Why Pentax Need a New Mount Now

Started 8 months ago | Discussions
6x9
6x9
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Re: I hear what you are saying
In reply to Bill Robb, 8 months ago

Bill Robb wrote:

6x9 wrote:

If Ricoh/Pentax do not catch the last *sans-mirror* train, they may be left with shrinking DSLR market. And the market will shrink even against users' wishes -

You are pretty much a mirrorless camera fan boy, aren't you?

Nope. I have plenty of DSLR stuff. I value *real* phase detect AF and quality viewfinders. But I like to travel light. I also want to make use of my Pentax lenses on a smaller and lighter body.

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Greg Lovern
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Re: Why Pentax Need a New Mount Now
In reply to 6x9, 8 months ago

6x9 wrote:

Currently Pentax have two mount types - K(AF3) for APS-C (and potentially for FF), and Q for a small size sensor.

There is now a clear trend towards mirrorless cameras with big sensors (APS-C, MFT), as they offer DSLR quality in compact package. Current APS-C sensor bodies are comparible in size with 1/1.7"-1/2.3" ones.

Although it is fun to use the Q series, I do not think there is real future for Pentax Q format, unless it stays as a fashion thing (see how many color options are offered for Q-series).

Q would do better with some high quality pancakes. And a macro. Also a very fast prime, if it can be fast enough to put substantial DOF on that little sensor.

I suppose a superzoom would help too.

Now we come to the K mount. Pentax K-01 was the first mirrorles with this mount. Although it has a benefit of offereing full compatibility with K-mount lenses (which is great), this camera is clearly off the mainstream as it does not offer similar compact body as competitors. Now K-mount becomes a clear limitation for mirrorless design, and needs to be "upgraded" to fit mirrorless path.

Ideally, this new mount should be suitable for FF. It would probably need to be a bit larger, to make sure that it is suitable for in-body stabilization.

The faster Pentax takes this decision to move to a new mount, the better (but still preserving compatibility with older lenses via a special adaptor).

If they can make a fully compatible adapter, and sell it for less than, say, US$300, I think the user base will be generally happy and supportive overall.

Sony and Nikon have both been unable so far to put full compatibility in their mirrorless adapters. It would be interesting to hear why it's so hard to make them fully compatible.

Greg

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kuuan
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Re: Why Pentax Need a New Mount Now
In reply to 6x9, 8 months ago

right, mirrorless with short register distance and the small lenses such a system allows for. Ricoh / Pentax should focus on handling and nothing else, no limitations because of design, e.g.instead of the classic looking EVF housing of the Sony A7 put an articulating, extendable EVF.

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KL Matt
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Be careful what you wish for
In reply to 6x9, 8 months ago

Ideally, this new mount should be suitable for FF. It would probably need to be a bit larger, to make sure that it is suitable for in-body stabilization.

The faster Pentax takes this decision to move to a new mount, the better (but still preserving compatibility with older lenses via a special adaptor).

Here's a little peak at how Sony is doing so far with the exact strategy you have outlined:

http://www.dpreview.com/forums/post/52516439

Matt

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Joe Ogiba
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Re: Be careful what you wish for
In reply to KL Matt, 8 months ago

KL Matt wrote:

Ideally, this new mount should be suitable for FF. It would probably need to be a bit larger, to make sure that it is suitable for in-body stabilization.

The faster Pentax takes this decision to move to a new mount, the better (but still preserving compatibility with older lenses via a special adaptor).

Here's a little peak at how Sony is doing so far with the exact strategy you have outlined:

http://www.dpreview.com/forums/post/52516439

Matt

That is a reply by an A mount (Minolta) user. The Sony E mount works with 200 million lenses and the new full frame A7 and A7r are selling at a much better rate than Sony expected.

http://www.sonyalpharumors.com/from-source-sony-a7-a7r-preorders-200-more-than-expected-from-sony-sony-a7r-review-at-cameralabs/

"FS series camera’s E-mount is designed to accept virtually all 35mm SLR, DSLR and cinematography lenses, with the use of simple, inexpensive third party adapters sold separately -without optical degradation-. FS series camera owners are able to continue to use their existing 35mm lenses and add more lenses without being limited to a particular lens brand or mount type. "

http://pro.sony.com/bbsc/ssr/product-NEXFS700UK/

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azCxcXa9FDM

http://www.sonyalpharumors.com/first-video-shows-a7r-autofocusing-with-contax-g-lens-via-techart-adapter-2/

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Russell Evans
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Re: I hear what you are saying
In reply to 6x9, 8 months ago

6x9 wrote:

Bill Robb wrote:

6x9 wrote:

If Ricoh/Pentax do not catch the last *sans-mirror* train, they may be left with shrinking DSLR market. And the market will shrink even against users' wishes -

You are pretty much a mirrorless camera fan boy, aren't you?

