DSLR future prediction by EOSHD from Andrew Reid

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stan_pustylnik
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DSLR future prediction by EOSHD from Andrew Reid
10 months ago

So far I found this article most interesting for DSLR predictions.

http://www.eoshd.com/content/11409/consumer-dslrs-dead-5-years

as for me, I keep using A850 with A-mount lenses for now.

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Person is taking photos, not camera. When photograph is bad, it's because photographer doesn't know how to choose settings optimal to "own preferences". Then blames camera for bad IQ.
This is same as blaming car about arriving to wrong destination.
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stan_pustylnik
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Re: DSLR future prediction by EOSHD from Andrew Reid
In reply to stan_pustylnik, 9 months ago

For people who are stuck with large lenses they own already - DSLR is their future. However for people who start fresh - mirror-less is very appealing, because of compact size/weight in combination with good IQ.

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Person is taking photos, not camera. When photograph is bad, it's because photographer doesn't know how to choose settings optimal to "own preferences". Then blames camera for bad IQ.
This is same as blaming car about arriving to wrong destination.
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Promit
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Re: DSLR future prediction by EOSHD from Andrew Reid
In reply to stan_pustylnik, 9 months ago

stan_pustylnik wrote:

For people who are stuck with large lenses they own already - DSLR is their future. However for people who start fresh - mirror-less is very appealing, because of compact size/weight in combination with good IQ.

The big advantage of mirrorless isn't weight/size. That's become a surrogate advantage because it's much easier as a selling point, especially on the smaller chip m4/3 cameras. The point many are trying to make is that mirrorless cameras are technically superior -- in the long term, not right now. It always seem to catch DSLR people off guard that many of us would buy mirrorless EVEN IF size and price were no object.

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Re: DSLR future prediction by EOSHD from Andrew Reid
In reply to Promit, 9 months ago

Promit wrote:

stan_pustylnik wrote:

For people who are stuck with large lenses they own already - DSLR is their future. However for people who start fresh - mirror-less is very appealing, because of compact size/weight in combination with good IQ.

The big advantage of mirrorless isn't weight/size. That's become a surrogate advantage because it's much easier as a selling point, especially on the smaller chip m4/3 cameras. The point many are trying to make is that mirrorless cameras are technically superior -- in the long term, not right now. It always seem to catch DSLR people off guard that many of us would buy mirrorless EVEN IF size and price were no object.

Technically superior in what way?  They have EVFs with the same resolution as a pentaprism viewfinder?  They focus as fast or faster?  They have the lens and accessory support of cameras with mirrors?  If you enjoy your camera then that is really wonderful.  If you think you chose the technically superior technology then I'm afraid your standards are not the same as every other person on the planet.  I have yet to see a technically superior camera that will take over the world.

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Ahender
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Re: DSLR future prediction by EOSHD from Andrew Reid
In reply to howardroark, 9 months ago

I think I can predict where this thread is heading...

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jkoch2
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Mr. EOSHD Reid & All Consumer Cameras (not just DSLRs)
In reply to stan_pustylnik, 9 months ago

stan_pustylnik wrote:

So far I found this article most interesting for DSLR predictions.

http://www.eoshd.com/content/11409/consumer-dslrs-dead-5-years

A. Reid forecasts the demise of all budget system cameras (DSLR or mirrorless), as the quality of smartphone cameras rises and as enthusiasts cease to see need to upgrade.  This goes beyond the observation that the P&S market is essentially near rigor mortis.

He is quite realistic about the fact that most people have no need whatever for a dedicated camera, if they can document their social or ceremonial experiences quite nicely with an all-round tool that fits in their pockets and always with them.

He thinks this is "good news" if it forces the surviving camera makers to focus on innovation for the high end niche.  For him this means putting a RED into a $2,500 full-frame camera, compatible with assorted cinema lenses.  He wants cameras that capture uncompressed 4k or 8k video at hyper bitrates.  If on-board flash memory is not enough, then enthusiasts can lug arround separate recording devices.

