History & Future of the dSLR

Started Jun 13, 2013 | Discussions
ragspix
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Re: A headache for manufacturers
In reply to Grevture, Jun 16, 2013

Hmmm... performance ... maybe..

But just think how much a 800mm prime would weigh for a N1 body...

Are we at a threshold of size? Would smaller lighter primes drive the current batch of expensive lens owners to a smaller form factor?

Hmmm...

Rags

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chipmaster
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Re: History & Future of the dSLR
In reply to Biological_Viewfinder, Jun 16, 2013

The future for DLS manufactures is short and grim

The majority of the population is satisified with capture the moment.  It can be a graduation, a b-day, a wedding, or a host of other events.  We've all seen it, 90% of the people pull out their smartphone, a few have a P&S, then there is the one guy ( usually me ) with the DLSR and lenses.

I almost give away my pictures, and I have few people who want these timeless shots.   I think the convenience of producing the image has really lowered the standards we are willing to accept.  This comes in audio, visual, really everything we've traded conveniences for quality/art etc.   There is no going back, that is progress.

Moore's law has commidtized electronics, the bits and capture of those bits are a commodity.   There will be a few specialzed needs/demands for high performance image capture.  It'll be interesting how CaNikon approach this.   They have disappearing P&S, shrinking business outside imaging and the core high end imaging getting commoditized and shrinking.

For them to survive they need to think out of the box, and if you look they aren't moving very fast at all.  Soon, very soon sales of DSLR will be to mostly gearheads and pro's who have to compete on the fewere and fewer paid gigs.   Problem for the pros and the manufactures, for us amatuers, my D4 and D600 will do fine and I can pick up my D5/D900 for cheap when the D6 comes out.  I really don't need anymore.  The DSLR has come to the point like cars and computers.  Unless you have an image to keep or $ to make you only get a new one when the old one breaks down or when your ego and pocket books says i got to buy a new one.  Reality the new one will do very little to produce a meaningful better image.

Nikon/Canon will go the way of DEC/Datageneral/Buroughs-Sperry etc. etc.

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CFynn
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Re: History & Future of the dSLR
In reply to Biological_Viewfinder, Jun 16, 2013

Biological_Viewfinder wrote:

No one will ever take a picture that lasts the test of time;

Of course some will - because content, lighting and composition are what make pictures that stand the test of time.

==
“No photographer is as good as the simplest camera.”
- Edward Steichen

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pipee
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Re: History & Future of the dSLR
In reply to CFynn, Jun 16, 2013

CFynn wrote:

Biological_Viewfinder wrote:

No one will ever take a picture that lasts the test of time;

Of course some will - because content, lighting and composition are what make pictures that stand the test of time.

No, it is uniqueness that makes a picture stand the test of time. The internet is overloaded with pictures that have perfect lighting and composition and nobody gives more than 1 second attention to them.

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CFynn
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Re: History & Future of the dSLR
In reply to pipee, Jun 16, 2013

pipee wrote:

CFynn wrote:

Biological_Viewfinder wrote:

No one will ever take a picture that lasts the test of time;

Of course some will - because content, lighting and composition are what make pictures that stand the test of time.

No, it is uniqueness that makes a picture stand the test of time. The internet is overloaded with pictures that have perfect lighting and composition and nobody gives more than 1 second attention to them.

Well I thought uniqueness was covered by "content"

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Grevture
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Re: A headache for manufacturers
In reply to ragspix, Jun 16, 2013

ragspix wrote:

Hmmm... performance ... maybe..

But just think how much a 800mm prime would weigh for a N1 body...

Are we at a threshold of size? Would smaller lighter primes drive the current batch of expensive lens owners to a smaller form factor?

Hmmm...

Don't forget one very large factor for getting these expensive primes is subject isolation and DOF control, and there is nothing to be gained from a smaller form factor there (that is, smaller sensor).

For much of everyday pictures, sure. And that is probably exactly why Nikon went the route they did with the Nikon 1 cameras. But for the kind of images where you are prepared to go the extra mile to get exactly the result you want, there the full frame cameras and there relatively large and expensive lenses will prevail.

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myseventhlife
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Re: History & Future of the dSLR
In reply to Biological_Viewfinder, Jun 16, 2013

Biological_Viewfinder wrote:

Perhaps the biggest investment you could make for yourself is to stop buying equipment altogether. Because no matter what you do, in a decade a D800 camera will be something so pathetic and useless, you'll wonder why people even talked about some utterly insignificant difference between the D800 and D800e. It won't matter, and you wouldn't be caught dead shooting that old piece of junk anyway, either of them. So you could save yourself 10s of 1000s of dollars and just stop now.

