Olympus profit - the cat is out of the bag (a little early)

Started Oct 29, 2013 | Discussions
Aberaeron
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Re: on that forecasted 86% uptick
In reply to MichaelKJ, Nov 9, 2013

MichaelKJ wrote:

Eamon Hickey wrote:

Abrak wrote:

For the first half they sold 250k mirror less (market share around 17%). In the whole of last year they sold 710k. They are going for 410k in 2H and an 86% uptick in 1H/2H sales.

This one really raises my eyebrows. In addition to being an 86% uptick over the first half of the year, it would be a 41% year-on-year increase, as Olympus notes in their presentation. In a year when, so far, everybody, including Olympus, is down year-over-year in units and both Canon and Nikon are projecting year-over-year net unit decreases. (Canon's fiscal year is offset by 3 months, however.)

And for perspective, in Nikon's 2Q report, they project an 8% increase in ILC unit sales in 2H 2014 vs. 1H -- in other words, covering the exact same period where Olympus is projecting an 86% uptick.

I think Olympus must have several new ILC products coming in late winter/early spring 2014 for this forecast to be anything but bald fantasy, but, even so, it's so wildly optimistic compared to every other camera company, it makes me wonder what's being smoked in the Olympus offices.

Finally, even if they achieve that miracle, their mirrorless unit sales in FY 2014 (i.e. this year, more or less) will be 7% lower than last year. That actually would be a pretty good result, given that the market overall appears headed for a 10-20% decline in units, but again, it depends on a remarkable, and completely exceptional, performance from now until the end of March 2014.

One really does have to wonder what's behind such a wildly optimistic forecast. Let's hope that production isn't currently being ramped up based on a projected 86% increase in 2H.

I do think it is good that Olympus is finally dumping most of their compacts and downsizing. I also think most of us would agree that the E-M1 will be a success. However, given the down market and intense competition, I'm less optimistic about PEN sales.

Let's hope that they do ramp production up and flood the market with new advanced bargain cameras that people will buy by the truckload is what I say. Why not?

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Abrak
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Re: on that forecasted 86% uptick
In reply to MichaelKJ, Nov 10, 2013

MichaelKJ wrote:

One really does have to wonder what's behind such a wildly optimistic forecast. Let's hope that production isn't currently being ramped up based on a projected 86% increase in 2H.

I do think it is good that Olympus is finally dumping most of their compacts and downsizing. I also think most of us would agree that the E-M1 will be a success. However, given the down market and intense competition, I'm less optimistic about PEN sales.

Well there tends to be some second half shift in the business (not a lot last year) because it covers the Xmas period. And of course we have the E-M1 launch.

Speaking of which the E-M1 does seem to be doing well. Pre-orders are ahead of where the E-M5 was at a similar stage of the launch. Whether this will last is another matter. The E-M5 was a bit of a sleeper and gained sales on word of mouth - I tend to think that a lot of E-M5 owners were quick off the mark to hump to the E-M1.

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MichaelKJ
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Re: on that forecasted 86% uptick
In reply to Abrak, Nov 10, 2013

Abrak wrote:

MichaelKJ wrote:

One really does have to wonder what's behind such a wildly optimistic forecast. Let's hope that production isn't currently being ramped up based on a projected 86% increase in 2H.

I do think it is good that Olympus is finally dumping most of their compacts and downsizing. I also think most of us would agree that the E-M1 will be a success. However, given the down market and intense competition, I'm less optimistic about PEN sales.

Well there tends to be some second half shift in the business (not a lot last year) because it covers the Xmas period. And of course we have the E-M1 launch.

I agree and a 30%-40% increase in sales wouldn't surprise me. However, predicting an 86% increase seems to be setting yourself up for failure. Now, for example, if sales go up 40% Olympus will have to equivocate and say that while they failed to meet expectations, they were pleased that sales are headed in the right direction.

Speaking of which the E-M1 does seem to be doing well. Pre-orders are ahead of where the E-M5 was at a similar stage of the launch. Whether this will last is another matter. The E-M5 was a bit of a sleeper and gained sales on word of mouth - I tend to think that a lot of E-M5 owners were quick off the mark to hump to the E-M1.

While I expect the E-M1 to continue to do well, a company's highest priced model isn't what drives unit sales volume.  It will be interesting to see if the enthusiasm for the E-M5 & E-M1 is able to help generate improved sales of PENs. If not, Olympus may be facing the prospect of becoming a very small niche market camera company.

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Abrak
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Re: exit to Sony?
In reply to MichaelKJ, Nov 10, 2013

As I see it Olympus's digital imaging business is already far too small to continue as an independent entity. I wouldnt be surprised if once Oly finish rationalizing or closing its compact business, the mirrorless arm is absorbed by Sony.