Nope. I have plenty of DSLR stuff. I value *real* phase detect AF and quality viewfinders. But I like to travel light. I also want to make use of my Pentax lenses on a smaller and lighter body.

Every time I do a like for like comparison between a Pentax setup and a mirrorless setup, the difference in weight comes out to a half a pound to a pound in difference. There not enough gain in that for me to be wanting to give up what I have with a DSLR.

I do own a Nex setup, but I bought into this for the things I couldn't do within my budget with a Pentax DSLR. A 40M underwater case for a Nex can be had for US $120-220 depending on the model. A tilt adapter that adapts a FF Pentax lens to Nex is around US $55. A focal reducer that removes almost all the crop from a FF lens on APS-C is $120. Focus peaking for macros, although with the newer bodies now having focus peaking this is less an issue. A 12mm f2.8 for the Nex cost me about $250. You can now put this together for about $190.

It's not about size or weight between the systems, it's just about extending capabilities by having both.

Thank you
Russell

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KL Matt
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Re: Be careful what you wish for
In reply to Joe Ogiba, 8 months ago

Joe Ogiba wrote:

Now *that* is one *rare* lens! The Pentax-L 43mm 1.9 Limited! I think they produced three of those!

That is a reply by an A mount (Minolta) user.

Correct. The equivalent of a K-mount (Pentax, not Ricoh) user. Remember, the K-mount is why Ricoh just bought Pentax in the first place.

The Sony E mount works with 200 million lenses and the new full frame A7 and A7r are selling at a much better rate than Sony expected.

http://www.sonyalpharumors.com/from-source-sony-a7-a7r-preorders-200-more-than-expected-from-sony-sony-a7r-review-at-cameralabs/

Well I suppose a "rumors" site *is* a definitive source. I mean, they've written it on the internet, surely it's correct.

Matt

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petreluk
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Re: Be careful what you wish for
In reply to KL Matt, 8 months ago

If - it's a very big if - the market moves decisively away from the classic DSLR in favour of smaller cameras with an EVF rather than an OVF but still with big sensors, then it's quite hard to see how Ricoh can avoid introducing a new mount. It's pretty simple, isn't it? Yes, some folks will holler and shout, but it's a business decision. Ricoh (and any other camera company in the same situation) will have to decide whether there's more to gain or to lose. Some customers will leave either way, but which way gains more custom and above all more profit in the longer run?

Of course, if the "if" never happens, then Ricoh can continue to produce top-quality DSLRs under the Pentax brand whether FF or APS-C and never have to worry.

In the medium term, Ricoh also have the option of winding down the Q, since smartphones are starting to encroach on its territory, in favour of compacts with a fixed lens and a much bigger sensor. That would reduce the number of mounts they have to support by 25 per cent. The days of the Q are surely numbered anyway.

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marike6
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Instead of wasting resources on a new mount and ILC, how about that FF DSLR
In reply to 6x9, 8 months ago

Instead of wasting resources on a new mount and trendy mirrorless cameras, I'm quite sure that the many if not most Pentax users would prefer to see a FF DSLR along with a commitment to bring back some of their excellent FF glass that they have discontinued.  SMC-FA lenses such as the SMC-FA 24 f/2 AL, SMC-FA 85 f/1.4 IF, FA 200 f/2.8, FA 200 f4 Macro, FA 300 f/4.5 and f2.8, FA 400 f/5.6, et al.

As standard zoom, a 70-200 f/2.8 and f4, an UWA zoom, a updated FA 50 f/1.4. That's what Pentax users have been hoping for.

As it is now, if or more likely when they release a FF DSLR, the number of FF K-mount lenses is extremely small. You basically have the 31 f/1.8, 43 f/1.9 and 77 f/1.8 Limiteds, the FA 35 f/2 and 50 f/1.4 and the 50 and 100 f/2.8 Macro lenses.  And of course the new DA 560 f/5.6 for a grand total of eight lenses.  No wides, no zooms of any kind, only 3 Limiteds, two normal, two macro and one $7000 super telephoto.