The goal: high grade music videos that win Zacuto (but not Sundance or even YouTube) type competitions, or which connoiseurs will spend hours to download in 250 mbps formats to see in RAW splendor at 24fps on large screens.  Very fine.

However, there is a certain unreality about this:

  1. Even Reid acknowledges that the vast public doesn't care a great deal about IQ and is happy to see sub-DVD resolution on screens revved up to 240 hz with ugly enhancements.
  2. RAW formats require massive memory and heaps of rendering time, which won't pay-off after compression to formats most viewers will actually use when viewing on their phone screens.
  3. Commercial clients won't pay extra for RAW 1080p or 4k, but might eventually demand it when it costs them nothing extra
  4. Absent the revenue support from consumer sales, the prices of enthusiast or small-pro stuff will have to rise.
  5. Canon and Nikon must still honor their still-photo roots and clientele, of which a quotient hates the intrusion of video worse than gallstone pain.
  6. Canon, Sony, and Panasonic don't want to ruin their dedicated camcorder franchises entirely.
  7. FF sensors are prone to moiré and FF gear is too bulky or difficult to focus for action or non-staged video.

Any video-oriented person probably stands to gain more from improved stabilization devices, audio capture, or editing techniques, than from ploughing money into stuff whose marginal refinements are not perceptible or of importance to most viewers.  "Superior low light performance" still looks "dark, yuck" to the ordinary eye.

But if, in 2015, an RX10ii with 4k video sells for under $1,200, hmmm....

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Promit
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Re: DSLR future prediction by EOSHD from Andrew Reid
In reply to howardroark, 9 months ago

howardroark wrote:

Technically superior in what way? They have EVFs with the same resolution as a pentaprism viewfinder? They focus as fast or faster? They have the lens and accessory support of cameras with mirrors? If you enjoy your camera then that is really wonderful. If you think you chose the technically superior technology then I'm afraid your standards are not the same as every other person on the planet. I have yet to see a technically superior camera that will take over the world.

And this is precisely what I'm talking about. You're seeing the current state of technology, which has a fair share of disadvantages compared to traditional DSLRs. You're unable to see where things are going and what problems simply won't exist given sufficient time. EVF resolution/DR? Focus speed? These are strictly temporary issues.

That aside, technical superiority is not an absolute but exists in relation to what you actually use a camera for. Like Andrew Reid I have a strong interest in video work. On that particular front, only a few DSLRs are even credible and even then they usually need to be rigged with monitors/viewfinders etc to really be usable. Or I can just grab a GH3 or A77 and immediately have everything right there. For that matter, high performance live view focusing is something I rely on heavily, as I take a lot of shots where I simply cannot place my eye against the camera (or even see a non articulated screen, actually). There's exactly one traditional DSLR that can handle that problem (70D) and it manages it by temporarily converting into a second rate mirrorless camera.

If, on the other hand, my photography involved tethered studio shooting or wildlife through 400mm megalenses, mirrorless would clearly be a far inferior solution. In that case the DSLR is technically superior. (For now.) So I don't consider technical superiority to be an absolute. DSLRs CANNOT do the type of work I do, and I CANNOT do certain types of work with my equipment. That's the result of a chosen set of tradeoffs and priorities.

People have a tendency to try and rank things on a single monotonic axis of worse to better, at a single point at time. It's extraordinarily myopic.

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MarshallG
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Re: DSLR future prediction by EOSHD from Andrew Reid
In reply to howardroark, 9 months ago

howardroark wrote:

Technically superior in what way? They have EVFs with the same resolution as a pentaprism viewfinder? They focus as fast or faster? They have the lens and accessory support of cameras with mirrors? If you enjoy your camera then that is really wonderful. If you think you chose the technically superior technology then I'm afraid your standards are not the same as every other person on the planet. I have yet to see a technically superior camera that will take over the world.

