firmware. Too many are interested in being on the front edge of technology that they forget that the most important technology of the camera is the photographer herself. It takes years to learn handle your camera and lenses instinctively. Rather than looking for the newest bell and whistle, take the time to know you camera and lenses. Get to just know what your exposure is for the conditions you are facing and what the lens you have on sees from the position you are in as a matter of instinct and experience. As you are raising the camera to your eye, have the experience of knowing how to make adjustments faster than than the autofocus and to set your exposure more accurately than autoexposure can do. Learn to have fun with these lovely retro cameras. I am having a great time and look forward to living with this equipment for a long time, tho at 84, it may not be that long.

Have fun everyone and take good pictures. Remember, the most important equipment you have is the photographer. The most important up firmware you need to upgrade is that of the photographer himself, and you, not fuji, control that one.

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wyldberi
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Re: The future for Fuji cameras
In reply to mooshoepork, 11 months ago

Fuji took a bold step when it put together a team composed of 5 departments and told them they were working on a new Project X. The goal: to put together an integrated system capable of producing world class photos, in a relatively small & light weight "compact" system, that had a nostalgic, aesthetic appeal that stood out from the pack, and that came in at a moderate price point.

The Marketing department succeeded with the retro-styled X Camera design.

The Lens department hit a home run with the second round of lenses released, i.e., the 18-55mm, the 14mm, the 23mm, and now, the 56mm f-1.2.

The Electronics division did a good job with the EXR processor, and kept at it. They developed the EXR-2 processor that increased the cameras' handling, recording, and processing speed. I'm wondering what lies in store with the EXR-3 that's still being sketched on the drawing boards.

The Software Development division began building a base of super-strong Customer loyalty when they began issuing regular software updates that corrected poor performance issues and kept adding additional, usable features that pleased Fuji's Customers.

Finally, there's the Sensor division. They developed a revolutionary sensor concept that did away with the older Bayer technology. Sure they did lock the Fuji X Cameras into the APS-C sensor format. But they came up with an excellent product, and with the X Trans-2 sensor, they've taken away another tool of the gainsayers, who can no longer charge that the X Cameras are too slow; now they can only claim that the X Cameras are slower than some of the other cameras that come in at twice the weight and three times the size of the X-E2.

But the one thing we don't know is, where is technology going to go in the future. Fuji has the glass and will have more in the near future. Fuji has the form factor and design that takes photography back to the basics of Aperture, Shutter Speed, and Focal Length; things that digital cameras almost made us forget about; things that give photographers time to stop and think of things like composition -- while they're at it.

And where is the technology leading us? The biggest thing I can think of is that organic sensor development Fuji is engaged in. What's going to happen to "full frame" digital behemoths, when a new APS-C format sensor comes along with double or triple the resolution of present day pixel designs?

I think this is what lies in store for the high quality image segment of the camera market. Fuji's poised to integrate the new organic X Trans Warp sensor into its X Camera bodies. While Nikon and Canon will be left trying to explain why the public needs such a large heavy body and large heavy lenses to take pictures that don't match the quality of the smaller organic sensor cameras. OR, they'll be trying to explain why their new "full frame" organic sensors are needed in order to produce those lovely images from the 10-Gigabyte image files that take 3.2 hours to process in LightRoom 12.3.

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Chris G Hughes
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Re: The future for Fuji cameras
In reply to Graham Hill, 11 months ago

They're all over Hulu+. They run ads for the X-M1 there like crazy.

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wyldberi
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Re: The future for Fuji cameras
In reply to wyldberi, 11 months ago

wyldberi wrote:

OR, they'll be trying to explain why their new "full frame" organic sensors are needed in order to produce those lovely images from the 10-Gigabyte image files that take 3.2 hours to process in LightRoom 12.3.

That was supposed to read: 10-Terabyte image files.

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dark13star
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Re: The future for Fuji cameras
In reply to Graham Hill, 11 months ago

Graham Hill wrote:

That's exactly the problem. Fujifilm needs to get out to the masses. The enthusiasts will find the X cameras without ads.

But the masses are the ones opting for cell phone cameras over real cameras, or are you differentiating another level, like "hobbyist" that will still look for more than a cell phone?

I actually think that Fuji needs to focus on the enthusiast. The masses will either use cell phones or buy the cheapest thing they can get. They could build a strong business among enthusiasts if they have high enough margins on their products. Market share is irrelevant, but profitability is essential in the long run.

Rich

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Graham Hill
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Re: The future for Fuji cameras
In reply to tecnoworld, 11 months ago

tecnoworld wrote:

It's a very odd market the one where even eos-m sold better than fuji x, which is imo the best mirrorless system to date.

Sometimes it's just the way products are perceived. I have many friends that would buy a canon 70d over a fuji x-e2 just because they think the former is 'pro' and the latter is a step up from 'p&s'.

And, believe me, most customers think this way alas.