So the lens upgrade path for APS-C DSLR users, the majority of Pentax users, is dicey at best.  And for K-3 users, there are some fairly sizable holes in the APS-C lens lineup. For example they cannot keep releasing excellent bodies like the K-3 and kitting it with the 18-135. Such a lens that on 16 mp wasn't cutting it, just doesn't make sense at all on the 24 mp K-3.  It puts the camera in a bad light and it needs to bet updated or discontinued.

And Pentax needs to add SDM to a whole bunch of lenses which are still screw driver lenses with no AF motors at all.   This is 2013, it's time for some AF motors like the rest of the market.  Some people may want whiz bang mirrorless Pentax cameras that appeal to small numbers of amateurs and enthusiast.  I'm guessing that like me, most Pentax users would like to see them modernize their existing lens lineup a bit before going off half cocked with a new mount and a mirrorless camera.

So since Ricoh/Pentax don't have huge financial resources like some other camera makers, instead of messing around with new Pentax mounts, and niche mirrorless cameras, personally I'd much rather have them focus on getting the whole of the K-mount lens lineup competitive with Canikon once again.  And most importantly, building the FF DSLR that loyal Pentax users deserve.

All the best, Markus

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solarider
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Pentax mirrorless, already have that choice, and it's free
In reply to Bill Robb, 8 months ago

Mirrorless is already included with Pentax dslrs.

JPTMUS*

*JustPutTheMirrorUpStupid setting in every new Pentax Dslr - right out of the box. It's in the manual.

They should have charged extra for that mirrorless already in a dslr setting.

Damn and I'm already underpaid for the free to pentax ideas department.

Bill Robb wrote:

Gary Martin wrote:

New mount = bye bye from me.

Mirrorless means the same thing from me. They need to improve by a huge margin before they are usable.

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Dennis
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Re: Why Pentax Need a New Mount Now
In reply to 6x9, 8 months ago

6x9 wrote:

There is now a clear trend towards mirrorless cameras with big sensors (APS-C, MFT), as they offer DSLR quality in compact package.

I'm not sure that there's a "clear trend".  A few manufacturers have tried it; notably manufacturers who either had no legacy system or who were having trouble competing with Nikon & Canon with what they had.  (I suppose you could argue that Pentax fits in that bucket along with Sony, but maybe Pentax is less concerned with growing market share than Sony).  The systems were created, they grew, and they sit.  Whether they grow more is questionable.

Current APS-C sensor bodies are comparible in size with 1/1.7"-1/2.3" ones.
>> having a hard time getting "quote" to work right ... anyway, those APS-C sensor bodies that are that compact lack EVFs and are of limited use because of that.
Now we come to the K mount. Pentax K-01 was the first mirrorles with this mount. Although it has a benefit of offereing full compatibility with K-mount lenses (which is great), this camera is clearly off the mainstream as it does not offer similar compact body as competitors.
>> It was clearly off the mainstream, but not because of lack of compactness !  The Canon Rebel SL1 shows what can be done without even abandoning the mirror - it's a bit taller than the K01 due to the VF and a bit deeper due to the grip and the VF eyepiece, but basically a similarly sized camera without the ... unique ... design.  There's room to go smaller without a new lens mount. 

The faster Pentax takes this decision to move to a new mount, the better (but still preserving compatibility with older lenses via a special adaptor).

Then all you do is introduce one more camera into the mirrorless market ... that's a lot of r&d for questionable returns.

- Dennis

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WD
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Re: Instead of wasting resources on a new mount and ILC, how about that FF DSLR
In reply to marike6, 8 months ago

marike6 wrote:

Instead of wasting resources on a new mount and trendy mirrorless cameras, I'm quite sure that the many if not most Pentax users would prefer to see a FF DSLR along with a commitment to bring back some of their excellent FF glass that they have discontinued. SMC-FA lenses such as the SMC-FA 24 f/2 AL, SMC-FA 85 f/1.4 IF, FA 200 f/2.8, FA 200 f4 Macro, FA 300 f/4.5 and f2.8, FA 400 f/5.6, et al.

As standard zoom, a 70-200 f/2.8 and f4, an UWA zoom, a updated FA 50 f/1.4. That's what Pentax users have been hoping for.