I think you nailed it. The man's article was basically a bunch of disheveled thoughts, very badly strung together.

Yes, smartphones are killing P&S camera sales. OTOH, smartphones may actually be good for DSLR sales, because at some point, it's either smartphone camera, or DSLR upgrade. Little remains in-between.

Which gets us to the EVF: It's a solution in search of a problem. At one point, we were film photographers, and we all thought, "Gee, when a digital SLR costs $ThisMuch$ and I can get *this much* quality, then I won't need film anymore!  And very few of us fought this transition; film really was a problem in search of a solution, and digital was it.

The SLR is not a perfect design solution: Providing a 100% magnification adds size and cost, mechanical issues adversely affect focusing, and it can limit frame rate at high speed shooting. But the EVF does not necessarily solve all of those problems, and it creates new ones.

The problem I have with EVF is this: In photography, there is a delta between what you see and what you get, and that is where the art comes in. An EVF makes this problem worse, because color/contrast/brightness of the EVF are all changeable, so I can't tell what I'm really going to get. In other words, an OVF gives me a baseline to work from, but an EVF does not.

We may or may not see Canon SLR's move to EVF, but at the end of the day, it's not some big problem we're looking to solve. The problem we want to solve is how to create better photos, capture better action, and be more creative. We could all see that digital was going to replace film, maybe a decade before it happened. But I don't think serious photographers are convinced that EVF will replace OVF, nor that an EVF is a pathway to better photos.

Besides that, at the end of the day, what matters most is whether our lenses will work.

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Old Listener
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Re: DSLR future prediction by EOSHD from Andrew Reid
In reply to Promit, 9 months ago

Promit wrote:

The big advantage of mirrorless isn't weight/size. That's become a surrogate advantage because it's much easier as a selling point, especially on the smaller chip m4/3 cameras. The point many are trying to make is that mirrorless cameras are technically superior -- in the long term, not right now. It always seem to catch DSLR people off guard that many of us would buy mirrorless EVEN IF size and price were no object.

Why buy an inferior mirrorless camera now because some future model might be superior to a DSLR in the ways that matter to me?

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Everhandy
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Re: DSLR future prediction by EOSHD from Andrew Reid
In reply to stan_pustylnik, 9 months ago

Very interesting article. Thanks for sharing.

I wonder what the actual ratio of consumer/enthusiast buyers would be in the digital camera market. I would suspect it is quite high, with enthusiasts making up an ever smaller number in the generally dwindling ranks. Even pros are finding it more and more difficult to make a buck. All thanks in part to social media and the smartphone which have taken the place of the previously ubiquitous Instamatics, Polaroids and snapshot cameras. The other factor is a complete apathy to photography in general. The people have come to expect more. The video era is upon us. Thank you YouTube.

Adapt or get left behind. If your camera sucks at video, your camera sucks, period. We enthusiasts are preoccupied with mindless minutia in IQ and DOF comparisons while the rest of the world is passing on by. Basically, we're whistling past the graveyard.

As an example, I'll share this experience, which is typical anymore.

I quite often share my photos on Facebook as no one has the time nor inclination to check out my Flickr Photostream let alone a photo album of prints. I endeavor to take great looking shots with a good camera and I have been praised on many occasions with accolades for not just subject matter but, image quality. If I must say so, my photo collection on the social media site is quite impressive over the years but, I generally get less than 10-15 likes per posting, much less quite often. On the other hand, my 20 year old friends that post smartphone pics of each others dogs dressed in skirts or drunken buddies passed out in the bathroom get 100's of "likes".

The article is absolutely right in that more people care less about nice clean shots than we like to think. The whole point of photography is sharing and if you are pursuing a pastime that nobody cares about anymore, is that a waste of time? Sort of like stamp collecting.

I for one will be taking more video. Whenever I take an interesting video, people come out of the woodwork to check it out and I'm beginning to enjoy the activity more myself. Quite frankly, everything's been done (to death) with still images, there are no new frontiers. My next camera will be the RX10.