That's what I wrote in a previous post:  Fujifilm has to have the whole package.  They have some of the finest cameras in the market, but they have to market them and distribute them as well as, or even better, than Canon and Nikon.

It is in these last two areas that Fujifilm sadly falls down hard at.

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tecnoworld
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Re: The future for Fuji cameras
In reply to Graham Hill, 11 months ago

True. And sometimes those areas, along with wom and customers' perceptions and biases are more important than the 'real' quality of a product, to make it succesfull or not.

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tecnoworld
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Re: The future for Fuji cameras
In reply to wyldberi, 11 months ago

Consider that future 8k monitors will have a resolution of more than 30mp, so they'll be able to show 1:1 pictures from most of today's cameras.

So I wouldn't be too surprised if the next iteration of highest mp aps-c sensors is at about 30-36mp and that of ff goes all the way up to 50mp...

That's nice for cropping, anyway. And the filesize won't be too much higher than today. Say 50% more.

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a l b e r t
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Re: The future for Fuji cameras
In reply to wyldberi, 11 months ago

wyldberi wrote:

Fuji took a bold step when it put together a team composed of 5 departments and told them they were working on a new Project X. The goal: to put together an integrated system capable of producing world class photos, in a relatively small & light weight "compact" system, that had a nostalgic, aesthetic appeal that stood out from the pack, and that came in at a moderate price point.

The Marketing department succeeded with the retro-styled X Camera design.

The Lens department hit a home run with the second round of lenses released, i.e., the 18-55mm, the 14mm, the 23mm, and now, the 56mm f-1.2.

The Electronics division did a good job with the EXR processor, and kept at it. They developed the EXR-2 processor that increased the cameras' handling, recording, and processing speed. I'm wondering what lies in store with the EXR-3 that's still being sketched on the drawing boards.

The Software Development division began building a base of super-strong Customer loyalty when they began issuing regular software updates that corrected poor performance issues and kept adding additional, usable features that pleased Fuji's Customers.

Finally, there's the Sensor division. They developed a revolutionary sensor concept that did away with the older Bayer technology. Sure they did lock the Fuji X Cameras into the APS-C sensor format. But they came up with an excellent product, and with the X Trans-2 sensor, they've taken away another tool of the gainsayers, who can no longer charge that the X Cameras are too slow; now they can only claim that the X Cameras are slower than some of the other cameras that come in at twice the weight and three times the size of the X-E2.

But the one thing we don't know is, where is technology going to go in the future. Fuji has the glass and will have more in the near future. Fuji has the form factor and design that takes photography back to the basics of Aperture, Shutter Speed, and Focal Length; things that digital cameras almost made us forget about; things that give photographers time to stop and think of things like composition -- while they're at it.

And where is the technology leading us? The biggest thing I can think of is that organic sensor development Fuji is engaged in. What's going to happen to "full frame" digital behemoths, when a new APS-C format sensor comes along with double or triple the resolution of present day pixel designs?

I think this is what lies in store for the high quality image segment of the camera market. Fuji's poised to integrate the new organic X Trans Warp sensor into its X Camera bodies. While Nikon and Canon will be left trying to explain why the public needs such a large heavy body and large heavy lenses to take pictures that don't match the quality of the smaller organic sensor cameras. OR, they'll be trying to explain why their new "full frame" organic sensors are needed in order to produce those lovely images from the 10-Gigabyte image files that take 3.2 hours to process in LightRoom 12.3.

The next few years would be interesting as both Canon and Sony are working on Foveon type sensors.  It'll be the next big thing.  Sony is also working on FF sensor >50MPix resolution.  So as Fuji is about to unveil their organic CMOS sensor, Canon and Sony too are about to unveil their Foveon type sensor.  There is no doubt that Foveon type sensor will have better details and better colors.  But the Fuji sensor is likely to have better dynamic range and better high ISO performance.  If there is enough pixel density on the organic sensor, maybe details and colors will be close to identical to the Foveon type sensor.  Who knows who is going to win the race.  We're certainly in an interesting time.

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ck22
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Re: The future for Fuji cameras
In reply to a l b e r t, 11 months ago

Well, I have been a fan of Fuji. My first compact is fuji A200. Subsequently I upgraded  to S5200, f11, F30, S6500 and lastly one i owned till now is F200EXR.

Fuji colour is great but somehow it loses out to Nikon and Sony and Canon. they have very poor marketing previously.  After the f070 EXR, Fuji is practically dead. Their camera no longer has that wow factor and images  are quite sucky.

Then when Fuji is on the verge on dieing, X100 saved the day but x100 is slow.Now X-system.

I hv always wanted  a X system but not cheap. No wonder they loses money. the fuji is  bleak and i do think they wil move out soon,.

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gustabod
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Re: The future for Fuji cameras
In reply to Red G8R, 11 months ago

saw that too. It will be a shame if only the slr makers remain, this will reduce innovation overall, but most social snaps are taken with a smart phone. Oh well, there's always Leica.