It's almost impossible to think about, isn't it? I can't stop. I know that. I enjoy it too much to stop. But I also understand that in a decade (possibly and even probably less), I'm really not going to care at all anyway. I'll be using something far better by then.

In a decade or so you will simply be using something that you will have paid top dollar to get anyhow and that will soon, in turn, become obsolete as well. Evolution will never stop, so either enjoy life and photography with what is available right here right now (which is NOT THAT expensive anyway) or you will always be waiting for the right moment to get something cheap and insuperable which will nevertheless never come. Then, and while life always goes on irreversibly fast, you will be regretting passing by the equipment that is available to us at this very moment - and that equipment is more than enough to allow us to express ourselves creatively via that utterly exciting art that is called photography.

Regards

www.fzerophotography.eu

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ragspix
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Re: A headache for manufacturers
In reply to Grevture, Jun 16, 2013

Grevture wrote:

ragspix wrote:

Hmmm... performance ... maybe..

But just think how much a 800mm prime would weigh for a N1 body...

Are we at a threshold of size? Would smaller lighter primes drive the current batch of expensive lens owners to a smaller form factor?

Hmmm...

Don't forget one very large factor for getting these expensive primes is subject isolation and DOF control, and there is nothing to be gained from a smaller form factor there (that is, smaller sensor).

Well shooting with a 5.6 800mm at a far distance gives bokeh

For much of everyday pictures, sure. And that is probably exactly why Nikon went the route they did with the Nikon 1 cameras. But for the kind of images where you are prepared to go the extra mile to get exactly the result you want, there the full frame cameras and there relatively large and expensive lenses will prevail.

Prevail? in numbers or quality...

My guess is the N1 system will play a larger role in Nikon product offerings, they just got to get the engineering/quality closer to dslrs.

They just came out with a 32mm 1.2 w manual override ( pro-like lens) for the system. It is a departure from the cost conscious product base now.

We'll see

Rags

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Grevture
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Re: A headache for manufacturers
In reply to ragspix, Jun 16, 2013

ragspix wrote:

Grevture wrote:

ragspix wrote:

Hmmm... performance ... maybe..

But just think how much a 800mm prime would weigh for a N1 body...

Are we at a threshold of size? Would smaller lighter primes drive the current batch of expensive lens owners to a smaller form factor?

Hmmm...

Don't forget one very large factor for getting these expensive primes is subject isolation and DOF control, and there is nothing to be gained from a smaller form factor there (that is, smaller sensor).

Well shooting with a 5.6 800mm at a far distance gives bokeh

But a lens that produces a similar result as a 800/5.6 on full frame will be about as big and cumbersome, not to mention expensive also with a smaller sensor. And then you might as well use a full frame and get the benefit of a larger sensor area (since the overall package will not be smaller, nor lighter or cheaper using a smaller sensor).

For much of everyday pictures, sure. And that is probably exactly why Nikon went the route they did with the Nikon 1 cameras. But for the kind of images where you are prepared to go the extra mile to get exactly the result you want, there the full frame cameras and there relatively large and expensive lenses will prevail.

Prevail? in numbers or quality...

I think numbers for FF might increase a bit, prices are not that frightfully high anymore (think D600 and Eos 6D). The quality will, if anything increase ever so slightly - normal development of both optics and sensors.

APS-C will probably over time become more and more a mirrorless domain as AF without mirrors and EVF:s get steadily better and better. Also here the quality will slowly increase due to normal technological development.

My guess is the N1 system will play a larger role in Nikon product offerings, they just got to get the engineering/quality closer to dslrs.

Agree, I think it will gradually become a more diverse offering, spanning from point-and-shootish cameras to more enthusiast-oriented ones.

They just came out with a 32mm 1.2 w manual override ( pro-like lens) for the system. It is a departure from the cost conscious product base now.

I hope this (together with the V2) is a sign of them diversifying the 1 system a bit, I think there is room in that system for more then just the cost concious buyers. Think a V3 with a decent sized buffer so one can use those high speed modes for a bit longer periods ... And compability with Nikons CLS flash system. And some other details. You saw the firmware upgrade where they fixed one major (in my opinion) shortcoming? Now you can use continuous focusing also with AF-S lenses on the FT-1 adapter.

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By the way, film is not dead.
It just smell funny

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