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Richard
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Because you have been duped
In reply to Old Listener, 9 months ago

Into think that mirrorless and m43 are superior. Once you get one, you have to go to DPR to let everyone know good it is and run FF into the ground because of you find out it isn't superior to DSLR and you feel insecure and now have to justify your purchase to everyone.

Old Listener wrote:

Promit wrote:

The big advantage of mirrorless isn't weight/size. That's become a surrogate advantage because it's much easier as a selling point, especially on the smaller chip m4/3 cameras. The point many are trying to make is that mirrorless cameras are technically superior -- in the long term, not right now. It always seem to catch DSLR people off guard that many of us would buy mirrorless EVEN IF size and price were no object.

Why buy an inferior mirrorless camera now because some future model might be superior to a DSLR in the ways that matter to me?

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Richard
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You are behind the times.
In reply to jkoch2, 9 months ago

jkoch2 wrote:

But if, in 2015, an RX10ii with 4k video sells for under $1,200, hmmm....

The Samsung Galaxy Note 3 phone has a quad core processor and can take 4k video, not at $1200. But at $299 with a two year verizon contract. Watch the price drop on black Friday.

Samsung does what Canon cameras cannot do (except the 1d-c)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zESjnDoxQpc

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sportyaccordy
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Re: DSLR future prediction by EOSHD from Andrew Reid
In reply to Promit, 9 months ago

Promit wrote:

stan_pustylnik wrote:

For people who are stuck with large lenses they own already - DSLR is their future. However for people who start fresh - mirror-less is very appealing, because of compact size/weight in combination with good IQ.

The big advantage of mirrorless isn't weight/size. That's become a surrogate advantage because it's much easier as a selling point, especially on the smaller chip m4/3 cameras. The point many are trying to make is that mirrorless cameras are technically superior -- in the long term, not right now. It always seem to catch DSLR people off guard that many of us would buy mirrorless EVEN IF size and price were no object.

What tech can go on mirrorless cams that can't go onto DSLRs? Mirrorless cams are only just beginning to catch up in AF, for starters. They have the same sensorrs. Mirrorless lenses will never surpass DSLRs as they are limited by size. Etc. etc. Mirrorless big advantage is weight/size, period- which comes with the disadvantage of smaller lens selection and generally worse performance, be it battery life, AF, whatever.

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Promit
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Re: DSLR future prediction by EOSHD from Andrew Reid
In reply to sportyaccordy, 9 months ago

And that's a perfect display of why the actual photographers out there consider the DPR crowd to be amateur wannabes. The people here would rather own the biggest camera than have any clue about where the industry and money is actually going.

Keep an eye out to see what the Nikon DF does. Sounds like they may have finally gotten the memo you guys missed.

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Re: DSLR future prediction by EOSHD from Andrew Reid
In reply to howardroark, 9 months ago

howardroark wrote:

Promit wrote:

stan_pustylnik wrote:

For people who are stuck with large lenses they own already - DSLR is their future. However for people who start fresh - mirror-less is very appealing, because of compact size/weight in combination with good IQ.

The big advantage of mirrorless isn't weight/size. That's become a surrogate advantage because it's much easier as a selling point, especially on the smaller chip m4/3 cameras. The point many are trying to make is that mirrorless cameras are technically superior -- in the long term, not right now. It always seem to catch DSLR people off guard that many of us would buy mirrorless EVEN IF size and price were no object.

Technically superior in what way? They have EVFs with the same resolution as a pentaprism viewfinder? They focus as fast or faster? They have the lens and accessory support of cameras with mirrors? If you enjoy your camera then that is really wonderful. If you think you chose the technically superior technology then I'm afraid your standards are not the same as every other person on the planet. I have yet to see a technically superior camera that will take over the world.