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Chris Dodkin
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Re: The future for Fuji cameras
In reply to Ralph McKenzie, 11 months ago

Ralph McKenzie wrote:

Interesting you should mention the Instax. Its the only Fuji camera that receives any media coverage, in retail flyers or television advertising. You never see a Fuji advert on TV pertaining to anything other than that camera and occasionally the S8400 when its on special from a retail chain.

Otherwise Fuji advertising is no existent.

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I get more consistent hits on my Instax shots on a daily basis, than any other images - interesting to see how much traction Instax has.

I like my Mini 90 - it's a satisfying experience to have the image in your hand so quickly

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Re: The future for Fuji cameras
In reply to 57even, 11 months ago

57even wrote:

Reuters article fails to mention the fact that smaller companies have minimal penetration in the US compared to the big three. Only reasons SLRs are still dominant are:

1. Price - entry level prices for DSLRs are still low compared to mirrorless. Fuji's low cost entry level is a bid to fight off that difference.

2. Brand - most people only know Nikon and Canon in the camera market, and they push SLRs so that's what people buy.

Nothing to do with a preference for the OVF? Faster AF and something called 'tracking'? Great handling and plenty of body controls on a non-cramped body?

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John Carson
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Re: The future for Fuji cameras
In reply to Graham Hill, 11 months ago

Graham Hill wrote:

Caerolle wrote:

John Carson wrote:

Of course they abandoned the S series. The future is mirror less. Why invest millions trying to succeed in a dying market?

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john carson

Funny. I hope the future is mirrorless, but it isn't the present, which is where people are buying cameras. And wasn't the past, either, which was when they killed the S-system.

I thought John's comment was strange too. Mirrorless didn't hardly exist when Fuji abandoned their SLR customers. There was a gap of almost 4 years between the S5 and X100.

Panasonic introduced the G1 in 2008, following years of development. The future was clear then.

Of course, DSLRs continued to sell and will do so for some years. However, developing a line of cameras that may potentially compete with the market leaders requires years of investment, and then many more years of sales in order to recoup the cost of that investment. Fuji did not appear to be particularly well-placed to make inroads in the DSLR market -- it was dependent on Nikon for its bodies -- so we are talking about a very long-term campaign, which, had it succeeded, would have done so just when Fuji needed to be putting all its resources into mirrorless.

The fundamental point here is that investment is intrinsically a long-term thing. You have to position yourself for the future. Fuji has survived whereas Kodak has not because Fuji has thought long term. If they made a mistake, it was to spend too much time fiddling about in the compact camera market which had an even bleaker future than the DSLR market.

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John Carson
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Re: The future for Fuji cameras
In reply to a l b e r t, 11 months ago

a l b e r t wrote:

The next few years would be interesting as both Canon and Sony are working on Foveon type sensors. It'll be the next big thing. Sony is also working on FF sensor >50MPix resolution. So as Fuji is about to unveil their organic CMOS sensor, Canon and Sony too are about to unveil their Foveon type sensor. There is no doubt that Foveon type sensor will have better details and better colors. But the Fuji sensor is likely to have better dynamic range and better high ISO performance. If there is enough pixel density on the organic sensor, maybe details and colors will be close to identical to the Foveon type sensor. Who knows who is going to win the race. We're certainly in an interesting time.

Panasonic has also been working on a Foveon type sensor

http://www.dpreview.com/news/2013/02/04/panasonic-promises-high-sensitivity-sensors-using-micro-color-splitters

Given that Panasonic and Fuji are working on the organic sensor

http://www.dpreview.com/news/2013/06/12/Fujifilm-and-panasonic-organic-CMOS-sensor-industry-leading-dynamic-range-and-sensitivity

there is a good chance that Fuji will have access to the Panasonic technology.

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John Carson
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Re: The future for Fuji cameras
In reply to wyldberi, 11 months ago

wyldberi wrote:

And where is the technology leading us? The biggest thing I can think of is that organic sensor development Fuji is engaged in. What's going to happen to "full frame" digital behemoths, when a new APS-C format sensor comes along with double or triple the resolution of present day pixel designs?

I think this is what lies in store for the high quality image segment of the camera market. Fuji's poised to integrate the new organic X Trans Warp sensor into its X Camera bodies. While Nikon and Canon will be left trying to explain why the public needs such a large heavy body and large heavy lenses to take pictures that don't match the quality of the smaller organic sensor cameras. OR, they'll be trying to explain why their new "full frame" organic sensors are needed in order to produce those lovely images from the 10-Gigabyte image files that take 3.2 hours to process in LightRoom 12.3.

I have just been deciding between a Fuji X-E2 and a Sony A7. One of the things that made me go for the X-E2 is precisely this line of reasoning.

Sensors are going to get better more quickly than (good quality) lenses are going to get smaller. In a small number of years, the IQ case for full frame is going to be hard to make. When the sensor improvements come, I will hang on to my Fuji lenses, upgrade the body, and things should be great.

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john carson

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