As it is now, if or more likely when they release a FF DSLR, the number of FF K-mount lenses is extremely small. You basically have the 31 f/1.8, 43 f/1.9 and 77 f/1.8 Limiteds, the FA 35 f/2 and 50 f/1.4 and the 50 and 100 f/2.8 Macro lenses. And of course the new DA 560 f/5.6 for a grand total of eight lenses. No wides, no zooms of any kind, only 3 Limiteds, two normal, two macro and one $7000 super telephoto.

So the lens upgrade path for APS-C DSLR users, the majority of Pentax users, is dicey at best. And for K-3 users, there are some fairly sizable holes in the APS-C lens lineup. For example they cannot keep releasing excellent bodies like the K-3 and kitting it with the 18-135. Such a lens that on 16 mp wasn't cutting it, just doesn't make sense at all on the 24 mp K-3. It puts the camera in a bad light and it needs to bet updated or discontinued.

And Pentax needs to add SDM to a whole bunch of lenses which are still screw driver lenses with no AF motors at all. This is 2013, it's time for some AF motors like the rest of the market. Some people may want whiz bang mirrorless Pentax cameras that appeal to small numbers of amateurs and enthusiast. I'm guessing that like me, most Pentax users would like to see them modernize their existing lens lineup a bit before going off half cocked with a new mount and a mirrorless camera.

So since Ricoh/Pentax don't have huge financial resources like some other camera makers, instead of messing around with new Pentax mounts, and niche mirrorless cameras, personally I'd much rather have them focus on getting the whole of the K-mount lens lineup competitive with Canikon once again. And most importantly, building the FF DSLR that loyal Pentax users deserve.

All the best, Markus

An FX Pentax DSLR would make you very happy, but it would appear to be a financial disaster for Ricoh/Pentax.

The percentage of Canikon owners who bought into FX is small compared to DX.  Only 500,000 D800 sold in @18mo. (according to Thom Hogan).  Current projections for annual DSLR Nikon sales are 4,500,000.  Estimates of the FX market are generally between 12%-15% of DSLR sales on the high side.

Pro shooters won't give up their Canikon systems to switch.  Too much invested and the system is so much more mature.

Some Canikon enthusiasts might switch.  However, these users are generally heavily invested in lenses etc., so the number might be very small.  Realistically, this leaves current Pentax owners who upgrade as a predictable market.  Will enough current Pentax owners upgrade to produce a positive return for Pentax?

Considering everything, is an FX Pentax likely on Ricoh's radar.  I'm afraid you have better odds winning the lottery than buying an FX Pentax.  Of course, it's only my opinion.

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paulkienitz
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Re: Or Ricoh mount?
In reply to Unexpresivecanvas, 8 months ago

Unexpresivecanvas wrote:

anthony mazzeri wrote:

audi obomber wrote:

6x9 wrote:

Currently Pentax have two mount types - K(AF3) for APS-C (and potentially for FF), and Q for a small size sensor.

Three mounts. You forgot the 645D.

TFour mounts. You forgot the GXR M-mount.

Ricoh I believe is the only company to cover four mount categories - mirrorless, rangefinder, SLR and medium format. Adding a whole new larger-sensor mirrorless mount will bring it up to five in total, so if one has to go by the wayside to avoid spreading their resources too thinly, the obvious choice would be the M-mount.

But maybe they won't have to make that choice. One advantage of the M-mount is it has a plethora of top quality rangefinder lenses already available for it, yet is actually patent-free so one idea which I've seen mentioned many times is Ricoh simply adding their own proprietary AF system to it so all those rangefinder lenses will still work natively on it as per the GXR-M, plus then also any new mirrorless AF lenses they develop for it.

5 mounts if you include takumar m42...

Why not count the M37 mount of the original Asahiflex, which makes six.

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Alex Sarbu
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Re: Or Ricoh mount?
In reply to paulkienitz, 8 months ago

paulkienitz wrote:

Unexpresivecanvas wrote:

anthony mazzeri wrote:

audi obomber wrote:

6x9 wrote:

Currently Pentax have two mount types - K(AF3) for APS-C (and potentially for FF), and Q for a small size sensor.

Three mounts. You forgot the 645D.

TFour mounts. You forgot the GXR M-mount.

Ricoh I believe is the only company to cover four mount categories - mirrorless, rangefinder, SLR and medium format. Adding a whole new larger-sensor mirrorless mount will bring it up to five in total, so if one has to go by the wayside to avoid spreading their resources too thinly, the obvious choice would be the M-mount.