I remember people saying the same thing in the late 1990s about digital photography and digital cameras of that time. They made the same arguments that and SLR was better at res., AF, buttons, etc. Same thing when AF came to replace MF.

In the end, the new tech matures, and the "old school" drops their old cameras and forgets they ever made an argument to defend those old cameras...

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stan_pustylnik
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Re: DSLR future prediction by EOSHD from Andrew Reid
In reply to Everhandy, 9 months ago

Everhandy wrote:

On the other hand, my 20 year old friends that post smartphone pics of each others dogs dressed in skirts or drunken buddies passed out in the bathroom get 100's of "likes".

Everhandy, your reply was worth of posting link! In your sample is something very important, that clicked my personal experience. I miss some never taken photos from apartment where we lived 13 years when I was little, school time parties, or camping adventures of youth. These could be with bad IQ, but silly - they don't exist!

My kids have cameras from age 5, and I store all photos they do in their bedrooms, soft toys, silly games and friends.

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Person is taking photos, not camera. When photograph is bad, it's because photographer doesn't know how to choose settings optimal to "own preferences". Then blames camera for bad IQ.
This is same as blaming car about arriving to wrong destination.
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Erick L
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Re: DSLR future prediction by EOSHD from Andrew Reid
In reply to Promit, 9 months ago

Promit wrote:

stan_pustylnik wrote:

For people who are stuck with large lenses they own already - DSLR is their future. However for people who start fresh - mirror-less is very appealing, because of compact size/weight in combination with good IQ.

The big advantage of mirrorless isn't weight/size. That's become a surrogate advantage because it's much easier as a selling point, especially on the smaller chip m4/3 cameras. The point many are trying to make is that mirrorless cameras are technically superior -- in the long term, not right now. It always seem to catch DSLR people off guard that many of us would buy mirrorless EVEN IF size and price were no object.

Can't agree with that. The only real advantage of mirrorless is equal quality in a smaller and lighter package. EVF vs OVF is subjective. Any other progress in performance isn't restricted to mirrorless.

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sportyaccordy
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Re: DSLR future prediction by EOSHD from Andrew Reid
In reply to Promit, 9 months ago

Promit wrote:

And that's a perfect display of why the actual photographers out there consider the DPR crowd to be amateur wannabes. The people here would rather own the biggest camera than have any clue about where the industry and money is actually going.

Keep an eye out to see what the Nikon DF does. Sounds like they may have finally gotten the memo you guys missed.

Can you tell me what technologies mirrorless cameras will get that DSLRs won't? What will the DF get that the D800E won't?

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MarshallG
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Re: DSLR future prediction by EOSHD from Andrew Reid
In reply to micronean, 9 months ago

howardroark wrote:

Promit wrote:

stan_pustylnik wrote:

For people who are stuck with large lenses they own already - DSLR is their future. However for people who start fresh - mirror-less is very appealing, because of compact size/weight in combination with good IQ.

The big advantage of mirrorless isn't weight/size. That's become a surrogate advantage because it's much easier as a selling point, especially on the smaller chip m4/3 cameras. The point many are trying to make is that mirrorless cameras are technically superior -- in the long term, not right now. It always seem to catch DSLR people off guard that many of us would buy mirrorless EVEN IF size and price were no object.

Technically superior in what way? They have EVFs with the same resolution as a pentaprism viewfinder? They focus as fast or faster? They have the lens and accessory support of cameras with mirrors? If you enjoy your camera then that is really wonderful. If you think you chose the technically superior technology then I'm afraid your standards are not the same as every other person on the planet. I have yet to see a technically superior camera that will take over the world.

I remember people saying the same thing in the late 1990s about digital photography and digital cameras of that time. They made the same arguments that and SLR was better at res., AF, buttons, etc. Same thing when AF came to replace MF.

In the end, the new tech matures, and the "old school" drops their old cameras and forgets they ever made an argument to defend those old cameras...

Sure, but what's the big advantage of EVF? How will it contribute to better image quality or improvement of the experience?
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