There are several synergies for Sony. IS, processing and lens expertise to add to their business. Absorbing Oly's mirrorless will capture and ensure the continuation of Sony sensors sales. And most importantly there are US$500m a year of SG&A costs that can be rationalized when the business is absorbed into Sony's infrastructure.

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ApertureAcolyte
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Re: If you go by medical Olympus never had trouble
In reply to rovingtim, Nov 10, 2013

rovingtim wrote:

It's interesting that it's decline began in 2008 (the E3). And remember how everyone on the other forum was saying the E5 was selling like hotcakes? Can you spell D-E-L-U-S-I-O-N?

2008 was the year of the GFC. Delusional, yes you are.

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Kim Letkeman
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Re: just fan boys going at it, which is good!
In reply to Grobb, Nov 10, 2013

tron555 wrote:

dennis tennis wrote:

Olympus is the savior of this galaxy.

If nothing else, Olympus seems to be raising the bar, starting with the E-M5 and forcing Panasonic to try and keep up. Competition between these two companies are the only thing that are making the new m43 system increasing the IQ and helping to reduce prices, although they are still much too high, IMO.

Yes. Oly is good for Panny and vice versa. No question.

I like the GX7, but still find the images from the E-M5 look a bit sharper with slightly more detail.

Silly statement. Both can be tweaked to a huge extent. And then there is RAW for the enthusiasts who want real control.

I wonder if there will be a new and improved (slightly smaller/lighter/cheaper) E-M6 out early next year. I would like a weather sealed camera with 5-axis IBIS, but with better ergonomics (better grip) than the E-M5 has.

I thought the EM1 was that body ...

A new 'shutter shock' proof shutter would also be a nice feature, (not that everyone is having major problems with it on all lenses), but it would be a nice new feature.

The G5, GH3, G6, GX7 and GM1 all have one of those. Go figure ...

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Grobb
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Re: just fan boys going at it, which is good!
In reply to Kim Letkeman, Nov 10, 2013

Kim Letkeman wrote:

tron555 wrote:

[snip]

I like the GX7, but I still find the images from the E-M5 look a bit sharper with slightly more detail.

Silly statement. Both can be tweaked to a huge extent. And then there is RAW for the enthusiasts who want real control.

No... it was not a “silly statement”, it’s what is called a personal observation or opinion! You need to understand the difference between the two as you seem to feel only your opinion is the correct one.

I wonder if there will be a new and improved (slightly smaller/lighter/cheaper) E-M6 out early next year. I would like a weather sealed camera with 5-axis IBIS, but with better ergonomics (better grip) than the E-M5 has.

I thought the EM1 was that body ...

Since the E-M1 is ‘obviously’ NOT smaller, lighter or cheaper than the E-M5, you should really consider taking some reading comprehension classes "or" only know what you are talking about.

A new 'shutter shock' proof shutter would also be a nice feature, (not that everyone is having major problems with it on all lenses), but it would be a nice new feature.

The G5, GH3, G6, GX7 and GM1 all have one of those. Go figure ...

Let me rephrase the question for you since you apparently did not understand my statement, “Without needing to switch back and forth between and electronic shutter and mechanical shutter”. That switching back and forth is kind of a Mickey Mouse/work around solution until they figure out the SS issue and resolve it one and for all. I feel the old mechanical shutter should become obsolete and a new Global Electronic Shutter should replace it next year, IMO.

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YouDidntDidYou
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Nope, wishful thinking
In reply to Abrak, Nov 10, 2013

Abrak wrote:

As I see it Olympus's digital imaging business is already far too small to continue as an independent entity. I wouldnt be surprised if once Oly finish rationalizing or closing its compact business, the mirrorless arm is absorbed by Sony.

There are several synergies for Sony. IS, processing and lens expertise to add to their business. Absorbing Oly's mirrorless will capture and ensure the continuation of Sony sensors sales. And most importantly there are US$500m a year of SG&A costs that can be rationalized when the business is absorbed into Sony's infrastructure.

"If Apple had shut down it's heavily loss-making PC business in 2000, it would never have been able to launch iPod, iTunes, iPad etc " said Tero Kuittinen....
Anyways I got lots of thoughts on Olympus imaging future direction, products and their latest financial slideshow...will come back to this in the next few days.

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Eamon Hickey
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small note
In reply to Abrak, Nov 10, 2013

Abrak wrote:

For the first half they sold 250k mirror less (market share around 17%). In the whole of last year they sold 710k.