But maybe they won't have to make that choice. One advantage of the M-mount is it has a plethora of top quality rangefinder lenses already available for it, yet is actually patent-free so one idea which I've seen mentioned many times is Ricoh simply adding their own proprietary AF system to it so all those rangefinder lenses will still work natively on it as per the GXR-M, plus then also any new mirrorless AF lenses they develop for it.

5 mounts if you include takumar m42...

Why not count the M37 mount of the original Asahiflex, which makes six.

And the 6x7. And the Auto110.

But only "active" mounts which they own should be counted, IMO (leaving the GXR-M out, since a module is all they did for it - in contrast with a full system with cameras and lenses)

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Ben O Connor
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Question to the person, who....
In reply to Dennis, 8 months ago

Question to the person, who wants a new mouth from pentax.

"Dude, Why the pentax need another mouth ? "

'

Since They have introdueced the Gray K-3 body only with a beautifull brown leather, and 4 preety shinng gray HD coated lenses, and To buy all these would costs about 3.000 € only (In Most Europe)... Why would they really need another mouth?

(Personally) All I need is money, or my wife´s support to own it. I love her, and unfortunately she could not see a difference between my Olympus XZ-1 and Olympus E-PM1 and still making some sentences, such as ;

My dear !!! (She means God, not me!! ) You already have a camrea why did you buy another ?!

SO lets be realistic and serious; They did a great job. I believe Nikon and Canon feels a lot worried after Pentax´s offer after D7100 & 70D... They must be good ones no wonder. But I would go for Pentax all the way for their just so good to look at OVF, proven sealed body, stunning low light & long shutter images... and many more. And top of that, It looks so beautifull (The gray variant, with battery grip!)

Man... I wish to won lottery this weekend.

Ben

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Alex Sarbu
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Re: Instead of wasting resources on a new mount and ILC, how about that FF DSLR
In reply to WD, 8 months ago

WD wrote:

marike6 wrote:

Instead of wasting resources on a new mount and trendy mirrorless cameras, I'm quite sure that the many if not most Pentax users would prefer to see a FF DSLR along with a commitment to bring back some of their excellent FF glass that they have discontinued. SMC-FA lenses such as the SMC-FA 24 f/2 AL, SMC-FA 85 f/1.4 IF, FA 200 f/2.8, FA 200 f4 Macro, FA 300 f/4.5 and f2.8, FA 400 f/5.6, et al.

As standard zoom, a 70-200 f/2.8 and f4, an UWA zoom, a updated FA 50 f/1.4. That's what Pentax users have been hoping for.

As it is now, if or more likely when they release a FF DSLR, the number of FF K-mount lenses is extremely small. You basically have the 31 f/1.8, 43 f/1.9 and 77 f/1.8 Limiteds, the FA 35 f/2 and 50 f/1.4 and the 50 and 100 f/2.8 Macro lenses. And of course the new DA 560 f/5.6 for a grand total of eight lenses. No wides, no zooms of any kind, only 3 Limiteds, two normal, two macro and one $7000 super telephoto.

So the lens upgrade path for APS-C DSLR users, the majority of Pentax users, is dicey at best. And for K-3 users, there are some fairly sizable holes in the APS-C lens lineup. For example they cannot keep releasing excellent bodies like the K-3 and kitting it with the 18-135. Such a lens that on 16 mp wasn't cutting it, just doesn't make sense at all on the 24 mp K-3. It puts the camera in a bad light and it needs to bet updated or discontinued.

And Pentax needs to add SDM to a whole bunch of lenses which are still screw driver lenses with no AF motors at all. This is 2013, it's time for some AF motors like the rest of the market. Some people may want whiz bang mirrorless Pentax cameras that appeal to small numbers of amateurs and enthusiast. I'm guessing that like me, most Pentax users would like to see them modernize their existing lens lineup a bit before going off half cocked with a new mount and a mirrorless camera.

So since Ricoh/Pentax don't have huge financial resources like some other camera makers, instead of messing around with new Pentax mounts, and niche mirrorless cameras, personally I'd much rather have them focus on getting the whole of the K-mount lens lineup competitive with Canikon once again. And most importantly, building the FF DSLR that loyal Pentax users deserve.

All the best, Markus

An FX Pentax DSLR would make you very happy, but it would appear to be a financial disaster for Ricoh/Pentax.

That's far from being a given.