This is a small thing, but just for accuracy's sake:

Not sure where you found the 710k figure for last year's ILC unit volume, but if by "last year", you mean Olympus's last fiscal year (FY2013), their ILC unit sales were actually 590k. You can find this in their FY 2013 earnings report but you have to do some digging around. It reveals a total digital camera unit volume of 5.69 million and a compact unit volume of 5.1 million; a little subtraction yields the ILC unit volume: 590K.

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dennis tennis
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Re: Yes folks, this is the real global civil war that will end life
In reply to Grobb, Nov 10, 2013

tron555 wrote:

Kim Letkeman wrote:

tron555 wrote:

[snip]

I like the GX7, but I still find the images from the E-M5 look a bit sharper with slightly more detail.

Silly statement. Both can be tweaked to a huge extent. And then there is RAW for the enthusiasts who want real control.

No... it was not a “silly statement”, it’s what is called a personal observation or opinion! You need to understand the difference between the two as you seem to feel only your opinion is the correct one.

I wonder if there will be a new and improved (slightly smaller/lighter/cheaper) E-M6 out early next year. I would like a weather sealed camera with 5-axis IBIS, but with better ergonomics (better grip) than the E-M5 has.

I thought the EM1 was that body ...

Since the E-M1 is ‘obviously’ NOT smaller, lighter or cheaper than the E-M5, you should really consider taking some reading comprehension classes "or" only know what you are talking about.

A new 'shutter shock' proof shutter would also be a nice feature, (not that everyone is having major problems with it on all lenses), but it would be a nice new feature.

The G5, GH3, G6, GX7 and GM1 all have one of those. Go figure ...

Let me rephrase the question for you since you apparently did not understand my statement, “Without needing to switch back and forth between and electronic shutter and mechanical shutter”. That switching back and forth is kind of a Mickey Mouse/work around solution until they figure out the SS issue and resolve it one and for all. I feel the old mechanical shutter should become obsolete and a new Global Electronic Shutter should replace it next year, IMO.

No folks, the end of the world did not start with Skynet.  The  end of human existence started  with the four third consortium, leading to the escalating conflict between Olympus and Panasonic.  Soon, traditional boundary of hatred such as Democrats vs Republicans, Jews vs Arab, Muslims vs Christians, Catholics vs Protestants, North vs South, East vs West will disappear and be replaced by Oly vs Pany TO THE DEATH!  Husbans will kill their wives, Mother will kill their children, brothers kills brothers.  Billiions will die until Oly and Pany fanboys created the ultimate four third nanobot printer virus which turns all living tissue into four third sized waffers

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Kim Letkeman
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Re: just fan boys going at it, which is good!
In reply to Grobb, Nov 10, 2013

tron555 wrote:

Kim Letkeman wrote:

tron555 wrote:

[snip]

I like the GX7, but I still find the images from the E-M5 look a bit sharper with slightly more detail.

Silly statement. Both can be tweaked to a huge extent. And then there is RAW for the enthusiasts who want real control.

No... it was not a “silly statement”, it’s what is called a personal observation or opinion! You need to understand the difference between the two as you seem to feel only your opinion is the correct one.

You made an observation that Panny images are less saturated than Oly images. That statement is at best incomplete. So let's complete it:

  • Maybe you meant that Panny images are less saturated at default settings. This would be complete, but silly since it is so trivially changed.
  • Maybe you meant that Oly images remain more saturated when both cameras are set to their highest possible saturation and contrast settings. This would again be complete but would be relevant to a microscopic group of people who don't mind ruining their images. Again, silly.
  • Maybe you meant that randomly adjusting the cameras' settings seems to always leave Oly images more saturated. This, of course, would be pure nonsense.

So I don't understand your comment. There is no way to complete your "opinion" to make it meaningful without also making it silly. Ergo, I believe that my initial reaction remains quite accurate.

I wonder if there will be a new and improved (slightly smaller/lighter/cheaper) E-M6 out early next year. I would like a weather sealed camera with 5-axis IBIS, but with better ergonomics (better grip) than the E-M5 has.

I thought the EM1 was that body ...

Since the E-M1 is ‘obviously’ NOT smaller, lighter or cheaper than the E-M5, you should really consider taking some reading comprehension classes "or" only know what you are talking about.

I comprehended perfectly. It is you that is muddled and befuddled. You made two statements:

1) I wonder if ...

2) I would like ...

You never said that they were related (seriously ... read them again.) So I answered your second statement, which dealt with feature enhancements and not with size and cost.

Thus, my statement stands. The camera you asked for exists already.

A new 'shutter shock' proof shutter would also be a nice feature, (not that everyone is having major problems with it on all lenses), but it would be a nice new feature.

The G5, GH3, G6, GX7 and GM1 all have one of those. Go figure ...

Let me rephrase the question for you since you apparently did not understand my statement,

Cogency is not your strength.

“Without needing to switch back and forth between and electronic shutter and mechanical shutter”. That switching back and forth is kind of a Mickey Mouse/work around solution until they figure out the SS issue and resolve it one and for all. I feel the old mechanical shutter should become obsolete and a new Global Electronic Shutter should replace it next year, IMO.

And it apparently is not getting better.

If there were a simple solution to shutter shock, then it is a good bet that the huge selection of bodies that display it would have used the solution already. We're at generation 4 at least and it is still an obvious issue.

You can feel anything you like, but the engineers are tasked with solving the problem and your fatuous characterization of the existing electronic shutter solutions as "Mickey Mouse" does not eliminate the fact that this solution works really well for shooting many subjects at very high magnification.

It is thus not Mickey Mouse at all. It is simply a good solution with certain technological limitations. But that does not stop Panny from offering it across the whole lineup now. Oly, for reasons that I cannot quite understand, seem to be choosing to just let the shutter wreck the images.

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Grobb
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Re: just fan boys going at it, which is good!
In reply to Kim Letkeman, Nov 10, 2013

Kim Letkeman wrote:

tron555 wrote:

Kim Letkeman wrote:

tron555 wrote:

[snip]

I like the GX7, but I still find the images from the E-M5 look a bit sharper with slightly more detail.

Silly statement. Both can be tweaked to a huge extent. And then there is RAW for the enthusiasts who want real control.

No... it was not a “silly statement”, it’s what is called a personal observation or opinion! You need to understand the difference between the two as you seem to feel only your opinion is the correct one.

You made an observation that Panny images are less saturated than Oly images. That statement is at best incomplete. So let's complete it:

[Snip irrelevant drivel]

No, again, I did not mention the word "Saturated", the word I used was Sharp, there is a difference!

So I don't understand your comment. (sounds like another comprehension problem)There is no way to complete your "opinion" to make it meaningful without also making it silly. Ergo, I believe that my initial reaction remains quite accurate. (It made no sense and was not accurate)

I wonder if there will be a new and improved (slightly smaller/lighter/cheaper) E-M6 out early next year. I would like a weather sealed camera with 5-axis IBIS, but with better ergonomics (better grip) than the E-M5 has.

I thought the EM1 was that body ...

Since the E-M1 is ‘obviously’ NOT smaller, lighter or cheaper than the E-M5, you should really consider taking some reading comprehension classes "or" only know what you are talking about.

[Snip irrelevant drivel]

Thus, my statement stands. The camera you asked for exists already.

So, you still think the E-M1 is smaller/lighter/cheaper than the E-M5, you are really something if you still believe that :/

A new 'shutter shock' proof shutter would also be a nice feature, (not that everyone is having major problems with it on all lenses), but it would be a nice new feature.

The G5, GH3, G6, GX7 and GM1 all have one of those. Go figure ...

No they do not, they have two different shutter mechanisms (Electronic and Mechanical shutters) which take user intervention and must be used for different applications which have limitations. To me, that is a "Mickey Mouse" way to handle the SS issue and not the ultimate solution!

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rovingtim
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Re: If you go by medical Olympus never had trouble
In reply to ApertureAcolyte, Nov 11, 2013

ApertureAcolyte wrote:

rovingtim wrote:

It's interesting that it's decline began in 2008 (the E3). And remember how everyone on the other forum was saying the E5 was selling like hotcakes? Can you spell D-E-L-U-S-I-O-N?

2008 was the year of the GFC. Delusional, yes you are.

That would make sense if all other camera manufacturers suffered similar declines. All did not.

I repeat D-E-L-U-S-I-O-N

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Abrak
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Re: small note
In reply to Eamon Hickey, Nov 14, 2013

Eamon Hickey wrote:

Abrak wrote:

For the first half they sold 250k mirror less (market share around 17%). In the whole of last year they sold 710k.

This is a small thing, but just for accuracy's sake:

Not sure where you found the 710k figure for last year's ILC unit volume, but if by "last year", you mean Olympus's last fiscal year (FY2013), their ILC unit sales were actually 590k. You can find this in their FY 2013 earnings report but you have to do some digging around. It reveals a total digital camera unit volume of 5.69 million and a compact unit volume of 5.1 million; a little subtraction yields the ILC unit volume: 590K.

You are indeed correct. I am not 100% sure where I got the 710k sales figure from - I keep most of the figures in my head. Possibly it was their original forecast for unit sales in the current year.

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Abrak
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Re: small note
In reply to Abrak, Nov 14, 2013

Thom Hogan seems pretty much spot on here....

http://www.dslrbodies.com/newsviews/tough-camera-questions.html

Second half is mostly about mirrorless.

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