Pentax can do it smart; they know how to make low volume cameras by sharing components with APS-C (i.e. the 645D). They could split R&D between 3 formats, so the body is not a problem.

The real problem are the lenses; but even this is not hopeless: many FF lenses would also be bought by APS-C users.

The percentage of Canikon owners who bought into FX is small compared to DX. Only 500,000 D800 sold in @18mo. (according to Thom Hogan). Current projections for annual DSLR Nikon sales are 4,500,000. Estimates of the FX market are generally between 12%-15% of DSLR sales on the high side.

Pro shooters won't give up their Canikon systems to switch. Too much invested and the system is so much more mature.

Targeting the small format pro market is not possible at the moment, however Pentax can/should/will go for the enthusiast FF market, i.e. below $3000.

Some Canikon enthusiasts might switch. However, these users are generally heavily invested in lenses etc., so the number might be very small. Realistically, this leaves current Pentax owners who upgrade as a predictable market. Will enough current Pentax owners upgrade to produce a positive return for Pentax?

It's possible, and I'd say mandatory on the intermediate term.

The alternative is to lose Pentax owners who want to "upgrade" from APS-C. Those are people willing to spend serious money, so it's a good idea to keep them.

Considering everything, is an FX Pentax likely on Ricoh's radar. I'm afraid you have better odds winning the lottery than buying an FX Pentax. Of course, it's only my opinion.

About an year ago, Pentax' Head of Business Development said they're working on a full frame SLR. Under Hoya, all we heard was that it's not a priority, maybe later - things like that.

Just sayin'.

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Alex

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marike6
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Wasting time and $$ on an MILC won't help them remain one of the "Big Four"
In reply to WD, 8 months ago

WD wrote:

marike6 wrote:

Instead of wasting resources on a new mount and trendy mirrorless cameras, I'm quite sure that the many if not most Pentax users would prefer to see a FF DSLR along with a commitment to bring back some of their excellent FF glass that they have discontinued. SMC-FA lenses such as the SMC-FA 24 f/2 AL, SMC-FA 85 f/1.4 IF, FA 200 f/2.8, FA 200 f4 Macro, FA 300 f/4.5 and f2.8, FA 400 f/5.6, et al.

As standard zoom, a 70-200 f/2.8 and f4, an UWA zoom, a updated FA 50 f/1.4. That's what Pentax users have been hoping for.

As it is now, if or more likely when they release a FF DSLR, the number of FF K-mount lenses is extremely small. You basically have the 31 f/1.8, 43 f/1.9 and 77 f/1.8 Limiteds, the FA 35 f/2 and 50 f/1.4 and the 50 and 100 f/2.8 Macro lenses. And of course the new DA 560 f/5.6 for a grand total of eight lenses. No wides, no zooms of any kind, only 3 Limiteds, two normal, two macro and one $7000 super telephoto.

So the lens upgrade path for APS-C DSLR users, the majority of Pentax users, is dicey at best. And for K-3 users, there are some fairly sizable holes in the APS-C lens lineup. For example they cannot keep releasing excellent bodies like the K-3 and kitting it with the 18-135. Such a lens that on 16 mp wasn't cutting it, just doesn't make sense at all on the 24 mp K-3. It puts the camera in a bad light and it needs to bet updated or discontinued.

And Pentax needs to add SDM to a whole bunch of lenses which are still screw driver lenses with no AF motors at all. This is 2013, it's time for some AF motors like the rest of the market. Some people may want whiz bang mirrorless Pentax cameras that appeal to small numbers of amateurs and enthusiast. I'm guessing that like me, most Pentax users would like to see them modernize their existing lens lineup a bit before going off half cocked with a new mount and a mirrorless camera.

So since Ricoh/Pentax don't have huge financial resources like some other camera makers, instead of messing around with new Pentax mounts, and niche mirrorless cameras, personally I'd much rather have them focus on getting the whole of the K-mount lens lineup competitive with Canikon once again. And most importantly, building the FF DSLR that loyal Pentax users deserve.

All the best, Markus

An FX Pentax DSLR would make you very happy, but it would appear to be a financial disaster for Ricoh/Pentax.

The percentage of Canikon owners who bought into FX is small compared to DX. Only 500,000 D800 sold in @18mo. (according to Thom Hogan). Current projections for annual DSLR Nikon sales are 4,500,000. Estimates of the FX market are generally between 12%-15% of DSLR sales on the high side.

Pro shooters won't give up their Canikon systems to switch. Too much invested and the system is so much more mature.

Some Canikon enthusiasts might switch. However, these users are generally heavily invested in lenses etc., so the number might be very small. Realistically, this leaves current Pentax owners who upgrade as a predictable market. Will enough current Pentax owners upgrade to produce a positive return for Pentax?

Considering everything, is an FX Pentax likely on Ricoh's radar. I'm afraid you have better odds winning the lottery than buying an FX Pentax. Of course, it's only my opinion.

The D800 is a $3000 camera.  When FF prices come down, and they have been, more people will buy them.  It's simple economics.  And if Pentax doesn't get on board the FF DSLR train they will be left behind.

But yeah, I don't read Thom Hogan and when people quote his sales numbers his rants or about Nikon I generally take them with a grain of salt since almost everything he currently writes about Nikon has a bit of anger based on some kind of feud that he is currently having with them. Somewhere along the way, someone at Nikon did something to tick Hogan off, and he's been carrying a huge chip on his shoulder ever since. So almost everything he blogs about Nikon is meant to marginalize and embarrass them. That's just the way it is, and that's the number one reason why few Nikon users take him seriously anymore.

But if the chances of Pentax users upgrading to an FF Pentax camera with IQ of a D600 for example, but with the build of a K-3 are low, then the odds of Pentax users buying a Pentax mirrorless are next to none.

What is the point? Trading a beautiful, bright optical VF for a lousy EVF, poor contrast detect AF and two or three focus-by-wire lenses? More people would leave Pentax in droves would buy a hypothetical Pentax mirrorless.

By the way, if you think I'm the only one interested in a Pentax FF, then clearly you haven't been paying attention. Pentax users have been asking for a FF DSLR body for years. Do you know how many people, myself included, have left Pentax because of their insistence on sticking with mid level and prosumer APS-C DSLRs? The number is huge.

The ONLY way for Pentax to remain as one of the big four (Canon, Nikon, Sony/Minolta, Pentax) is to finally grow a pair and release a FF. It makes zero sense that they make a high end Medium Format 645D, and no FF. And now people here are actually talking about a MILC? Has this forum lost its mind? What a waste of a great camera company.

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moving_comfort
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FF makes sense
In reply to WD, 8 months ago

WD wrote:

marike6 wrote:

An FX Pentax DSLR would make you very happy, but it would appear to be a financial disaster for Ricoh/Pentax.

The percentage of Canikon owners who bought into FX is small compared to DX. Only 500,000 D800 sold in @18mo. (according to Thom Hogan). Current projections for annual DSLR Nikon sales are 4,500,000. Estimates of the FX market are generally between 12%-15% of DSLR sales on the high side.

This is not a small amount.  Considering body sales alone and per-unit profit, that probably represents between $250 million USD and $500 million profit for Nikon, to be put toward ROI or just bank, in 18 months.  That doesn't include the margins on the lenses and peripherals that could go with each body sale.

If Pentax could do 1/10 of that - and up a tier from aps-c they might even be able to do a higher percentage - they could see $25 to $50 million profit on a body alone over that timeframe.  We'd assume it's an ROI that would make sense, as they already have the infrastructure built from their aps-c lines and they will share a lot of components, software, etc.

Pro shooters won't give up their Canikon systems to switch. Too much invested and the system is so much more mature.

Don't need to, 'pro' is actually a small % of the overall FF market.

Some Canikon enthusiasts might switch. However, these users are generally heavily invested in lenses etc., so the number might be very small. Realistically, this leaves current Pentax owners who upgrade as a predictable market. Will enough current Pentax owners upgrade to produce a positive return for Pentax?

It's also going to include a percentage of upgraders from mounts that don't currently offer FF, not just Pentax shooters.

Considering everything, is an FX Pentax likely on Ricoh's radar. I'm afraid you have better odds winning the lottery than buying an FX Pentax. Of course, it's only my opinion.

It absolutely is on their radar, we've had spoke-persons say so.  We just don't know if it's right off the bow or if it's still out on the horizon

.

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rwl408
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Re: Or Ricoh mount?
In reply to Alex Sarbu, 8 months ago

How about Ricoh's PK mount?

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Alex Sarbu
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Re: Or Ricoh mount?
In reply to rwl408, 8 months ago

rwl408 wrote:

How about Ricoh's PK mount?

That was a variation of the K-mount. If we're counting it, we would have to count each successive variation of each mount.

Alex

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